Pre Market TAO Monday 6-29-09

There are no strong themes this AM.....ES futures range overnight 909 - 917 ....oil / gold / are Flat.......US dollar is up a bit with bullish tail wind from china......there are more treasury auctions today at noon.....no major reports due ......

Spy is trading in a range of May and June.......the markets appear to be losing momentum and this last 2-3 day bounce was weak ......volume has been low with this last small rally suggesting more down side......nyse advance - decline is turning down as well .....of the three major markets Naz , Dow, S&P ....tha Naz is leading to the upside and Dow is following to the low side with S&P in the middle..........compared to the corrective wave we had in past two weeks, where all three markets where moving down together, this looks like a divergence where the Dow is reluctant to move much higher and could hold the others in the range of the past two months......all the XL's are pretty much in a non trend mode as well ........

With Fridays narrow range price action , we could see some wide range moves today befor the markets settle in to a direction..........In my opinion , which is my best guess , i feel more comfortable being short of the market rather than long......but the market dosen't care what i think....so we will watch and trade what we get......
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10 et am.....Starting out with a bearish bias......teck and fin tried to rally but have now dropped backin to last week range.....no strong sellers though
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11:00 et am with an upward break in resistance and a strong tick it looks to be a up trend day...we will see how the test of resistance/ support goes...
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2:00 et pm this rally looks to be out of steam. xls are topping out and are rolling at the top of last week range.......spy has been in a narrow range channel for 2 hrs and a test of support at 9225 is needed to continue this sustained rise.. .........the market seams to be following the oil trade and the dollar very closely..........it even got a pop on the Madoff sentence......go figure that...... the Institutional Index is approaching the end of a 5 wave push exhaustion gap and is rolling over as well.......
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The toughest thing as a trader to do is stay focused on the opportunities and exploit the strengths and the weakness of the daily market and not let the longer term market conditions bias the day to day and hour to hour actions the trader takes...... yes the economy is not healthy and the government is intervening in every aspect of the financial world .......but we still have up days and down days.....the job of the day trader is to take advantage of the short term of the 5 min/ 15 min / 30 min / and 60 min time frames ....so even in the big skeem of things, yes the markets are more weighted to a long term Bearish Bias....... But remember, there are many many trades to take in side the 5 min and 15 min chart........ bullish and bearish....... That is were the Day Trader Lives...... So be carefull with your point of view and dont let the news and market reports throw you off track......... the question you need to ask your self every time you take a trade decision is " Which way will the market move in the next 30 min?... and how far will it go 30 min's after that"
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3:30 t pm.... there are steady aggressive buyers of these shallow dips any of those who are long here would be a great place to close 9276........
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bear market rally's die on low volume.

The Spy just had to tag the 200 dma today .....so we wait to see if the bulls have it in them to push it higher.......