Pre Market TAO Friday 7-10-09

ES Futures overnight traded down 879 to 870 Morties W4 Bottom
US Dollar is up
10 yr Treasury / up
gold / crude/ nat gas / down
Asia / Euro stk /down

Spy will open large gap down to 87.75 ish

my plan is to trade the gap low and go long in the first 15 min ....if this don't work out, we can blame Mortie...heee heee..... the target will be m3 8850 -8875 area... above the pivot 8810.
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9:55 et am ....wow ...that was a fast gap recovery! I couldn't get on the Bus at the open but it looks like it is gona come back and get me ... got a long entry at 8790
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10:10 et am .... That Mich sentiment report was a sour note but what would we expect from Mich . Tick went bearish but price is holding so far...

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10 :16 am ....looks like teck xlk and xly are taking the lead this am but there is a split in the major mkts Naz is lead on the way up Dow and SP are lagging
Energy and financial's haven't moved up to fill gap yet.
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10:30 am et ..........a consolidation with a dec volume is a correction ....looks like a bull flag is forming on the 5 min spy
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10:40 et am I am not happy with what i am seeing in xle and xlf and the other sectors are starting to soften up as well.... the tick has been all over the map... and ES is bang'n it's head on yesterday's 879 resistance zone..... we could be in for another range day .
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11:20 et am ... I really think the market will rebound a bit once Europe is closed down .... but this don't look good for a + pivot move ...just broke and closed below gap low and sitting on m1...all sectors are weak and selling into yesterday low range....
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11:33 et am..... ES just tested it's overnight low 870 and spy is reversing maybe the sun will come out now. Looks like the ABC wave off of yesterday high is complete ...... lets hope this is not a 3rd wave impulse but it could be , cause it sure dosen't look corrective to me.. the next 30 min's will tell the truth.
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12:00et pm.....starting to see a pos divergence build in xle and xlf and xlk ....
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1:00 et pm...... Xle and Xlf are back up testing gap resistance and so far wave 1 is looking good with a interday trend break to the up side.
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1:30 et pm spy is testing yesterday 8805 support it needs to break thru here for any more up side ...... past support zones become future resistance .. for the past 90 min's the tick shows many more buyers than sellers a bullish bias.
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1:45 et pm ...all sectors just had a broad base up pulse . this may be a good sign...
whenever there is a break in a past support line the first thing that happens is a wave of bulls who got trapped will sell ( the get me out bunch) the tell is the strength of the pulse down ... this one was weak so the market maybe running out of sellers here. This is a very thin market today and any thing could happen into the close .... I want to be out by 3pm et...
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2:00 spy just broke and is testing yesterday range low support and is above the vwap. If it holds we could get more upside..
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2:55 et pm ..... big hitters step'n up to the plate here with some +1000 ticks..... let's see if there is any follow through...
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3:15 et pm Getting good pos ticks but price is not responding here so I am not gona stick around and watch the last hour ....closing out my long here at a break even ..... spy 8790.....we are under the vwap so the risk is to the down side from here on to the close.