Well Monday was weaker than Friday. yet, yesterday was an up day......today is the last day of the quarter and the fund managers have to show they tried to participate in this last rally so I kinda expect one last final squeaker pop today.......then maybe not......the Es futures have visited 925 overnight and are back down to 922.......euro stks are down and asia was flat....it looks like Spy will open flat ...there are home price index at 9 et and Chicago Pmi at 9:45 and consumer confidence at 10 et.........so i don't expect mush movement till after 10 am et.....Take a look at the charts I posted this AM...... the narrower range days present less day trading opportunities and quiker reversals. this actually can increase risk because it reduces the risk reward ratios and I have noticed the need to hold trades overnight more often. Which as a Day trader, I dont like to do....the new normal is that the markets are running 24 hrs and anything that happens in ASia or Europe will follow through to the open in the US markets ...Hence , as a Day Trader, more risk to carry overnight....
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10:22 et am....looks like there is a broad market sell off beginning .....all sectors are falling and nyse tick is strong neg -1000 .......all markets are below pivot and moving to s1 ......if spy pulls up to 9220 to 9240 anf fails we will be sellers below 9200
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1040 et am.....sectors xl's are falling into last week range ....looks to be a down trend day...tick is still moving strongly bearish
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1240 et pm......good leg down .....markets are well under pivot and at multiday support resistance area.........spy looks to move sideways in to close ....a down trend day will typically close at the day low area... i will sell any rally from here...
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2:55 et pm.....the end of day run up, if it comes , will be a good short entry if im willing to hold to close or overnight.....9195 to 9215 sell zone
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Market close.........I decided to hold my short position over night the ES futures are trading under 915 and the US Dollar is gaining strength .....I expect more selling over the next two days....in addition the SPY closed with an engulfing red candle.. on the center bollinger band daily chart ....also the institutional Index tested the top of the upper head neck line and failed back down below key support/ resistance zone.......looks bearish all around ........the 3rd quarter starts and trading will most likely be sideways range to down
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Pre Market TAO Tuesday 6-30-09
ProphetCharts: $VIX
When volitility and volume are comming out of the market the trading ranges will become narrower on a daily average.....notice the increase of narrow range and shorter candles in June vs March in the Spy chart below
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ProphetCharts: SPY
As the volume and volitility come out ov the market , the range high and low of the daily candles are getting shorter.....this makes day trading harder because the prices are reversing sooner than expected or not following through to those expected price targets
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Monday, June 29, 2009
Pre Market TAO Monday 6-29-09
There are no strong themes this AM.....ES futures range overnight 909 - 917 ....oil / gold / are Flat.......US dollar is up a bit with bullish tail wind from china......there are more treasury auctions today at noon.....no major reports due ......
Spy is trading in a range of May and June.......the markets appear to be losing momentum and this last 2-3 day bounce was weak ......volume has been low with this last small rally suggesting more down side......nyse advance - decline is turning down as well .....of the three major markets Naz , Dow, S&P ....tha Naz is leading to the upside and Dow is following to the low side with S&P in the middle..........compared to the corrective wave we had in past two weeks, where all three markets where moving down together, this looks like a divergence where the Dow is reluctant to move much higher and could hold the others in the range of the past two months......all the XL's are pretty much in a non trend mode as well ........
With Fridays narrow range price action , we could see some wide range moves today befor the markets settle in to a direction..........In my opinion , which is my best guess , i feel more comfortable being short of the market rather than long......but the market dosen't care what i think....so we will watch and trade what we get......
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10 et am.....Starting out with a bearish bias......teck and fin tried to rally but have now dropped backin to last week range.....no strong sellers though
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11:00 et am with an upward break in resistance and a strong tick it looks to be a up trend day...we will see how the test of resistance/ support goes...
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2:00 et pm this rally looks to be out of steam. xls are topping out and are rolling at the top of last week range.......spy has been in a narrow range channel for 2 hrs and a test of support at 9225 is needed to continue this sustained rise.. .........the market seams to be following the oil trade and the dollar very closely..........it even got a pop on the Madoff sentence......go figure that...... the Institutional Index is approaching the end of a 5 wave push exhaustion gap and is rolling over as well.......
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The toughest thing as a trader to do is stay focused on the opportunities and exploit the strengths and the weakness of the daily market and not let the longer term market conditions bias the day to day and hour to hour actions the trader takes...... yes the economy is not healthy and the government is intervening in every aspect of the financial world .......but we still have up days and down days.....the job of the day trader is to take advantage of the short term of the 5 min/ 15 min / 30 min / and 60 min time frames ....so even in the big skeem of things, yes the markets are more weighted to a long term Bearish Bias....... But remember, there are many many trades to take in side the 5 min and 15 min chart........ bullish and bearish....... That is were the Day Trader Lives...... So be carefull with your point of view and dont let the news and market reports throw you off track......... the question you need to ask your self every time you take a trade decision is " Which way will the market move in the next 30 min?... and how far will it go 30 min's after that"
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3:30 t pm.... there are steady aggressive buyers of these shallow dips any of those who are long here would be a great place to close 9276........
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bear market rally's die on low volume.
The Spy just had to tag the 200 dma today .....so we wait to see if the bulls have it in them to push it higher.......
Friday, June 26, 2009
ProphetCharts: $XII
Is the market building a Head and Shoulder pattern?......we will see next week
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Market TAO Friday 6-26-09
Today looks to be a range day.....Es futures are bouncing off the 917 resistance ....Xl's are within yesterday range ....tick is neutral to slightly bullish but mixed........US Dollar gapped down at open but is gaining strength.....volume is dropping off ......
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2;45 et pm .......it's a sleeper today......lowest volume we have seen since Christmas....geees!....this narrow range will most likely explode into volatility Monday ....cant tell which way...... It will kinda be like an unattended fire hose.......until noon at least....
ProphetCharts: $SPX
thiis is my plan friday 6-26-09.......
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
ProphetCharts: $XII
This is a 30 day 30 min chart of the Institional Index.....is a t the 50% retracement level......and up against this resistance /support area and is at top of the May range.......if this breaks up then market is for a big up side rally......if it fails here, then the May lows are possible...
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Pre Market Tao Thuraday 6-25-09
With the jobs report worse than expected and Gdp down -5.5.....looks like we sell any rally close to the upper channel spx 900- 987.....
