Triangle Top SPX 10-1-09

Asymmetrical Triangles Don't usually form as the final wave of a Top. They are typically a wave 4 formation.

This Triangle is not complete ....but if this plays out over the next two days This suggests we could see another leg up.


This formation at this top of a Bear Wedge could become very whippy .

I Don't intend to play the first break up or down. I expect both will be false.
The safest play here is to get long above SPX 1077 or short below SPX 1040... Otherwise trade the Spx 1045 to 1070 zone as a sideways trending channel.

The biggest thing we have been fighting here is Bi- Polar market data ... There are so many conflicting fundamental Data signals it will be difficult to see a clear direction until we see a clean break above 1082 or below 1040.

It is still easy for the media people to make a Bear or Bull case in either direction and this creates confusion.

The most reliable approach will be to take the position that the news and Data is already in the charts and stay with chart formation, pure technical and Elliot Wave analysis.

Swing Day Setup Wed 9-30-09

SPY Swing Day Setup

whenever the last trading day opens higher than previous day and closes at the low, we call that a swing trade setup . Most of the time they play out the next day as a sell day.

This also lines up with the 60 min Spy chart ABC wave structure,

And The Transportation Index down day setup. with the Weighted Moving Average and the Volume Weighted Moving Average Crossover along with the DMI all pointed down.

This is all happening all at the top of the long term Bearish Rising Wedge.

My plan today is to sell the Spy at 106.35 -50 and exit at or below 105.00 down to an extreme of102.50

Pre Market TAO Tues 9-29-09

Spx 500 looks to be set up for the final leg of this 3 wave push .

Overnight Asia was a bit mixed ,,,,flat to a bit positive.

Europe is weak and the Euro Dollar is falling against the US Dollar.

Oil is down ...

I expect the market will open A bit weak down to low spx 1055-57 's and then make a move to the 1070 - 72

my plan is to buy spy down to 105.75
and exit spy 107.00 up to 107.50

Market TAO Monday 9-28-09

Overnight ES Futures sold off then rallied to Friday high.

The Momentum is to the upside after 3 days down.

the US Dollar is showing continued weakness.

Oil is down

My plan today is to buy Spy in mid to upper 104's and exit at or above 105.50 to 106.00

Market TAO Friday 9-25-09

Overnight ES remained relatively flat.
Asisa sold off a bit
Europe is up

Economic reports due 8:30 and 10 et

my plan today is to sell Spy from 105.75 up to 106.29 and Exit at or below 104.00
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my Bmo revision to plan

Es just sold down to 1047.77 and Spy will open at 104.50

sell at open spy 104.60 and exit at or below 103.40
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12:40 et
Spy trade
Exit 50% on this next pulse down from 104.30 and move stop down to 104.40
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1;26 et Spy .....pull stop down to 104.24 and consider an exit at or below 104.00
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End of Day SPX 500 9-24-09

We had a drop in first 30 min's and chop the rest of day day which has been typical of the controlled market lately.

Here are the support/ resistance zones for Friday.

With the funky Rimm report I'm not sure how the markets will take it in the AM but I believe we are beginning to see the true weakness of the consumer and I expect we will see more of the same in the next 3 weeks.

This meager drop of honey for the bears should pull them out of their caves in the AM.
The Dip buyers hid in the bushes today but they are not gone. They are waiting to mug the anorexic bears in the next few days. Maybe Monday.

My plan is to sell up to Spx 1062 and exit at or below 1040.

I will see how the Asians and Euro's play this overnight and will have a better focus before market open Bmo.

Market TAO Wed 9-24-09

Overnight ES traded in a tight range but after a positive jobs report we are trading above yesterday US market close.

The Past two swing trade setups were no great winners and with the bullishness in the market lately , i am a bit skeptical of this one . We will see how the AM session unfolds. I would rather be buying the dips.

The Asia and European markets have shown weakness and oil is down as well.
US dollar is flat

The Bond market is looking like it wants to break to the up side today. I'll be watching the TLT at the top of an Asymmetrical Triangle.

Engulfing Red Candle and Dark Cloud Cover

Spx 500 Daily Chart 09-23-09

This is an Engulfing Candle Pattern
which is also a Dark Cloud Cover. Key Reversal Formation.

This also known as a Swing Signal when the close is at the low of the day.

Very Nasty sell off in last hour of trade right after the FOMC report.

This could very well mark the turn of the trend.
The next few days will tell us what is next .
Tomorrow, I expect to sell any rally up to Spx 1070 and Exit at or below 1060

Market TAO Wed 9-23-09 FOMC DAy

I Usually do not trade on Fed days and today is no exception. The market is clearly poised to make a move to Spx 1120 . But how it gets there is the risky part. The past few Fomc days have been up rallys all the way to the announcement and beyond ... But if they say any thing about raising rates or reducing quanitave easing we could see a swift set back in this rally ....I expect trading to be relatively flat up to 2:15 est .

Market Tao 09-22-09

Overnight Es Futures moved up to top of last week range.
Asia was flat
Europe is up
US dollar is down

Fomc and G20 meeting comming up.

Maybe a quiet day .

My plan is to stay with buy the dip mode.

Spy will gap up to the 107.10 zone.

