Pre Market TAO Wednesday 7-1-09

ES Futures moved back up into the support / resistance zone that started in May ......the Jobs report was worse than expected and there is a parade of reports this AM......10am ism /oil inventories/ construction spending / pending home sales and at 2PM auto sales........with the beginning of a new month and quarter compounded with a Holiday schedule it is difficult to determine how the next two days will go.....the market is resilient to decline and dosen't act like it wants to go down......there is a bit of confusion coupled with weak volumes.......I am inclined to go to cash and wait till Monday........I do expect Spy to gap up and sell off down to yesterday lows ...
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9:58 et AM....a lot of front running into the reports release ......there must be a bucch of confidence the news will be gooder than bad.-
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of all the years I have followed the markets, I still find it near impossible to Quantify Bad news and some how construe it to be good.......there is not one single good thing about the news releases this AM and a .01% increase in pending home sales is B.S.! .........that is not even a usable number when you dont know how many of those possible sales will ever turn into a completed mortgage contract..-

Best Quote of the day!

“Less-worse isn’t the same as better,” said Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of FusionIQ, a research firm. “We want to see ‘good.’ In order to grow profits, in order for earnings to increase, in order for corporate America to start hiring and spending, we need to see greener shoots. So far that hasn’t really happened.”

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10:45 et am... price is working its way above the 200 day sma.....and this is a significant move and this attempt to push above this level and hold will most likely ignore any news event today...the market just has to go there. But if the bulls can't hold this price level then price will drop sharply.
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11:30 et am..... There is not enough volume to sustain this rally and only half the sectors are participating.....energy / financial / industrial are all remaining in yesterday range ...the big mover is the staples .......protection play.... I smell Bull trap up here....
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2: 10 et pm....Spy is continuing to sell off .....and the Xle / xlf / xlk have moved down and remain in yesterday range....but not seeing real sell commitment in nyse tick or relative volume .
$xii institutional index has touched the head and shoulders upper neck line and moving to lower neck line in fact it looks like all sectors are rolling to the down side but I expect to find support/ resistance at the opening gap....
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3:15 et pm.....well it maybe a sign of things to come when Cheerios and Hambuger Helper lifts the market and holds it in a bullish bias all day long.........and what is with the 50 cent interday ES futures gap down?...on the 60 min chart............ Spy has been slowly bleeding off all afternoon and has found support at the 38% and 50% fib .... the tick looks to be ramping up for the end of day run..
i was short yesterday at close and have not gotten an opportunity to close profitably .....i dont like to add to losing trades so i didnt add to my short at 9300 .....i only add to a trade once it starts to go positive........so it looks like i will be forced to carry trade over nite .....why dose it allways feel like walking into a dark ally? well you never know what the Asians or the Europeans will do over night......but think there will be a sell off in the AM session ....i know I wouldn't want to be long over the week end......
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In to the close the daily Spy looks like a grave stone Doji .....very bearish for tomorrow