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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Is the Market Overvalued?

Picked this up from my friends at Slope of Hope blog sight via Zero Hedge.

*** Have you succumbed to the green shoots euphoria yet? We hope not. But if your trigger finger for stocks is getting restless, check out the following eleven reasons why chasing this rally could burn you.
These reasons put today's 60% surge into perspective by comparing it to an average of the same data points during the past five 60% rallies.

Rallies that occurred between May 1970 - August 1972, October 1974 - January 1976, August 1982 - April 1983, January 1990 - January 1994, March 2003 - January 2006.
The comparison below provides a stark reminder that government actions, not fundamentals, are driving this historic equity bubble. Understanding this difference might even save your retirement. You can thank us later. Data courtesy of Contrary Investor and Zero Hedge.

1.) Year over Year Retail Sales Growth: 9.3% average, 5.3% now
2.) Consumer Confidence: 95.5 average; 53.1 now
3.) Capacity Utilization: 79.9% average; 66.6% now
4.) Year over Year Industrial Production: 4.1% average; -10.7% now
5.) ISM: 53.9 average; 52.6 now
6.) Payroll employment gains over period: 2.2% average; -2.0% now
7.) Decline in continued unemployment claims from cycle peak: -26.3 average; -11.6% now
8.) Year over Year growth in total credit market debt: 9.3% average; 3.0% now
10.) Year over Year growth in household debt: 8.8% average; -0.1% now
11.) P/E Multiple: 16.8x average; 20.0x now

*** These facts tell you that the market fundamentals are rubbish and that the market is overpriced. Really, the only thing driving this rally is hot money created out of thin air by the Fed's money-printing policies.
Hot money can flood into assets quickly (taking the market up 60% since March). But this type of money can also flood out of assets just as fast.
It's because hot money is made up of traders trying to turn a quick profits. They hope to buy now and sell to a greater fool later on.
It's a recipe for disaster. When these traders think they've become the greater fool, they'll sell everything in the blink of an eye.

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