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The Market Trader Tao
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Saturday, October 10, 2009

More Up to the Market Ahead

We are very close to a peak in this current leg. Spx 1120 area looks to be the target over the next 7-10 trading sessions.

The general optimism of earnings expectations will hold markets up for the next few weeks and bullish sentiment will continue to buoy prices.

Corrections develop two ways. A pull back in price or a sideways movement over time to absorb the momentum of the rally.

Every one is expecting a traditional retracement from the peak but there is much more misleading data today than the typical economic environments we have seen in the past.

Technically, the analysis suggests a near term turn to the down side. Traders are nervous and don't want to commit to the up side but are not eager to to sell . The Mutual fund managers are running out of gun powder as well. They got in late which explains the run up in the last leg and cant sell until the end of the year.

Foregoing a significant shock , less than luke warm earnings or disappointing guidance, I don't see enough bearishness or bearish media coverage to sustain any meaningful push down. Nor do I see any additional conviction of the buyers to move the the ball further up the hill.

I think the Market will move sideways in a range for the next quarter.
This level will present significant resistance over the next 3-4 months.
Ultimately investors will seriously begin to question and expect performance. When they realize true progress is not forthcoming the melt down will begin.

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