Market Tao Fri 7-24-09

ES Futures overnight did about what I expected and traded down toward the 950 to the Triangle Retracement ... It still has more to go to get there.

Spy Opened down and is trying to find balance and is now trending back down toward triangle support as well .


Nasdaq is selling off this am and is at the 10 day support trend line .


The XL'S are mixed

NYSE Tick is showing some selling pressure with - 1200 hits

With the addition of more Spy Put positions at yesterday high it looks like things are doing as expected.
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12:20 et pm..... Spy has reached what looks like the top of the Intraday Bear Flag at 9750
which has been building on decreasing volume and neutral to bearish NYSE Tick and has touched the 62% Fibonacci Retracement. I expect this next down leg will end around 9600 and I will be looking for the exit sign.
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1:05 et pm... Spy is breaking down slowly but the selling pressure has been light but steady.
Adding more Puts to the fire SPY 9740...
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Close .... This Market is amazing! The volume was dropping all day. The NYSE Tick was Bearish all day with no big buy ticks ...None ....Not One .....Nada! The tape was bearish from the get go
and we didn't even get a decent retracement started compared to the huge rocket propelled ride we have had....The Market continues to rise!

I Think the Day belongs to Billy- Bob Late to the Party Bulls (Amateurs) and the I-Bots.

The Biggest Problem I have with this latest rally 11 Days Parabolic, is if it goes up any straighter the charts will do a backwards Loop-D-Loop ..

All week long there was a plethora of huge gross revenue declines with very low expectations of any profits going into earning season. Every showcase company that is regularly touted before the public Beat The Street By a Penny or Two and the talking heads gasped in astonishment. The Government Reports are not much more reliable either. How is it, they all seem to have a feeling of being Fudged just enough to make them positive by .001%

Excuse me if I don't feel elated. I can't stand the oversell on the news shows try to feed us. This is all a little to orchestrated to me. I'm not a Perma Bear or Bull . I trade the market based on a blend of technical and fundamental analysis. As of lately, I really don't feel like we are getting a truthful picture of the nature of the economy or the corporate balance sheet.

OH ya... while I'm ranting and probably repeating myself here, the earnings reports continue to try and convince everyone things are getting better! Well you can't grow an economy on IBM government contracts , Obama jobs, Apple i-Phones and apps made in Asia, declining top line company revenues , depleting inventories, cutting jobs, raising taxes, printing currency to buy down debt or mandating everyone have health care.........AND! 550,000 job losses every month or week or what eaveeer. It doesn't matter what the number is, it's ...aheem... Less Bad......So that's Good?

Has any one caught on here? The only sector which hasn't participated in this huge surge, relatively speaking, are the Banks. I have two questions to ask here. Is the lack of interest based on the overall public sentiment or is it the banks (cough...GS, JPM, BAC) who have pushed this market around know something and have conveniently excluded themselves? They're definitely not buying each other, big tell, and they must report self purchase. These humongous pockets full of government money operations are the BUlls who push the market up and are or become the Bears when they think its time for the market to go down. This kind of duplicity is only eclipsed by the way they expanded and subsequently exploded the mortgage bubble. If your the one calling all the big moves it is easy to place oneself on the right side of the trade.

Did anyone notice that the USA was the largest consumer of China's products? So how is China going to save our economy? It's The copper play that will save us . But our Alaska And Arizona Mines have scaled back 50% ish . How about the teck play? That will for sure do it. We don't make the stuff. We buy it from them. Oh, then it has to be the Oil and energy play right? How dose oil pumped out othe ground in Brazil and shipped to china help the USA?
Well that's my long term view and really doesn't effect my day to day take on the market. Only the tape can guide us there...........Enuf pontification.

I made a nice profit exiting My Puts at 9685....
And I Am Short again Spy Puts going in to the weekend....... Average price 9790