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9:47 etam.....this looks like a good plase to start making a position 9010 is first entry 2 contracts july 98 put... I am prepared to add more to position if price tags upper spx channel at 905.......spy is below pivot 9023 and testing yesterday close .....tick is a little bulish with a +800 ....volume is increasing
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10:00 e am spx just touched top of channel ..907 .......i added on two more contracts.... this a truth or die move for the market today ...the bulls either pull a rabbit out of their hat or this market is going down.... i have my stop set above yesterday high
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10:30 et am....looks like the safety play is going in to place....xly....xlp....vlv and vlk are the leaders this AM........that smell like rotation to me..... it looks like this spike is on decreasing volume.......treasuries are riseing and US Dollar looks to be in a small pullback after a gap up at open....... i say the bulls and bears are going to be in a slug fest most of the day....ie: range trade....high spy 9120 to low 8975
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11:11 am et.....the US Dollar has rallied up to a multiday resistance level in side an ascending triangle.......looks like it could rock back and forth for a few more days maby in to next week befor it breaks away to the up side........
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11:30 am et .....clearly the market is trying to turn to the up side........price is approaching the 62% retracement..........my stop is just above here.....
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11:40 am et........looks like a n up ward sloping channel is beginning the top is spy 9145.....im going to sit this spike out ...and expect price to return to the mean........these bad news is good news days make me nuts..........this still looks like a rotation to safety action today.......
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12:06 Wow.....what a hood wink! ......spy is at the top of the monday gap resistance level ....this will usally put the Breaks on this momentum...I'm thinking we should see a rollover.......back toward the pivot.....that was the 78% retracement we are now in the danger zone for a reversal conformation to the up side........
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surprise rally's are a difficult thing to understand but some times the market has to test a level so it will go there .....and when it makes a move like that reminds me of my dog trapping a rat in the corner......the rat puts up a hell of a fight but the dog, even if he gets all bloodied up ,still HAS to kill the rat .... sometimes there is no good explanation....it's just the nature of things...
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1:39 et pm......we have just experienced a 5 wave push today now we should see a correction ....
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in to the close ......the market expended a lot of energy to push up to the high.......not sure how it will play out in the am....ES futures could not hold that key 915 ....but market is really trying to stage a come back......all the XL's have moved up to yesterday range and tick has been very bullish.....it's very hard to be short on days like to day.......but i still feel like this is a safety rotation.....with low volume rally.......it s still all about the US Dollar.....held my short over to am session .....expect a test of todays channel .....and in my experience these suprise rallys suggest buying in absence of fundamental reasons......ie fear to miss out on the next big move up....or it could be buying window dressing in mutual funds is starting a little early........
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
Game plan for Thursday ....sell any rally up into channel top zone....if it breaks above channel wait till it reenters .......keep an eye on the US Dollar it could get it's Mojo back and find a rally higher..if that happens it will be bad for stocks and commodities...
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ProphetCharts: SPY
SPY Divergence with lower high and first lower low...decreasing volume.......Macd decline....momentum is running out at up side
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Pre Market TAO Wednesday 6-24-09
ES futures overnight are moving up to 899.50 in anticipation of FOMC announcement today at 12:15 et.....Durable goods orders are better than expected ....New homes sales report is expected 8:00 and is up as well .....crude down...gold up $US Dollar is down...treasuries are up .....looks like Spy will Gap up at open....I plan to close out my long at the top of this gap and run 900+ then reenter short after fomc .....
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9:41 et am ...i closed out my spy long at 90.25 for a profit for the week .....the market appears to be strong but i am determined to stay with my plan unless there is new info........i expect the rest of the day to be a floater....untill after noon session ..it could reach 9040 .....
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10:25 et am......There you go ...the market will almost always push it farther than expected ...90.90
...i dont try to ride the moves all the way .....i just like to take a big bite out of the middle of the move.....spy is reaching short target high.....good low risk place to dip in at the 50% retracement....9075
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11:45 et am .......spy is rotating around the 50% and 62% fib......this may be a Bull flag building here but i don't think so......we should continue to move sideways for next few hours ...till fomc.
be prepared for an up spike just before announcement......price will most likely test the upper $SPX 910 channel
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2:08 et pm.....you can see the pressure building in the charts ........if bernackie is dovish the dollar will drop ......if he is hawkish the dollar will rally big,,,, this is all about the value of the US Dollar.... so strap in and put your Ber-Bul Helmet on... could get bumpy
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2:30 et pm....Fed statement ...milk toast.....and oat meal.........for every one this summer!
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The market will most likely not take it well over the rest of the week.....so we stay short spy...
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Bulls are really put'n up a fight at this gap level 8980....
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close .....pulled 250 points out for last 3 days ....not to bad......I have covered my short here at the close ....I'm gona let them slug it out without my money...we'll see how they did in the am...
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
This SPX chart is the Game plan for the rest of the week......notice that on each correction upward results in a clean decisive drop to the down side......i expect the next drop will go beyond the 875 target area because this would be a continuation of the third wave beginning at 926.92....I plan to exit my spy long position when the spx gets to the 905 target zone and reenter short there as well....
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ProphetCharts: AAPL
This Chart of AAPL explains the weakness in the XLK teck ETF today....the zone at 125 - 130 could be a good long buy play.
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ProphetCharts: XLU
This Utilities Etf is a bearish wedge........notice the double top at the "e" position ...this is a good short play with a stop above the 28.25 area .....target is 27.00 then 25.50 if price breaks below lower trend line... i will try to get entry on the next upward move interday....27.30ish
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ProphetCharts: XLF
Look at this chart of the Financial ETF.......identical Twins.....this could be a REdux.......I wonder how long Free money , funky accounting and a stress test an 10 year old could pass will hold these banks up? the end of the quarter is a week away... and earnings will start leaking out...This is gona be an interesting summer....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Positive Divergence is in play here ...suggests a reversal is possible or at least a key corection on this 5 min chart....expect a 38 to 50% retracement
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Pre Market TAO Tuesdat 6-23-09
I expect a bounce this AM after a big down day up to ES 898 then a continuation of down for the rest of day.....Fomc is tomorrow
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10:00et am....spy is moving up to pivot 9082 if buying keeps up we could be at 9055.....realestate is up from May so that could help ...Xl's are holding yesterday range but Teck is a little weak.....my long trade from yesterday is still down.....yesterday sold off more than i thought it would.....price made a wave 5 extention down in the last few min's so i am expecting an ABC retracement this AM to the up side to 9025 -9050.....
tick is mixed... price is rotating around Vwap....(volume weighted moving average)
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10:30 et am ...markets are moving consistent with range trade so far ....8988 to 8910
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10;44 et pm...Industrials, materials, teck and energy are all showing weakness this AM...the Dow is leading the market around by it's nose.....but the low end of range is on declining volume....but a bearish tick bias is gaining strength...
