Pre Market TAO Tuesdat 6-23-09

I expect a bounce this AM after a big down day up to ES 898 then a continuation of down for the rest of day.....Fomc is tomorrow

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10:00et am....spy is moving up to pivot 9082 if buying keeps up we could be at 9055.....realestate is up from May so that could help ...Xl's are holding yesterday range but Teck is a little weak.....my long trade from yesterday is still down.....yesterday sold off more than i thought it would.....price made a wave 5 extention down in the last few min's so i am expecting an ABC retracement this AM to the up side to 9025 -9050.....
tick is mixed... price is rotating around Vwap....(volume weighted moving average)
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10:30 et am ...markets are moving consistent with range trade so far ....8988 to 8910
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10;44 et pm...Industrials, materials, teck and energy are all showing weakness this AM...the Dow is leading the market around by it's nose.....but the low end of range is on declining volume....but a bearish tick bias is gaining strength...
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How in the world dose one evaluate the Statement "Weaker than expected but better than"..?
is that good is good? or good is bad? or is bad good ? or bad is bad?..........I think when they don't really want to tell you the truth, they feed the market with this kind of junk....
how can the housing market be less bad when the credit cost is rising? most of these sales are related to forclosure....that is not Retail Sales.... that only drives the price of homes down.....
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11;12 et am..... the bears are slowly grinding the market down ......the xlf is starting to follow as well .... not sure i get the weakness in teck today though....
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11:30 et am.....sectors are returning to yesterday range.. lets 'see if it holds up
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12:07 et pm ....spy ..trend line break on interday chart this appears to be the first leg up after a 5 wave down move..the first target is the daily pivot 8975 to8990
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2:20 et pm.....spy is at top of range 8970 ...if this breaks up the resistance layers are 9890...9000....9025 and 9050......tick is strong +1000 with increasing volume this looks like a possible 5 wave up formstion developing ...if this is wave 3 starting price should reach 9050...
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if you look at a spy 10 min chart there is a small inverted head and shoulders completion ...spy is at the right shoulder neck line ...if this breaks up the target will be + 85 points........ to 9075
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3:20 et pm spy is building an ascending triangle at the end of this 5 wave pattern looks to be a series of 3 wave ABC 's ......it is hard at this time to tell if this will be a continuation or a reversal ..... but the market hasn't been doing much that makes scene except in hind sight.........corrective patterns are difficult to track while they develop any way ......most times you can't tell what they are until it's all over............best you can do most times, is eliminate what it's not doing..... but todays action is acting more like a reversal back to the up side rather than a continuation or correction for more down side...... This is a key reasion i dont like to trade corrective patterns ...but the market gods enjoy squeezing those who are on the wrong side of the trade down to the very last drop of blood........that is another reason to never never never add to a loseing trade.... so i don't.........
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close......the market tick closed with a bullish bias..... spy with a series of modestly higher highs and higher lows from the inter day low I am optimistic we will see a green day wed's......so am holding again my long position .....market fudies where firming up ......don't think fed is going to make any changes at there FOMC anouncement so we sit tight.......i really dont like to hold a position more than two days particularly due to time loss factor in options......it's like pouring oil in to a funnel.....