Pre Market TAO Thur 7-16-09

We are in position to test the upper portion of the H&S pattern today ...if it fails they fail big.
if it breaks to the up side we are in for a very nice ride to the up side. the Spy had a 6% gain in the past 3 days. usually there will be a correction that follows.

ES futures traded overnight in a 932 -921 range and are in lower range
the markets are mixed this am

jobs claims are better than expected / tic flows were off a bit / Philly fed reports 30 min after open.

crude / gold /nat gas ...flat

Us Dollar is down.

Asian / Euro markets up

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10:55 et am ...the market looks like it has settled into a trade range day .
no strong tick and all the sectors are in top of or just above yesterday range oscillating down to range top and spy pivot 9282...relative vol is about average of past 2 days
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After a parabolic straight up move one would think the market is running on fumes ...the tape (news) is mixed but bearish so I am expecting a failure at this price level.
this entire 3 days feels like a Brute Force push buy a few big houses..
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11:35 et am....allt he sectors are starting to show signs of weakening and the tick is slowly drifting to the down side but no heavy neg hits...spy is headed back down to the pivot but the green break lights are coming on again. we bounce back up ..the last bounce up put in a lower high but i would have liked to see a lower low this time.
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12:30 et pm .....Very stubborn market today.....it is holding up very well considering all the bearish news bias......they just released the commercial bond news and that is falling on it's face as well ...... no market for commercial bonds...that's not good at all!
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1:00 et pm...Relative to last week , spy relative volume is not there from tues it is down 5m on the hr.
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2:00et pm ...the big boys just piled in an pushed spy to the day top.....and gaped 30 min chart up with big surge in tick and volume ....looks like my short is in trouble..... will wait for this candle to close could be a false break....interday gaps are usually exhaustion moves .....we wait 30 mins
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I use to short these types of gaps and do very well but this market dose not behave like a normal healthy market.....so i really cant say where we go from here ....it's hard to get a grip on this new normal....volume continues to surge and the tick is stuck in the + 1000 zone ...... looks like we call this trade a failure
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I am probably like most of the market traders today watching in a some amazement this market could rally this much in 4 days straight up on low volume in the middle of summer and at the beginning of earnings ...... but we trade what we get and to day is no exception. Right now this a critical point for the markets it must push up through and above the head to really take off or it will be facing a big down turn....