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How in the world dose one evaluate the Statement "Weaker than expected but better than"..?
is that good is good? or good is bad? or is bad good ? or bad is bad?..........I think when they don't really want to tell you the truth, they feed the market with this kind of junk....
how can the housing market be less bad when the credit cost is rising? most of these sales are related to forclosure....that is not Retail Sales.... that only drives the price of homes down.....
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11;12 et am..... the bears are slowly grinding the market down ......the xlf is starting to follow as well .... not sure i get the weakness in teck today though....
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11:30 et am.....sectors are returning to yesterday range.. lets 'see if it holds up
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12:07 et pm ....spy ..trend line break on interday chart this appears to be the first leg up after a 5 wave down move..the first target is the daily pivot 8975 to8990
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2:20 et pm.....spy is at top of range 8970 ...if this breaks up the resistance layers are 9890...9000....9025 and 9050......tick is strong +1000 with increasing volume this looks like a possible 5 wave up formstion developing ...if this is wave 3 starting price should reach 9050...
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if you look at a spy 10 min chart there is a small inverted head and shoulders completion ...spy is at the right shoulder neck line ...if this breaks up the target will be + 85 points........ to 9075
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3:20 et pm spy is building an ascending triangle at the end of this 5 wave pattern looks to be a series of 3 wave ABC 's ......it is hard at this time to tell if this will be a continuation or a reversal ..... but the market hasn't been doing much that makes scene except in hind sight.........corrective patterns are difficult to track while they develop any way ......most times you can't tell what they are until it's all over............best you can do most times, is eliminate what it's not doing..... but todays action is acting more like a reversal back to the up side rather than a continuation or correction for more down side...... This is a key reasion i dont like to trade corrective patterns ...but the market gods enjoy squeezing those who are on the wrong side of the trade down to the very last drop of blood........that is another reason to never never never add to a loseing trade.... so i don't.........
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close......the market tick closed with a bullish bias..... spy with a series of modestly higher highs and higher lows from the inter day low I am optimistic we will see a green day wed's......so am holding again my long position .....market fudies where firming up ......don't think fed is going to make any changes at there FOMC anouncement so we sit tight.......i really dont like to hold a position more than two days particularly due to time loss factor in options......it's like pouring oil in to a funnel.....
Monday, June 22, 2009
ProphetCharts: SPY
Inter Day Divergence set up......notice decling price vs the declining volume and the positive divergenve ot the MACD.....this suggest sellers are losing interest
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Pre Market TAO Monday 6-22-09
There no big event today other than the Bond auction at 11am et.....the es overnight has printed a 919 high and a 905 low ...the US Dollar is up and Eurostocks are down sharply.... gold is down as well as oil...and commodities....looks like a flat open ....all Xls closed in thursdays range ....the only xl's trading above the May range are xlk / xly / and xlu..... i expect a dip today and a rally to fridays high afted the auction
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9:55 et am....all the Xl's have fallen out of bed at open and are trading below friday low....
tick is clearly neg -1200 ....... spy is approching 9030 ,,,last weeks low....we wait for reaction to this support level ...i am expection a bounce.... i covered my short for a 100 point gain.... now am looking for a long trade back to top of range........
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11:30 et am put on a long spy 9034 .....stop 9005 ....target 9085
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12:00et pm........the market is stretched out to the down side this am selling pressure should start to let up now that European markets are closing....... should snap back toward the pivot spy 9208
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12:30 pm et......spy just broke up thru the interday down trend line lets see if it holds.....
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a good clue the market will diverge away from the prevailing trend is when all market sectors dont follow along...today the xle / xlk / xli / and xlb where all at new weekly lows but the other xl's stayed in the weekly range and did not make any new low..... this looks more like a rotation ie: money being moved from one sector to another.....which suggests we may remain in a range trading environment...-----
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When markets start to move the first question i ask is, where is the money going?
Money dosen't just POOF! and turn in to thin air....it has to go some where.......Today it looks like money is flowing to treasuries and bonds ....... safety ...... look at the TLT etf...... it is about the only thing thats up ....
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1:48 et pm....the markets look like they are all trying to turn ....we have hammer doji on all 10 min charts dow / naz/ sp.....
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2:19 et pm .......on a gap down day with a runner the price will eventually return to test or fill the gap befor continuing down....but most times the close will be at the low of the day ..so we got about 2 hours... to see. added to long at 89.70 2 contracts
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2:41 et pm looks like buyers are starting to nibble here ...tick +800
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3:00 ... I', really disappointed today with the Bulls ...they haven't even put up a fight so far......they have pretty much let the bears have their way .......
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3:30 et pm It's very hard to be a buyer of dips at the end of the day when this market down like this ...the crazy buyers usally show about now ...we will see if they show.. i would like to see a 9025 print so i can get out clean today
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close Well my peanut butter and jelly sandwich fell exactly the way it always dose no the close....face down.......so i will hold this over night and trade it out on turn around tuesday.....we should test the gap at least....
Friday, June 19, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
Looks like this bearish wedge is going to follow through next week..That's why i carried my short over the week end.....
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Pre Market TAO Friday 6-19-09
There are no big economic reports due today.....the key event affecting market action is options expiration and rollover.....this can get a little jumpy ..... gold is up...oil up ...US Dollar a little down..ES futures over night is in mini rally mode up to 920 resistance ( really looks like a big bear flag to me....) but spy will gap up at the open, completing the original plan i started with until i got head faked and falsely broken ..... I held my short over night so i am gona get some heat at the open but it shouldn't last long.....will add on to short at top of gap 93.03 to 93.25 for the next ride down....target of 90.00 .........
Starting Monday.... The window dressing will start up for the end of the Quarter and mutual funds will start buying any thing that is up .....and sell any thing that is down...the fundamentals will be largely ignored .. in fact we should see some interesting analysis upgrades to help it all along......it will be all about printing a good looking book for the qtr report......but on first week of July , Watchout.....they will be throwing those buys out the window.... as overbought.
my plan is to short the ultra triple short ETF's up to the end of the month....
Faz / Bgz /Typ /Ery
then go long the first week of July......
caution!... these etf's are day trade products, they really don't work well with a long term buy and hold stratigy.. and be carefull they're fast movers both ways....
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9:40 et am xlf and xlv jumped out first .... spy small gap up on open ....tick a bit bullish ....dia naz rut all above pivot....us dollar opened down but still above upward slop trend line.........
