Merry Christmas Morning

Happy Holidays

Have a Cookie too....

SPY A Perfect Doji Close

A Perfect Doji close is indecision.

SPY Closing at the top of the Rectangle just barely a new high daily close.

Overnight the world markets are showing softness and the Euro /USD is down as well .

The Spy will open Gap down @ 111.25 and I expect another return to the 1085 level with a Friday close about 110 ish due to options expiration.

Seasonality suggests this week of Dec is very Bullish and I think this is what every one expects but the market is give the unexpected so stay tight on the stops .

The big risk today is a higher close and if that happens we will go higher up to Spx 1120-1135

Inverted Head and Shoulders Break Out

This what a good Head And Shoulders break Out looks like...notice the big build in volume at the break....

This is also an excellent long Entry point.
Expect some test of the neck line this week.
ALB is on the move to higher ground.
$40 is the target

Ag Chems Are on the Move

TNH Terra Nitrogen Asymmetrical Triangle long trade is good for $4 up to D and then $4 down to E then I expect to see break to the up side for $8 more ....By Feb 2110

International Markets are Weakening

This Asymmetrical Triangle Tracked out perfectly and broke down.

Lower Highs and Lower lows....Th real test will be to crack the horizontal support line below this level.

Some ask me if I think the Candle Wicks are significant to drawing pattern trend lines and I think the wicks tell us a lot about the sentiment of the day but it is the close that really counts.

The softening of the International Markets only supports the last 3 oil field charts I posted..

I expect a retest of the rising trend line first .

Another possibility is, this is the "c" wave of a long Descending Triangle with an apex at mid Febuary 2010

Diamond Offshore Triangle Pattern

Descending Triangle Pattern.

This is not finished and could follow the Green path and break to the up side after the holidays.

If This Pattern is going to break to the down side , we should see it happen Monday Or Tuesday and follow the red path..

These Are + $5 legs ....so they are very tradeable..

Suncore Head and Shoulders

SU Suncore Head and Shoulders Pattern . I expext to be at the neckline Monday or Tuesday.

This may not break untill after FridayOptions Expiration .


To trade this Wait until a daily close below the neckline. And a large spike in daily Volume.
The Target would be 26 ish with a resistance at 29 to push through.

It is important to remember this is a rectangle Pattern also and if the neckline dose not break we can easily revisit the top of the right shoulder and head....Pay attention to how price reacted the last two times it touched this level.....always look to the left for past support and resistance structures where price can react .

SNP China Petro

Snp Triangle ..... This is the place where the pros buy ...notice the last two times the buyers where aggressive but this time there is indecision. Monday will tell us what to do. It will take 15 days to get back to 90.00 and less than a week to go to 70.00 if this breaks down.

To trade this Wait until the close Monday to place your order.

SPY-der Monkeys at War

Hey all Spy-der Monkeys ...
In My career as a Trader, this is the most difficult and scariest trading tape I have ever seen.

With an Spx 1086 to 1112 range and professional Island Reversal gaps every other 2 sessions , It is almost impossible to effectively Day trade. The past month feels like we are on a March of Doom....

Something is going to break and break hard..Can't say what direction ..so be ready

I am thinking next week early will show us some direction.

Until then I am going to do some Options Break Point and Swing trading Holds overnight for 1 to 3 days of a few selected individual picks ... such as AAPL,GS,POT,IBM,Rimm, and a few others...I will post some charts over the weekend

Market TAO Wednesday

Hard to say where we go today but it looks like we gap up to spx 1095 and run to 1100 then slowly sell off rest of day ..... ending in a Doji

My spy plan is to sell the Gap and run up 110.00 and exit at or below 109.20

Market TAO Monday

Markets are still in a sideways range not much has changed . Fed Chairman Bernackie Spoke around noon and the market sold off a bit after he finished. His mind set has not changed for the near term. Took two small scalp trades . I am standing on sidelines waiting for a clear direction...

Wild Ride This Week

Market TAO Thursday

One More Day ...Ground Hog Thursday....The Rectangle Pattern is still in play.

Price was rejected today at upper resistance and sold off in the first hour then paused for the remainder of the day until the last 30 min's then totally Tanked down to the 50% fib!

I expect price to retrace back to the upside at the open at least 50 % of today's range SPX 1105 up to 1110 area then sell off again into the close. A good target would be the 1070-75 area with an unfilled gap..