I plan to buy in the high Spy 105's to low 106's and exit in low 107's

Market TAO Mon 9-21-09

ES is trading down overnight into 23% 9-14 fib line at 1053

Aisa was down

Europe is down

Spy will open down at 105.80


My plan today is to buy spy 105.70 and exit 106.50

The Week Ahead 9-20-09

Spx 500 Chart
Price has popped out above the riseing wedge upper trend line. This could mark the usual over shoot typical of the climax of wedge tops.

The Ascending Triangle in last two days is a head scratcher here. This could signal a final push up. The market is clearly headed for the Dow 10,000. The Transports are leading the way and the Spx will most likely follow along in the same general direction. Earnings will begin to trickle in next week and the Big Houses are in pump mode with all the upgrades last week ....expect more.

The dark blue oval is the upper target the orange dotted line is the long range trend line off the all time high 1576 on Oct 07 .

It's hard to say how price will get there in the next 7-10 days. The ovals are the probable reaction areas for price corrections and direction change.

I Think the market is topping out up here but it may take a few more weeks before we see Mr. Market's real intent.

• The Markets are at extremes for now.
• The Bullishness is at 2004 levels.
• Vix is at the 10 year low trend line.
• There are a record number of stocks above the 200 day moving adverage ...
• The Us Dollar is at 18 month extreme lows.
• Side line cash is moving out of money markets and more in to better intrest and dividend earning vehicles and not as much is avaliable to go into common equities.

Untill the fever breaks ,if you want to be in the market, it is safer to remain in a buy the dips mode with tight stops.

Market TAO 9-18-09

SPX 500 Head and Shoulders Pattern..

Es Futures are up to the 1066 area at the open...

I am neutral at open , news tape is ok and dollar is still weak . today is options exp so it could be choppy.

we will see how first 30 mins go.

Bear Rally

WoW! Hang In there Bear. There is only two ways down ...Straight down or sideways down.

Market TAO 9-17-09

Spx Is reaching the top of rising wedge . expect a return to lower trend line over the next few days.

my plan today is to buy at Spx 1057- 60 area and exit at 1070-75 .

Tues Market TAO 9-08-09

Had a Great Long Holiday weekend......The World is in rally mode today..... it's all up ...refer to chart i published last week Spx looks to have resistance at 1036 - 40 area . I think we drift sideways from here this week and remain in the 990 to 1040 range. I f price breaks above 1040 then we will be off to the races toward 1100.... The US Dollar continues to show continued weakness so keep a sharp eye on that .....these rally's are tied directly to Dollar and Investors who live out of USA are flooding in to the market because their currency will buy much more equities at great values. The Mutual fund sector as well are long only groups which continue to feed this up momentum.. I for one will wait today and see how the open session plays out....

If we get to SPX 1040 zone I will put on a sell short play back down to 990 zone with a stop above 1050

Thurs Market TAO 09-03-09

Es Futures are trading up over night.
Asia was Mixed and Europe is up.

The Us Dollar is down and at a key lower support line at the apex of a asymmetrical triangle daily chart.

Oil and Gold are up.

Spx chart showed sideways trading yesterday. within the shaded blue zones. At the open I expect it to gap up and run to the upper blue zone Spx 1005 -10. There is a convergence of long and short term trend lines there and Uber resistance. Sorry the chart looks so busy, just follow the colors.

The two up sloping purple lines are the Apex of a Rising Bear Wedge.
What we are seeing is a break down out of that Rising Bear Wedge on Sept 1st.

Watch my Video on Wedges http://neboxian.blogspot.com/2008/08/wedge-rising-and-falling-chart-pattern.html

I expect price will gap and run to the upper blue shaded area and trade back down toward Spx 987 lower blue zone.

I don't trade the day before a holiday weekend to many whip saws. but if you got to be in, trade light. We could see a sell off after European close......I don't know many traders who would want to risk the long weekend. But as day traders, we are out buy end of day.
Have a great Weekend ...Summer is almost over.

Wed Market TAO 9-02-09

ES Futures overnight sold down to 940 from a high of 1002 .... and looks to have stabilized.
Asia and Europe followed yesterdays US market sell off to the down side.

after a big down day we could expect a retracement back up to the SPX 1010 support level which should now become resistance.

The news tape is reasonably good but I think for the day, markets will be depressed and will consolidate sideways for the rest of the week.

The range today is the shaded blue area and the wider teal shaded area for rest of week. With a bias to the down side.

The Bulls are not going to just lay down here. I would expect a bit of a fight down to Spx 970

Spy plan is to wait for retracement to 101.50 and enter a short sell down to 98.75

Pre Market TAO Tues 9-01-09

Overnight ES Futures traded down to 1010 support level I have on Friday's chart.
This is also a Key upward trend line support for the July rally. I don't think the US equity markets will follow this overnight market into the daily session. But this is a Holiday week and trading will be erratic. Asia was up and Europe is down.
US Dollar is holding to a bit of strength.

we have Construction and ISM reports due at 10 am est and Autos at 2 pm est.

The buyers are starting to step aside and let the markets find a settling point I would be careful trying to short sell here it looks like we could make a push up to the Spx 1030 this Am.

My plan today is to Buy the SPY 101.75 Dip at the opening low Spx 1010 and exit about Spx 1027- 30 ...Spy 102.75

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10:00 am est.... If you went long at the open this is the place to go for the exit Spy 102.80