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9:55 added to short 9260/ 2 contracts ......at 92 delta....101 july put ....eq value 370 shares
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10:00 so far all Xl's have remained within yesterday range...other than health care which is still above range.....tick is a bit bullish but turning neutral.....ES futures is slugging it out at 922 ..dollar is moving up a bit
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10:30et am....put in a bear flag and the target to exit will be 91.92....
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1041 et am...this bear flag in at the last stand of 62% retrace ....this market feels like yesterday ...it has follow through issues....revised target is 92.00 exit..
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1052 .......teck is poke'n its head up into wed's range but on low volume.... tick just popped a +800....spy is back at top of range.....the dollar is noodle'n sideways......this is the markets 3rd run at the spy92.65.......and the 6th runn up into this zone......it is either going to break up or fail ......i think a reversal is in the cards....
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12:25 et mp....sell off is in full swing here spy is at pivot if it falls below target is 9150 then 9138 ...the volume and tick is not really strong enough to sustain further move down ....for now, only light pressure...but we may bleed off the rest of the day...
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12:48.................covered 2 contracts with 60 point gain....could be more down to go.....
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1:01 pm et ....this could be a turn point ...i covered my other 2 contracts ...60 points +
that is 110 points total......lets see what the afternoon session has for us....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------spy is sitting on the upward sloping trend channel that starts from wed's low.... it's bounce or break time......i dont the bulls are going to give up that easy ...i say we bounce ....to 9220 or 9250
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1:30 et pm....put on a long at 9205 target 9250 ....stop 9180
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2:oopm .....ok...we had a interday down trend line break to the up side ..with a test ( that's where i jumped in ) now we have a retest of the confluence of the up and down trends......this should go higher now.....we need a higher high on this push with some + volume and + ticks...or im callin it a bear flag!
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ok..ok..ok it's a bear flag ...i got stopped out ....
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2:30 price spy came back up to 9180 so im short here to the close 2 contracts...target 9130
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3:30...the crazies are back....this is where for me chart analysis and logical pattern price moves fall of the edge of the table.....it is unbelievable the amount of money it takes to move the whole market this much this fast against the prevailing trend
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What a stinker of a week. It was just a lot of hard work........lost Monday......won Tuesday ... won wed ...squeaker Thurs.....won some today ..got stopped out, a loss ..... jumped back in.....and had to carry over a near break even to Monday....so i guess this week was kinda of just ok...small win overall ..so now we start the new week with a little more than we had last week......that fulfills NeboXian's number One Rule.......Don't lose the MONEY....
Thursday, June 18, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
Make Ya Nuts ......don't it.....Serious BI-Polar condition.....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Here is a one day one min chart of today.......you can see my entry and exit points ......i re entered short at my exit point...and carried the trade over to AM session.....market is really fighting over this 9235 zone ...but it looks like the bears may win friday and monday....there just dosen"t seem to be enough firepower left in the Bulls to keep pushing this market up.....
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Pre Market TAO Thursday 6-18-09
The TAO is neutral this AM.......The Jobs report was as expected so that is already priced into the market.....so even though 605 thousand jobs were lost .....which is very bad......the market will think this is good because it is not worse bad.....the asian, euro stocks are down and the ES futures remained in a tight range overnight......we have Geitner yapping this AM and the Phillie Fed report at 10 am......Spy looks to open flat....so we watch the tick and volume ....the plan i posted last night shows 3 possable paths ...i am inclined to think spy will open flat and rally out of channel ,, test it, then work its way to the high blue path.... at 9300......but we do what the market tells us to do....
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9:40 et am....xli is weak and xlk is following down to bottom of yesterday range...tick is bearish...xle is falling as well...spy is at the 9157 pivot ......
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10:01 spy just broke upper channel...we wait for bounce and buy.....9180ish
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10:17 et am.....spy is above yesterdays range and tick is pos +1000 then +800 IF PRICE REMAINS HERE WE HAVE A TREND TO UP SIDE.... a good entry here is 92.31
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10:30 et am....92.80 to 93.25 is exit zone.......when price get up there use a tight stop because i expect price to reverse quickly..92.99 is my goal here.
10:38 this is a continuation flag at 92.32 ..the next impulse wave should take price to my goal
10:47 you can tell this flag is a retracement of this morning leg the fib is at 38% and the volume is dropping and the tick is not less than -500 to -700
10:55 i added 2 contracts to my position at 92.05
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11:15 et am the NASDAQ has been weak all AM if she dosent get above the open and pivot we could get pulled back in to yesterday range for the remainder of the day......so keeps your dukes up...
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11:30 tme market is struggling to move higher ....the naz is the laggard ......
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Timmie has been talking all AM ....don't think we are going to have much life till he stops yapp'n
spy has bumped the 92.34 three times ...we need to break up here or we are gona be stuck in this range .....naz is still weak but making another run to the pivot ....
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12:25...spy range is getting narrower and we keep getting higher lows on each bounce from 9234.. this represents behavior of an ascending triangle.... we are reaching a break point .....
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12:36 et pm....just not having any big boys step up to buy ...we need some volume and strong ticks to push up out of this triangle....
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12:47...i am moving my stop to 92.16......if we dont break up on this push spy is gona get tired..
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12:30 Ahhha SWeet .....break up....naz too! ....
the next hurtle is 9250....the shorts are probably hiding just above that.....there is still alot of supply uphere for the sellers.....so this my be a real slog to the goal line....
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1:00 et pm ...looks like financials are ready to pop to the up side ...we need a little rocket fuel push....
blast off!
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1:10...move stop up to 9250
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retest of 9250 area ......
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1:39 et pm lower high and lower low......is my signal to bail out if we dont make it above 9260
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1:45......neg divergence is begining to build in the major sectors ......market look to be heading back to the mean ie:the pivot point 9157.......-
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this last push is on lower volume with a neg _800 tick ...it is all starting to smell of a false break out...with a small double top.......
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205 et pm market is falling back n to yesterday range...have exited long at 9250 and now short at 9235
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all the XL's are starting to show weaknes and price rejection from their range highs....tick is going bearish as well ...this last spike up on spy is on low volume....all suggesting more down side
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2:49 et pm ...spy back up to test the 9250.....but that is still a lower high.......but I am starting to get tired of these head fakes and hood winks......this type of market is hard to trade ..... it all acts like it wants to roll to the down side but can't.....eeeeeuuuh!
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but i must say I feel more comfortable short here than long.......we are just below the S&P500 es futures 920 ......which is a key support and resistance area....