Past Transport Rectangles Resolve to the Upside

Transports 4 Tops and Rectangles

Dow Transports 4th attempt to break to the upper resistance.

Doji Day

Doji Day and Rectangle Top Day 16

Not much to say here.....

we will see how the Asians and Europeans do overnight.

Target is still SPX 1085 unless we break and close above the Rectangle

Market TAO Wed 12-0209

Rectangle Top still in play...Day 15

Overnight ES futures remained in a 1110 to 1105 range. The Euro/USD is trading in a narrow range as well but looks to be turning to the down side .

I expect Spx will put in a Doji day today with another test of the yesterday high and a 50% retracement of of yesterday range .

Keep an eye on the XLF it held back all day when all other sectors where (+) 1 to 2 % .... MM maybe setting up for a catapult type cannonball push to the up side .

We are seeing a rare but possible Triple Top if this 1112.50 SPX fails ..so it can go either way.

We can also plan for a Gap fill at SPY 110.10 .......Then a Bounce up from there.....

My Spy plan today is to Sell up to the high of yesterday and exit at or below the The Gap fill....

Be Nimble today...

Market TAO Tuesday 12-01-09

Topping Rectangle .....

Range Trading for the last 14 days.

A break above 1112 or below 1086 is what I'm looking for . Otherwise, the range is the trade zone.

If the current cycle continues, we should see a move down to the red oval in the next 3 days.

More Info on Topping Rectangles

visit this link http://thepatternsite.com/recttops.html



Overnight the es futures are up and the open SPY is a gap up....

My Spy plan is to buy the opening gap about 110.80 and run up to 111.10 - 50 and exit trade.....
this looks to be a potential trend day up so an attempt to fade the rally may not work...most times a strong rally day will close at the HOD ....keep an eye on the USD and XL's for divergence

Market TAO Friday 11-27-09

As I have mentioned in previous posts, the markets are looking for a catalysis to spark a sell off...

Thursday announcement of the Dubai Credit crisis has put the world markets in a state of extreme concern.

As I am writing this markets world wide hav sold off 3-4% overnight. Th US Dollar is at an all time high short interest at 94%. When the Us Markets open the morning I expect a major rush from the equity bulls and the Dollar Bears all running for the door at the same time.

There have been plenty of signals warning of this event and it now looks like we are looking into the abyss once again.

Above is a 15 min chart of ES SnP Futures I will be watching this very close at the open ....
As you can see it sold off substantially overnight. This will translate into a very large SPY gap down . I anticipate a bounce up into the yellow Fib retracement zone before a resumption of the sell off as you can see, there may be support at the red Zone .

My Spy plan today Is to Buy Spy Jan Puts on any bounce into the yellow zone ..Scale in on 3 buys 38% 50% and 62%..This may be a hold over the weekend play particularly if we break and close below the red zone.

A good Spy conversion rate is Spy 10 cents for every Es futures Point.

Thanksgiving 2006 US Dollar Collapse

Please Sign Investment Tax Petition

http://www.rallycongress.com/no2tradertax/1536/tell-congres-to-block-trader-tax/

Have you signed the petition to shoot down the Trader Tax Bill?

Ed Grimley Triangle Solo

Holiday Market Action

Turkey Cookie

Market TAO Wed 11-25-09

Cup and Handle with an inverted Head and Shoulders

Who's Got the Tab?......You!

Market TAO Monday 11-23-09

Lunar Cycles are 21 days the next phase will be on Dec 3rd....

Spx is beginning to show signs of topping.

Thanksgiving Holidays are usually bullish so be careful of reversal behavior.


My SPY plan today is to buy the gap and run up to 111.20 then reverse position to sell down to 109.00 or lower

Patiently Waiting for The Feast

Market TAO Friday 11-20-09

Market action today .....My best Guess.....

price will most likely retrace 38 to 50 % of yesterday and pin to the weekly Pivot into the close.....Spx 1090 to 94

my Spy plan today is to sell the rally up to 110.24 and exit at or below 109.14

I f ..it doesn't happen by European close, then I'm done for the week...

I was Early today...... The Same SPY Plan For Monday...... have a good weekend

Tues Wrap Triangle

Odds are we go higher out of this Triangle ....watch out for the false break outs..

Push for The Fib 50

The final assault!
Push for the fib 50 is underway....

