Pre Market TAO Wednesday 7-8-09

ES Futures overnight have traded up against the 882 resistance zone all night. Us dollar is up and Treasuries are up. Gold / Oats / Crude / all down .. And Nat Gas is very low ( UNG could be a buy down here)..... Asia down and Euro stks flat to down.....

Reports
Oil inventories 10:30 am et
10 yr Treasury Action 1200 noon
Consumer credit report at 3:00 pm et.....

PBG and FDO report earnings b/o .

Looks like the consumer will be the topic of the day.... Alcoa is reporting a/c . I think the bad news is all ready baked in the cake. We are looking for guidance.

The SPX Head and Shoulders is an all eyes event. So we watch as the Bulls blugen themselves against the ES Futures 882 resistance/support line...

Today I will be a Bear and sell rally's. The market has had 3 down days in row so we could see the bulls come out swing'n or at least give the bears a few infield flies to cram down their throats.

Spy looks to open flat around the 8850 Pivot .....
8900 - 8875 will be a good entry for a short position with a stop above 8925 ...... Target is 8750-8725
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9:05 et am ......first short spy 8874 entry
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10:40 et am.......looks like a range trade market so far Nyse tick is not showing any big buyers or sellers and XL's are split and look like they are moving to middle of yesterday range.
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11:00 et am looks like the teck and indus sector will hold the market down this am. Testing yesterday spy lows
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11;05 et am closed out spy short at 8809 .... tick is not showing big sellers down here ,,,oops! there it goes .... first big -1100 down tick at the break of yesterday close......now we wait for the next rally (pull back) to short again.....somewhere between the 20 and 50 sma on the 5 min chart.
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11:20 et am .....all the XL sectors are beginning to break down . ... Looks like the range trade is turning to a down trend . We don't chase this down. We wait for the pull back.... we could get a bounce at 8750
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12:15 et pm ES Futures is now testing the H&S neck line at 870 I dont think it will break just because everybody expects it to break .......I think it may bounce here.. the market gods don't like to give traders the easy call....
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12:45 et pm...... got an M1 ( mid level pivot line between s1 and s2) bounce spy 8715
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Looks like Treasury Note Auction was OK for Treasury buyers. The buyers got lower yields and and paid higher bond prices. This is not as attractive to investors. Lower yields will push cash into equities and commodities over time. Unless this is a resurgence of the safety play.
Inflation means the prices of equities and commodities go higher. This also Drives the US Dollar lower because foreign and domestic buyers are less inclined to buy these bonds in US Dollars = less demand for dollars. There are going to be many more of these auctions potentially pushing more demand or less demand for the dollar ie: more potential for inflation or deflation.
But Wait! It's Uncle Ben to the rescue! He'll just fire up the printing press and buy up the extra notes ... ie: monetizing the debt..... Oh MY Hero ! We are saved! I wish I could pay my bills like that.
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1:50 et pm ..........spy is moving up to a reload area 8800- 8825 is just above the 50%fib ...this little rally looks like a 3 wave push but cant tell until it is finished. Haven't touched the 50 sma or the vwap yet.
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3:25 et pm..... xl's and spy are showing signs of pos divergence ...This looks like a good place to short the close but not my preference. I just don't like to trade against rising price with rising volume and a Pos tick. Although price looks where it should to take a short, I think we are in a transition move for some up side into the close. I made good money on the first leg down today and I'm not going to risk giving it back.