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the US dollar has been flat all AM and got a nice boost in the last 60 min's ...that would account for the drop in the market......Dollar looks like it building a bull flag for another run higher ......which is good for my short spy pos....
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3:20 et pm we are entering the twilight zone.....the last 30 min's .......so get your 50 cent piece out and give it a flip.......are the crazies gona show up or stay away?
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looks like the Bulls are gona pull the pull out the Big Cannons to keep the close above S&p 920 ?
or are they getting short of powder ...they have been doing some heavy lifting today.....
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
reversals with wedges most times meander sideways to upward ...they are difficult to project targets and price points...... look to left for support and resistance zones along with fib's ....some times they will retrace back to top and others will just move sideways in a low to mid range channel......
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Alternate trades for thursday 6-18-09
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Thursdays Game plan 6-18-09
I think tomarrow will be a range day 9230 high and 9080 low...but the market dosen't care what i think .....so i always have alternates....
buy 91.00 down to 90.80
stop 90.65
sell 92.15 up to 92.30
stop 92.45
alternate .. if price fails at top of orange channel sell there and follow the red path......or if price gets to "c" and reverses at top of orange channel follow the blue path...
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Pre Market TAO Wednesday 6-17-09
The overnight ES futures Action is clearly shifting the overall sentiment to the down side.....at this point i am leaning more to a seller of rallies but not totally convinced yet....the dollar is seeing some strength and oil is down as well as gold....the stronger Dollar will feed in to the bearish trend direction........the pivot is 92.04 and the spy will open gap down and below daily pivot.....so we are in a holding mode at open will see if yesterday ranges hold and watch tick and volume for first 30 min's........i will usally use the 2 day down rule and buy the open .....but we are seeing too many bearish indicators this AM....
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9:35 et am....energy , indus , finan, mat ar all starting out below yesterday range....
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10:40 ET AM ....The markets are in the bad news is Bad mode today......the Spy is lagging because of the bank sector down grades the financial' s are dragging the market down.....tick is in bearish bias .....looks lke all other sectors are beginning to follow the banks....
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12:00 et pm ....spy is moving back up to yesterday range....well see if it holds....it al so put in a mini head and shoulders...target is 9225...then 9275....will enter here at 91 75 with stop below 9150... ...spy call july @10.00 ....2 contracts with 93 delta ....eq to 183 shares....
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12:20 et pm....tick is moving to bullish bias and all markets are beginning to get positive .....just broke 2 day down trend line...with increasing pos volume.....looking ok so far...i would feel better if we see some real strong up ticks +1000...
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12:42 et pm .....I covered my long at break even ....just dont like the action...will wait for market reaction to president speak...
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1:20 et pm...I'm taking the other side of this trade ......short...9175 spy target 9125 with a stop at 9201.....option play is july put 101 strike with a 89 delta...
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1:45 et pm.....More regulation is good news? this is a crazy market ......financial's are rallying .....i should have stuck to the plan .......now bad news is good.......
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2:46 et pm ......spy has a trend break of interday rally .....volume riseing and tick -800 ....this is a short play to the close .....i think spy will remain in this 9225 to 9100 range for the next few days .and with the overall sentiment i an inclined to sell rallys ....oh ya ..im short at the trend break candle..
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3:22 pm et....the last hour of trading has been a coin toss ....for me it like making a peanut butter and jelly sandwich .... and dropping it on the floor .....the peanut butter side always lands down no matter which side of the bread i use.....but the crazie buyers have been hiding the past two days....maybe they will stay away to day too...
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3:52 et pm Wow the bulls are shooting every cannon they got to keep the close in the green
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3:59 et.pm ...closed out trade with a little squeeker of a profit...... I'm gona call today a wash....
but that is ok it is all about preserving money to fight another day...... .....the key thing to do in trading is do every thing you can to lose less than you make..... and even? ...well.. is not losing...
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
ProphetCharts: FXE
There is still lots of down side for the Euro Dollar over the Summer.. which means the US dollar will get stronger.... A strong US Dollar makes it hard for US companies to sell product over seas and makes US stock less attractive to off Shore invesrors. this could be a bad omen for Us Equities and Commodities...suggesting a major decline in stocks and commodities ...this also is supported buy the chart of the Vix i published a few days ago...the Month of July is the beginning of the 3rd quarter ....
For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net
ProphetCharts: SEPR
Here is a chart to put on your radar over next 2-3 days.
. if you are new to options ...do this on a demo trader to get a feel how options work....
a july $20 strike put is $4.50 per contract ....with a .91 Delta...
two $450 contracts or $900 and are..( equilivent value) to 182 shares of SEPR @ $2900 .....if the entry is at SEPR $16.00 the contract will cost less...a move from $16.00 down to $14.50 will net approx 150 points x 182 shares =about $250 return...the trade looks like a 4-5 day hold for next week...this option has low open interest and daily volume so it may take a few hours to exit at a limit price ......never place orders at market....they will skin you.
For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net
ProphetCharts: $SPX
See my video on Wedges.........Here is a bigger view of the past 5 days........Downward sloping wedge is bullish.......
upward sloping wedge is Bearish........the reversal projection targets with wedges are not as defined as other reversal chart patterns...so you have to take your cues from the left side of the chart and look for past support and resistance in addition to Fib's...
For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net
ProphetCharts: SPY
This is a continuation of Monday nights chart ....the plan worked almost perfect except the market tried to jump ahead of my time projection..HEE.. HEE......today spy put in a final 5th wave down with a very small 5 wave reversal diagonal triangle pattern at the end ( see my video on reversal triangles)...this is also called a Wolf wave .....so the plan for Wednesday is to buy at 91.50 ish and exit at 92.80 upto 93.60.... i will place my stop below 91.35 at 9125 this is a 25 point risk...with a 100 to 200 point reward ratio....
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ProphetCharts: $TICK
Nyse Tick .....1 min .......has turned bearish ....with - 1000 tick and no ticks above +600 ...notice the 200/ 50 /20 MA's are under the zero line .....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
5 min SPY.......smells like a rollover to me.......up against chart resistance 3 rd test.....riseing or flat price.......decreasing volume and a neg MACD divergence.......this could be it....soon...