Spx 1120-50 long term trend zone is the target this week. This will give us a spike shooting star candle

I must say this will be swift so don't fall in love with any direction.....take profit quickly.

I f the price holds and we get a open and close day above 1121 next week then the market moves higher....

or

price touch the fib 50 and reverses back to lower fib fan line.......notice how price has responded to the fib fan lines..

My Spy plan today is to buy down to spy 110.85 the opening gap and ride the run up until it stops going up 111.70 up to 113.85... .

Market TAO Tues 11-17-09

Overnight Es futures are down and the US Dollar is a bit up........

Spy is at a key inflection area....if we remain above 1100 then we most likely go higher ..this is options expiration week and historically the week has been bullish .....My SPy plan today is to approach the open with a neutral stance and wait 30 min's ... Will update after open

TGIF the Bar is Open

Market TAO Friday 11-13-09

Reports due this AM .....US dollar is steady ...My Spy plan is to sell up to 109.75 and exit at or below 108.07

Ascending Broadening Wedge

Works much like a Bearish rising Wedge...

A rising formation breaks out downward 70% of the
time.

For downward breakouts:
The lowest price in the formation is the minimum price move to expect.

For upward breakouts:
The formation height is added to the breakout
price.


Partial rise:

If a stock shows a partial rise and begins to head back toward
the lower trend line, consider selling short.

More info on Ascending Broadening Wedge http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html

SPY Evening Star

The Evening Star is a Reversal Candle Pattern.
This dotted yellow line and blue candle is what the next trading day should look like.

Blast Off

The fifth bear trap the bulls have laid since MARCH!

The Market makers are calling for 1120 buy end of the year .... after today's action It wouldn't surprise me to see it tomorrow..

After the poor Friday performance the bears gave. With a gift of 10.2% unemployment report, I don't think they have it in them to significantly push the market down more than 2 maybe 4 % max at any one time.....

The Bulls have the power via the FED to Gut the US Dollar at will and they have unlimited supply of Central bank cash to push this market higher..and the O'Man wants a weaker Dollar because it help the US Export Market......so it is a loser to be a bear for more than a few hours....So We make the Bull Penguin Fly!
It's not really a bull use your imagination

Ending Diagonal

Ending Diagonal SPX

The Market set up very nice for a reversal Monday with a terminating signal at the end of the C wave and the top of wave 2 with a potential of very nasty and long downward wave 3 to begin.

We could see a bit of an overthrow at the open to touch the top of the rising bear wedge ....stops should be placed above the resistance zone ....if it gets above there this is not an ABC retracement but a possible resumption of the larger up trend.


http://neboxian.blogspot.com/2008/08/triangle-reversal-pattern-part-3-of-3.html

Here is a Video I made on reversal triangles the Technical term for them is Ending Diagonal but I try to use more generic terms ...What is Important is to get an understanding of the basic concept.
http://neboxian.blogspot.com/2009/07/markit-tao-thurs-7-23-09.html
Here is an example of an ending diagonal Failure..... that's why I encourage stops.....if ED's fail they are very explosive... and if ED'S work they are as equally successful.....

Fall Montague

Fall Montague

Who is Really pushing this Market?

I was Talking to friends about this yesterday.....I have been trading over 30 years and never have I seen such Shenanigans played out as in this market ...

Article by : Chris Martenson ....very good read!


http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/market-recap-ridiculous-productivity/30966

Market TAO Friday 11-06- 09

OK... It's Game day! the bears had better show up today with a 10.2 unemployment rate ...If they don't,then they deserve to get it right up the A#$%$...!

Options Trading Stocks to Watch

These are great stocks to follow and day trade with options.
The open interest is very high which makes for easy execution.

When day trading the Delta and Implied volatility are the things to consider.
Deep in the money strike price will give a higher Delta.

I prefer a delta of 90 down to a minimum delta of 50.

That means if I select a Strike price with a Delta of 0.50 and the underlying stock moves $1 the option returns .50 cents times 100 shares. Another way to look at it is, I control 50% of 100 shares per option contract.

The Theta is your time component and comes into play when holding overnight, weekends and into expiration...Although I am in most trades for less than 2 hrs , I prefer to trade options with a minimum 30 days or more of Theta,,,for safety

GOOG
BIDU
RIMM
AAPL
AMZN
POT
MA
GS
WYNN
XOM
ISRG

Market Tao Thurs 11-05-09

Looks like the jobs report came in better than expected.

