Pre Market TAO Thursday 6-18-09

The TAO is neutral this AM.......The Jobs report was as expected so that is already priced into the market.....so even though 605 thousand jobs were lost .....which is very bad......the market will think this is good because it is not worse bad.....the asian, euro stocks are down and the ES futures remained in a tight range overnight......we have Geitner yapping this AM and the Phillie Fed report at 10 am......Spy looks to open flat....so we watch the tick and volume ....the plan i posted last night shows 3 possable paths ...i am inclined to think spy will open flat and rally out of channel ,, test it, then work its way to the high blue path.... at 9300......but we do what the market tells us to do....
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9:40 et am....xli is weak and xlk is following down to bottom of yesterday range...tick is bearish...xle is falling as well...spy is at the 9157 pivot ......

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10:01 spy just broke upper channel...we wait for bounce and buy.....9180ish
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10:17 et am.....spy is above yesterdays range and tick is pos +1000 then +800 IF PRICE REMAINS HERE WE HAVE A TREND TO UP SIDE.... a good entry here is 92.31
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10:30 et am....92.80 to 93.25 is exit zone.......when price get up there use a tight stop because i expect price to reverse quickly..92.99 is my goal here.

10:38 this is a continuation flag at 92.32 ..the next impulse wave should take price to my goal

10:47 you can tell this flag is a retracement of this morning leg the fib is at 38% and the volume is dropping and the tick is not less than -500 to -700

10:55 i added 2 contracts to my position at 92.05
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11:15 et am the NASDAQ has been weak all AM if she dosent get above the open and pivot we could get pulled back in to yesterday range for the remainder of the day......so keeps your dukes up...
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11:30 tme market is struggling to move higher ....the naz is the laggard ......
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Timmie has been talking all AM ....don't think we are going to have much life till he stops yapp'n
spy has bumped the 92.34 three times ...we need to break up here or we are gona be stuck in this range .....naz is still weak but making another run to the pivot ....
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12:25...spy range is getting narrower and we keep getting higher lows on each bounce from 9234.. this represents behavior of an ascending triangle.... we are reaching a break point .....
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12:36 et pm....just not having any big boys step up to buy ...we need some volume and strong ticks to push up out of this triangle....
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12:47...i am moving my stop to 92.16......if we dont break up on this push spy is gona get tired..
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12:30 Ahhha SWeet .....break up....naz too! ....
the next hurtle is 9250....the shorts are probably hiding just above that.....there is still alot of supply uphere for the sellers.....so this my be a real slog to the goal line....
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1:00 et pm ...looks like financials are ready to pop to the up side ...we need a little rocket fuel push....
blast off!
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1:10...move stop up to 9250
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retest of 9250 area ......
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1:39 et pm lower high and lower low......is my signal to bail out if we dont make it above 9260
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1:45......neg divergence is begining to build in the major sectors ......market look to be heading back to the mean ie:the pivot point 9157.......-
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this last push is on lower volume with a neg _800 tick ...it is all starting to smell of a false break out...with a small double top.......
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205 et pm market is falling back n to yesterday range...have exited long at 9250 and now short at 9235
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all the XL's are starting to show weaknes and price rejection from their range highs....tick is going bearish as well ...this last spike up on spy is on low volume....all suggesting more down side
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2:49 et pm ...spy back up to test the 9250.....but that is still a lower high.......but I am starting to get tired of these head fakes and hood winks......this type of market is hard to trade ..... it all acts like it wants to roll to the down side but can't.....eeeeeuuuh!
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but i must say I feel more comfortable short here than long.......we are just below the S&P500 es futures 920 ......which is a key support and resistance area....
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the US dollar has been flat all AM and got a nice boost in the last 60 min's ...that would account for the drop in the market......Dollar looks like it building a bull flag for another run higher ......which is good for my short spy pos....
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3:20 et pm we are entering the twilight zone.....the last 30 min's .......so get your 50 cent piece out and give it a flip.......are the crazies gona show up or stay away?

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looks like the Bulls are gona pull the pull out the Big Cannons to keep the close above S&p 920 ?
or are they getting short of powder ...they have been doing some heavy lifting today.....