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Pre Market TAO Tuesday 6-16-09
Trading after a down day?......price will usually bounce up the following day then resume the downward move or trend sideways.....but today may be different.....we have such great news .....but wait! is good news, good or bad today?.....I like to treat this like giving a kid a big candy bar. He'll probably burn of the sugar high by noon....any way.....spy really didn't break down below the 10 day range yesterday so we very well could return to weekly range high. yesterday was a low volume sell off . which leads me to think it was profit taking and not dumping....we have oil up/gold up/dollar is making up it's mind but down for now/ pivot is at Spy 9306....../ overnight es futures printed a 928.80 high / spy should get a small gap up above pivot....we will watch volume and tick very closely first 30 min ...for now i will stay with plan posted last night . and sell in the 93.50 ish area ...watch how price responds to trend line there.
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11:00 et am .......Dollar is weak and below yesterday range...xle is moving in high side of range and xlk is moving to top of range / tick is building a bullish bias in last hour but no big buys....
i dont expect price to hit any hard resistance till 12:30 et...we noodle along till then
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11:34 spy is breaking interday trend to down side next 5 min candle is a short....
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12:06 et pm.....ok this looks a good plact to put a toe in the water.....entered 2 option contracts
July Put 100 strike price ....82% Delta at spy price 92.75...... That is equilivent to 162 shares .....
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12:40 et pm....spy just broke 9242 support and gaining momentum ....good volume spike...and -1200 tick
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12:47 et pm ....all Xl's are back into the May range except XLK but it looks to be headed there as well....and the SPY ..ES futures just broke down through 920 this could mean a new low of 880 on the ES if we close below 920...
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1:00 et pm,,,, we made our 50 cents now we move stop down to 92.25
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1:20 et pm Xlk teck is the only thread holding this market at this level ......if it breaks ....it will be ugly......
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1:30 et pm......moving stop down to spy 92.01
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1:40 et pm ....selling pressure is starting to dry up for now ...so i covered my puts at 9192 .....for an 82 cent day...... so far.......
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2:15 et pm......looks like the bulls are trying to make s stand at spy 9170 ....they just put in a 5 min hammer and the tick is moving toward pos territory and price just broke the 5 min down trend.....price could test the 9242 and the pivot at 9306....
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4:00 et pm.......why not play the counter trend ?.......I find the counter trends on a 5 min day trade chart are too slippery, meander to much and most times short lived for most options trades. Most times you only break even or just lose money.......so on days like this , i would prefer to wait for the top of the counter to make my move .....they are easer to track and less risk ....as well as the price action with the trend is always smother and much more deliberat in direction.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Position Sizing and leverage
I get questions about position size and leverage at times and i must say IT DEPENDS.
......... My very first question every day is How can i make 50 cents.....
I try to asses the goal and risk of the trade first ....then I place a trade based on the fixed amount I am willing to lose should the trade go against my plan......
First i try to guesstimate 2 or 3 scenarios as to what direction the price will move..then decide the most likely path.......then I look for a past pattern structure ie: a resistance point or a flag structure to hide my stop behind.......the distance from my entry to the most reasonably protected stop location is my risk level....let say a stop that is 25 points away from my entry.... then my target needs to be at least minimum 50 points away from entry ..... I dont like to risk more than $200 on a trade.... so if the stop is too far away i will either reduce my size or pass and wait for a better entry....
I like to use front month Options high in the money with a Delta of .75 or better as a proxy for stock........I dont hold for more than a day so i am not concerned with experation time..... i want only the close corolation to the point for point price to value of the underlying stock....if you havent traded with options befor get a demo account and learn to trade with 1 contract and have a goal to make $50 a trade ....the most important goal is to learn to lose money less than you make it .....start with 1 contract which represents 100 shares of stock...Spy is $92 / share @ 100 shares = $9200 ..........whereas 1 option contract is $10 x 100 = $1000 which will have a delta of 1.00 and will move close to penny to penny with the stock price ......so for $1000 you can control 100 shares for the day or two ( I dont hold for more than two days) .... and get all the benifet of a day trade without the $9200 premium as well.....
Be cautious when using live funds with options and dont over leverage . These are great but are akin to Dinamite in the inexperienced hands.......I like to trade SPY, QQQQ, IWM , DIA because
there is plenty of daily volume in the options to easly enter and exit...... be carefull of very low volume options.....you may not be able to get out when you want or need to...
ProphetCharts: SPY
SPY ....probable target levels for Tues sell at 9347 to 9379 and exit at market close or carry to WED target 9180 to 9135....stop placement 94.15
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ProphetCharts: SPY
This SPY 2 Year chart is a study of ATR...Average True Range and Volume....notice when ATR is lowest and price is highest, the sell off is very abrupt....this time we also have 3 months of declining volume against increasing prices.....this has the potential to be explosive...to the down side ....expect wide volital swings and an incerasing Vix....also notice the 2007 Aug to nov price / volume divergence as well...
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Pre Market TAO Monday 6-15-09
It All about Safety vs Growth.........we are seeing the Dollar rally and commodities fall over weekend...this indicates the markets are moving toward safety this AM......Will have to watch how US markets respond ......as for now, Emerging markets as well as Asia and Euro markets are selling stock and buying treasuries....also suggests a move toward safety ..........ES futures are down and testing multi day rang low.......wil be watching opening Gap down on Spy for any sign of further break down below the ascending triangle we have been tracking for the past 8 days ....for now, ES at the "G" spot ....we could go either way .....right now i am long spy ......but ready to bail if market continues to show weekness......
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Havent seen a +500 tick all am...we are clearly in a down trend day ...the bull arem't even putting up a fight......we will see if we get a test of lower triangle trend and if price fails here. it is time to become bearish for the near future.....will consider switching to sell the rallys mode..
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4:02..et pm....very slow trading day.......this week is oxp ( options expiration ) in addition to all the indecision and low volume .....makes for a tough to trade.....this really dosen"t feel like a bearish sell off type down pressure day.......if there where a large bearish sentiment, they would have clearly had the opportunity ......so i really dont think a short play, other then scalp trades, is at this time the best way to go..... right here we are at a major support level SPY 92.00 area if price drops below there then we could be short....but for now the market is esencially directionless..... I have been long sence friday am so today was a bit panefull with a opening gap dow and run down to a stalled market . so i just sat it out and was expesting the crazie buyers to show at the close and they where hiding too...
for now i have closed out all my positions for a loss ...ouch! .... and am sitting on all cash...... we will see how the overnite markets look at todays session............we'll start out fresh in the am
Friday, June 12, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
Wow! something has got to give! This is a Bull vs Bear Slugfest...
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Pre Market TAO Friday 6-12-09
The TAO is neutral this am....After the big sell off at the close Es futures flatlined overnite and resumed selling at 5am et...
