Pre Market TAO Tuesday 6-16-09

Trading after a down day?......price will usually bounce up the following day then resume the downward move or trend sideways.....but today may be different.....we have such great news .....but wait! is good news, good or bad today?.....I like to treat this like giving a kid a big candy bar. He'll probably burn of the sugar high by noon....any way.....spy really didn't break down below the 10 day range yesterday so we very well could return to weekly range high. yesterday was a low volume sell off . which leads me to think it was profit taking and not dumping....we have oil up/gold up/dollar is making up it's mind but down for now/ pivot is at Spy 9306....../ overnight es futures printed a 928.80 high / spy should get a small gap up above pivot....we will watch volume and tick very closely first 30 min ...for now i will stay with plan posted last night . and sell in the 93.50 ish area ...watch how price responds to trend line there.

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11:00 et am .......Dollar is weak and below yesterday range...xle is moving in high side of range and xlk is moving to top of range / tick is building a bullish bias in last hour but no big buys....
i dont expect price to hit any hard resistance till 12:30 et...we noodle along till then
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11:34 spy is breaking interday trend to down side next 5 min candle is a short....
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12:06 et pm.....ok this looks a good plact to put a toe in the water.....entered 2 option contracts
July Put 100 strike price ....82% Delta at spy price 92.75...... That is equilivent to 162 shares .....

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12:40 et pm....spy just broke 9242 support and gaining momentum ....good volume spike...and -1200 tick
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12:47 et pm ....all Xl's are back into the May range except XLK but it looks to be headed there as well....and the SPY ..ES futures just broke down through 920 this could mean a new low of 880 on the ES if we close below 920...
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1:00 et pm,,,, we made our 50 cents now we move stop down to 92.25
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1:20 et pm Xlk teck is the only thread holding this market at this level ......if it breaks ....it will be ugly......
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1:30 et pm......moving stop down to spy 92.01
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1:40 et pm ....selling pressure is starting to dry up for now ...so i covered my puts at 9192 .....for an 82 cent day...... so far.......
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2:15 et pm......looks like the bulls are trying to make s stand at spy 9170 ....they just put in a 5 min hammer and the tick is moving toward pos territory and price just broke the 5 min down trend.....price could test the 9242 and the pivot at 9306....
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4:00 et pm.......why not play the counter trend ?.......I find the counter trends on a 5 min day trade chart are too slippery, meander to much and most times short lived for most options trades. Most times you only break even or just lose money.......so on days like this , i would prefer to wait for the top of the counter to make my move .....they are easer to track and less risk ....as well as the price action with the trend is always smother and much more deliberat in direction.