Pre Market TAO Friday 6-19-09

There are no big economic reports due today.....the key event affecting market action is options expiration and rollover.....this can get a little jumpy ..... gold is up...oil up ...US Dollar a little down..ES futures over night is in mini rally mode up to 920 resistance ( really looks like a big bear flag to me....) but spy will gap up at the open, completing the original plan i started with until i got head faked and falsely broken ..... I held my short over night so i am gona get some heat at the open but it shouldn't last long.....will add on to short at top of gap 93.03 to 93.25 for the next ride down....target of 90.00 .........

Starting Monday.... The window dressing will start up for the end of the Quarter and mutual funds will start buying any thing that is up .....and sell any thing that is down...the fundamentals will be largely ignored .. in fact we should see some interesting analysis upgrades to help it all along......it will be all about printing a good looking book for the qtr report......but on first week of July , Watchout.....they will be throwing those buys out the window.... as overbought.

my plan is to short the ultra triple short ETF's up to the end of the month....
Faz / Bgz /Typ /Ery
then go long the first week of July......
caution!... these etf's are day trade products, they really don't work well with a long term buy and hold stratigy.. and be carefull they're fast movers both ways....

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9:40 et am xlf and xlv jumped out first .... spy small gap up on open ....tick a bit bullish ....dia naz rut all above pivot....us dollar opened down but still above upward slop trend line.........
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9:55 added to short 9260/ 2 contracts ......at 92 delta....101 july put ....eq value 370 shares
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10:00 so far all Xl's have remained within yesterday range...other than health care which is still above range.....tick is a bit bullish but turning neutral.....ES futures is slugging it out at 922 ..dollar is moving up a bit
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10:30et am....put in a bear flag and the target to exit will be 91.92....
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1041 et am...this bear flag in at the last stand of 62% retrace ....this market feels like yesterday ...it has follow through issues....revised target is 92.00 exit..
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1052 .......teck is poke'n its head up into wed's range but on low volume.... tick just popped a +800....spy is back at top of range.....the dollar is noodle'n sideways......this is the markets 3rd run at the spy92.65.......and the 6th runn up into this zone......it is either going to break up or fail ......i think a reversal is in the cards....
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12:25 et mp....sell off is in full swing here spy is at pivot if it falls below target is 9150 then 9138 ...the volume and tick is not really strong enough to sustain further move down ....for now, only light pressure...but we may bleed off the rest of the day...
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12:48.................covered 2 contracts with 60 point gain....could be more down to go.....
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1:01 pm et ....this could be a turn point ...i covered my other 2 contracts ...60 points +
that is 110 points total......lets see what the afternoon session has for us....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------spy is sitting on the upward sloping trend channel that starts from wed's low.... it's bounce or break time......i dont the bulls are going to give up that easy ...i say we bounce ....to 9220 or 9250
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1:30 et pm....put on a long at 9205 target 9250 ....stop 9180
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2:oopm .....ok...we had a interday down trend line break to the up side ..with a test ( that's where i jumped in ) now we have a retest of the confluence of the up and down trends......this should go higher now.....we need a higher high on this push with some + volume and + ticks...or im callin it a bear flag!

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ok..ok..ok it's a bear flag ...i got stopped out ....
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2:30 price spy came back up to 9180 so im short here to the close 2 contracts...target 9130
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3:30...the crazies are back....this is where for me chart analysis and logical pattern price moves fall of the edge of the table.....it is unbelievable the amount of money it takes to move the whole market this much this fast against the prevailing trend

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What a stinker of a week. It was just a lot of hard work........lost Monday......won Tuesday ... won wed ...squeaker Thurs.....won some today ..got stopped out, a loss ..... jumped back in.....and had to carry over a near break even to Monday....so i guess this week was kinda of just ok...small win overall ..so now we start the new week with a little more than we had last week......that fulfills NeboXian's number One Rule.......Don't lose the MONEY....