Spy will open a little down from close ...dollar is firming up and oil is selling off a bit ....still a buyer of dips so a move to wed's buy zone is a buy ,,,,
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9:40 et am..... financials strong......energy weak.... tick neg bias ....spy gap down but trying to rally
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10:21 et am ....tick is still neg bias ,big buyers havent stepped up to plate yet ...xl's have moved back up into yesterday range.....and just got first +800 tick with increasing volume.....i wouldnt call this a trend yet ...we need to fill am gap and hold above it....
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10:38..et am......looks like xly is selling below weekly lows....all xl's are in a miutiday range and lifting higher ......this could be a rotation of money out of consumer staples to more risker sectors....this makes sence with a low Vix ...
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10;45 et am spy just filled am gap ...now we see if she holds
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10:55 et am ....looks like gap is holding now we need to take out the pivot point at 95.08....and a little more volume , please sir....
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11:04 et ..am ..........es futures have moved above daily pivot and well above overnite lows....xl's are in wed/ thur range and nyse tick is mixed ...so we look to be range trading today......
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12:18 et pm...spy retraced am rally to 62% fib and now on way back up.....this should be wave 3...which should take price above pivot...
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1:12 et pm......the Nyse has been broken and it looks like their desk people are doing all the trades manually.....the market action remindes me of my cat coughing up a hair ball......
we're just dwaddling along......
Thursday, June 11, 2009
ProphetCharts: $VIX
Here is a long term weekly trend line of the Vix....the end of June is the target for a bounce.....this is also the end of the quarter.....here is where there can be a major reversal......this also correlates with the Spy projected target high....yesterday i talked about Mutual Fund window dressing buys into the end of the Quarter .....once the qtr is printed expect the big dump....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
This formation is on SPY 5 min interday......looks like a great set up for the big push to finally get well above the daily 200ma and range we have been stuck in the past 9 days
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ProphetCharts: $SPX
Spx ...S&P 500 ....this is a CUP and Handle Pattern which is a very Bullish formation....today was an interday break out of high and the second close above the 200ma...the 1000 target may be the next stop ....we need a break and close above this formation to conferm.
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Pre Market TAO Thursday 6-11-09
The daily TAO is green.....The overnite futures where basicly flat ...due to the June rollover to Sept.... I 'm still in buy the dip mode.....any return to yesterday buy zone is a buy......spy is still in multiday range.....
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10:00 et am.....spy is at or approching range high.....are we going to break away? or start a "F" leg down...I think... we get an "f" and "g" leg ........the tick or the volume supports a big break out this AM......just dosen't feel strong here...
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10:30 et am...if spy test this high and fails it will be a short play to yesterday low 93.50 ish place stop just above high ..
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11:45 et am......short AT 95.30 with stop above 95.50......target 93.50
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12:10 et pm ......covering short at 95.15 very small profit......the bond auction starts in 15 min... will watch for better tick and volume action
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12:35 et pm.......all the XL"S have remained in yesterday range other than xlk and xle.....the xlk is turning back down into range ......xle is still well above range but looks to be turning back down as well.....the naz....dow .....s&p ...russ ....all look like bull flags ........tick is very range bound but leaning to bullish side..............just watching for now....
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1:10 et pm.........looks like the market likes the bond auction yields got a strong tick up ....i"ll wait 30 min's to see how it is digested and wait for a support test to go long....we had a break out to the up side but volume was not huge ....and tick should be slammin the +1200 ....and it's not .........i am reserved here.....
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2:15 et pm ....i am long at support test of 95.70 looks like it is gona hold .....stop below 95.50
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2:40 et pm .... this is a very lethargic break out for a major area..... volume is poor and tick is still weak than expected...
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Ishould have suspected this was a false break out ......these markets are very bi-polar......that's why i keep stops so close to entrys........the last hour of trading i have concluded to be a waist of time ....it seem that the program trade Bots kick in and you just cant tell what they are going to do....i find the last hour of the day is like rolling dice.......there are two options 1. pull off the trade by 3pm or 2. ignore the last hour if you are with the major trend which will re assert itself in am trading.....to day i was long at 95.70......the market sold off inthe last hour 80 points.......I decided to add to my trade at the close and take the am trend up...
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Pre Market TAO Wednesday 6-10-09
looking to a early opening gap up ...expect gap to fill down to high 9390 then reverse to up side....the TAO is Green and i am a buyer at 94 or lower
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pre market gap up and sell off has moved back into multiday range .....if price remains below yesterday high we should see move to target buy area as the day progresses...
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2:00 et pm....I 'm in long AT 93.30 with stop below 93.00
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3:00 et pm .....Strong +900 ticks and increasing volume looking good to close....got some hurtles.......s1 @ 9405 , then volume weighted moving average @94.15 , then to pivot 9460 .... then r1 @95.17......got some selling supply at 50%fib too.
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3:46 et pm .......gona take profit here 94.10 ....nice day ...85 points.....buyers are not as aggressive as they have been on these dips........
ProphetCharts: SPY
Ascending Triangle .....are continuation consulidation patterns..I always buy the "E" ....with a stop under the "C"....a good E will rairly retrace all the way to the A-C trend line......This break out has the potential to be very explosive to the up side.
1. Most Bears are heavy short expecting a big down correction...but corrections can be sidways ie: time ....
spy has had 2 time corrections .. the month of May and the first 10 days of June...
2. The Dollar is showing more weakness . This is good for Equities and commodities.
3. Mutual Funds must speng the next 20 days Window Dressing their portfolios ....they will buy any brand name that has outpreformed in past 3 months even if the fundamentals are bad......and they will sell anything that has underpreformed even if the fundamentals look good....
4. SPY is at the 200ma ....any clean break above and hold for a week is very bullish...
5. Shorts are forced to buy back their shares at higher prices which adds rocket fuel to the fire.....
The price target could be 100 to 105
This could be the interesting....
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Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Per Market TAO Tuesday 6-9-09
Spy has been trading in multiday range 9510 to 9310 ......hard to tell where the market will go ...
dollar is trying to stage a come back but looks to be stalling , oil looks to be topped out ....gold cant hit that magic 1000 mark.....bond yield are rising..... the market is still in buy the dips mode ....so even though all indicators are not looking great for the markets....today i stay with the big money and they are still buying the dips......spy is sitting on the 200ma so the big mutual funds are afraid they will miss any up side and they are buying like crazy cause that is all they can do.........looks like we open flat so the best thing to do is watch the XL's and see who leads in the first 30 min"s...im thinking ... xlk because Texas Inst had a great earnings report............................................................. the plan today is to buy in low 93 ish and with a stop below 92.70 and sell 94.80
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1030 et am ....market has settled into a range day with spy 9500 high ....no significant buying or selling on nyse tick ....no real leader sector this am .....relative volume is low as well...
