Pre Market TAO Wed 7-15-09

Es Futures took a good move to the up side over night.
US Dollar is at bottom of multi week channel and pointing down.
Crude / Gold is up


The H&S neckline has been broken back to the up side and will be considered by most as a failure of the formation .....but dont get in a big hurry there ......the real test is coming up today or tomorrow. the top of the right shoulder... if this is violated then this H&S pattern is nullified.

Spy will gap up to 9125 area at open ......my plan is to watch the open and wait 30 min's

The market is very over bought as of yesterday but it could remain that way as long as the US Dollar remains weak.

You can expect the big boys will start to pull off at 5% gain from Mon. about spy 9150 to 9200 to 9300.

This Whole move has been a BIG short squeeze. .... low volume big divergence ......
Here is My plan for the next few days.... good trading!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11et am.....relative volume is down on this am rally 61 M vs 53 m.... Short Squeeze
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:15 et pm Divergence is building this could be It relative vol is still down 96m vs 91m..
this looks to be top of wave 5 .
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2:23 et pm The market has the buyers all worked up in to a frenzie .... this is not the place to buy..... the broker banks are pumping it hard.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:00 pm really pouring on the coals volume has heated up! Above relative vol 126m vs 141m
this is the final spike of an extended w5 or the breakout move above H&S upper neck
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:30 That is 6% run in 3 days.... wow! There should be profit takers over the next week.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:50 et pmlooks like we may be turning here .... so Im short at spy 9330 with a stop above todays high... this is a swing trade .... I expect to hold for several days.