Thursday, June 4, 2009
ProphetCharts: SPY
Todays price action looks very much like a riseing mini Bearish Wedge....notice the falling volume vs riseing price divergence.....
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Day Trade Journal 6-5-09 Thursday
We opened gap up with a test of the jan high 94 at 945 amet.... and sold off to pivot 9351 ...we are just under pivot and noe having any strong neg ticks -800 looks to be a range day ....
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1127 et am we are filled at 94.20
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1156 et am spy is hovering at 9407 ...xle . xlf are leading all others look to be rolling over....tick is neutral
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dollar is starting to show weakness ....xl's stalled took a tiny profit 9387... nervous markets to day... europ is closing down ....hard to say what rest of day will do selling pressure isn't building ...
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130 pmet.......spy has moved up to and through tuesdat low support range .....past support can be future resistance......we are clearly above wed's range ...steady tick +1000 ..... I am skeptical of this rally because the volume has been dropping all day.....
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214 pm et .....spy is about to fill wed's opening gap....this could be a resistance point if not we have wed's pivot to test........ to days price action is really looking like a bearish mini wedge...
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if you read my post on SPX yesterday the close was a very nice looking evening star candle pattern at extreme bollinger band top on the daily chart.....most times the price will retrace back up to 50 % to 99% of the previous day candle ......evening star's are very good sell signals.....the best play would be to short as close to top of pattern9540 with a stop very tight just above high 10 -15 pionts...9550... ......expect price to move sideways for 4- 6 days if price dosent break above the high and watch for a nother bearish candle pattern to form ie: dark cloud , 3 inside down or another evening star to start the price moving down... keep a close eye on the tick and volume..........
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300 et pm watching the Naz and russell .....to see if they hold these highs.....or break down end of day....
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 311 et pm ....trend break spy.....with increasing volume ......
Pre Market TAO 5-4-09 Thursday
The over night action looks to be bullish for the US Dollar.....the ECB voted to hold rates as is...
the S&P futures printed an overnite range of 938 - 923 .....retail store sales are mixed to down...
and continues jobs claims were down slightly 4000 ....which is minuscule in the big number of 624,ooo jobs ..... still less than Horrible .
We are observing the 2 day rule...after a big run up, a decline on the first day should continue the second day and turn back up late the afternoon on the second day or beginning of third day.....
looks like we get a gap up at open .....
I will sell spy up to 94.20 and exit 92.75....stops at94.50
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
SPX 500 ...Evening Star pattern ...a very bearish candle signal....with formation at top of bollinger band this is significant.......this could definatly take the steam out of this rally and throw the price action sideways or down with a smaller bearish candle pattern in the next week.....check this out after close ...if it still looks like this we could be in for a reversal
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Pre Market TAO 6-3-09 Wednesday
Four Days up into Resistance all day yesterday....the market scraped every thing it had for the dow Diamond to touch the 200MA on low volume......S&P 500 Futures are trading at Tuesdays lows .....ADP jobs report was a bit better or as expected ( less than horrible) but still on pace for 9% reportable unemployment......the big guys are buying all dips the net NYSE tick is biased to the bullish side.... S&P is stradeled on the 200mA .....the financials are weak....and oil looks to take a nose down today ...the dollar is in a rally against all other currencys....euro stocks are down.....
I think we r in for a volital day....very strong mixed currents.......spy looks to open down to Tuesdays lows and remain in the lower range trading .....I will watch the first 30 mins and see if we break the bottom of yesterday range ....or bounce back to top of range.....keep an eye on the relative volume and nyse tick......the market today will be like a pressure cooker ready to blow....you can almost see the steam coming of the charts......it will be an interesting day...
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954 et am......opened well below tuesday low..... first big neg tick -800 ...xl"S selling...volume is up looke to be a down trend day start... broke s2 support 9359
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1030 et am......tick is not agressively showing sell pressure.....but is starting to lead to bear side....Xl"s are paused and selling volume looks to be letting up.....this could be a transition to the up side .....took short positions off here 9340.... wait for more selling to increase....
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1037 et am Helocopter Ben is still talking .....very hard to read whats next untill he shuts up....
this may be a good place to put on a long trade to top of range ....wait for + 800 tick
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1100 am et spy is sitting at may high......93.23......if we break this to the bdown side we could see that correction the market pros have been touting for the past 6 weeks....... keep your power dry traders..... tick is neutral could see sideways for next few hours.....keep u posted
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Day Trading Journal 6-2-09 Tuesday
We have had Three strong up days in a row...today can expect a range day ( yesterdays high and low) or a down day if price breaks below yesterdays low ...right now price it at the pivot of 94.63 and no tick above +800
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10..amet Xl's ar on the move higher ...and we just broke yesterday high.. Financials and Energy the laggards..Just tested Jan high again ....we wait pass or fail......xfl financial is weak and hasn't filled it's opening down gap ....and energy is losing upward mojo....this test may fail
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1021et am ...spy is back under high....if it rises and fails again ..im a seller here..
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1043 et am ....there are still alot more buyers than sellers here....must wait till selling pressure picks up...... no neg ticks -500 or more.... looks like there is some rotation in the Xl"s....to comsumer disc and staples and health care.....Treasuries are also telling us the market is weak...
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1055am et ...XLF financials broke today low ....we could get a fresh wave of selling---
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the Dollar is a victim of Timmy's Big mouth....Every time he opens it the Dollar Drops....
this whole market Rally the past month has been a pure Dollar weakness play.....as soon as Timmy Shuts up the Dollar will go up....
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Pending Home sales Are exactly That...... Question is ,How many of those Are investment co"s and speculators buying for rentals and flips vs Real Home buyers .....and how many will ultimately be actually finalized?
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1145 am et ......spy is back to the daily pivot.... nyse tick is not building up sell pressure -750 convincingly.....light sell vol at pivot......looks like range is going to maintain ... energy is weak as well as financial..Dollar is coming off bottom.
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The biggest market in the world is Bonds, and when Rates go down the Yield goes up.....that means.....the yield component is the gross amount the investor makes over the life of the bond...
This is a good Tell to determine the over all direction of money flow........money always follows the best return......therefore if yields are going up , money wants to move to the higher yields....that equates to less money flows towards equities .......
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Monetizing The Debt?.........That is secret code word for the Government to print more Dollars (funny money) ..to buy down the debt........ AhAA ......Timmay!