US dollar Down

Spy to open Gap up at 105.70

financial' s, teck , and industrial' s will lead the AM session


My SPY plan is to Buy the gap and run...... Spy gap fill down to 105.00 and exit above 106 up to 107

Shooting Star Candle Pattern

This is a Shooting Star Candle Pattern..

I would prefer to see them as a top reversal candle but this market activity has not been typical for over a year.

This has developed at the end of a down move over the last 12 days. It closed inside the downward channel and below the purple long term up trend line....so I am optimistic to further movement to the down side but approaching this with caution.

I would like to consider this as a continuation signal and see the Blue blocks develop in the next 2 days and continue lower next week. A break below 1040 and hold would be very bearish....

The 2nd possibility is a retracement up to the 50% Fib line

Bull Market Gone Bad

Based on my Analysis over the weekend the Weekly Charts of the Trans, SPX, Naz, and Dow are beginning to convince me we are definitely rolling over to the down side.....The markets are showing signs of weakness in all sectors and the US Dollar appears to be in the beginnings of a rebound........With all that , I am moving to a sell the rallys mode . I am still cautious of suprise up spikes... so for this week small size trade placement will stay in effect.....if spx remains below 1040 after Monday close I feel confident we will continue to further broader market weakness...

Happy Hallowen

Wile E. Coyote vs Road Runner

Spy is at 0:26 on this cartoon

Market Tao Fri 10-30-09

Last night my office was flooded so that put a kink in my morning.....

things are back to normal now ...sort of....

looks like plan red and yellow are working ......this is in the bounce zone now ........be ready for both directions.

GOODBYE PHILADELPHIA (MUSIC VIDEO)

Right now the world Series Phi vs NYY Game 2 is on and we are down 2 runs ......but I have faith the Phillies will carry the series....

Defense Friday

SPX.....We have 3 options for Defense Friday.



1...we sell off at the open... Red path
2...we sell off at the open and bounce and hover....yellow path
3....we rally at the open and hover

4... play Beatles Rock Band all day and let them use their money to sort this mess out....


I will take a look at the futures in AM and may be we have a better idea where we are headed.

GDP.....It's a Setup!.....For the Bulls!

We are seeing a series of higher highs......and higher lows.....that is still a Bullish trend.....Get Ready for the Bounce.....

Look at the chart I posted last night...

My Spy plan is to buy any dip at the open down to 104.14 and hang on for a 2% push today up to 106.20......

I'm feeling lucky today...the Phillies won last night!!!.

Possible Gap Bounce

Got it half today right.....Spx sold off...I didn't expect a super extended minute wave 5 down after the European close.....

I showed up expecting a fight with the bulls and they pulled a toilet plunger on me ...
They waved me off with a California Howdy( the Bird) and went back into the barn...

after that there was not a buyer in sight....

Classic Step aside bull tactic.. I have seen this movie many times....

I am expecting a small sell at the open then a bounce out of this gap fill spx 1040.50....
It could go as high as 1074.92 but I would be happy with 1060 up to 1060.50....

But...be prepared..if the gap bounce fails, there is nothing to stop the fall until 1020 to 1016.00

Market TAO Wed 10-28-09

Overnight it got very red out there....

Asia down
Europe down
Us Dollar down
Euro Dollar down ????
Gold down
Oil down
news tape bearish

Very hard to make a case for the Bulls particularly after my last post ......will the market magically levitate for the next 3 days? we will see signs after the durable goods and new home and oil supply after 10:30 et ...They are just gona have to spin this ... It's the End of the year for the Money Managers they got to pump this up in two days for Gods sake!....! or die!

spx is resting on 20day ma....

pivot daily
PP 106.60
S1 is 105.91- 87
pivot weekly s2 105.82

My Spy plan to day is to buy the Spy at the low after oil report 10:30 et ...spy 105.90 down to 105.63 ( stop placement 10 points below@ 105.50)and hold to the gap fill 108.30 ish

Money Manager End of Year Markup

Market shenanigans for next 3 days.

I expect price action over the next 3 days to appear to defy gravity.

This is the end of October and the end of the year for Money Managers.

Many will pull out all the stops to push up prices in an effort to use the higher looking performance even if it is only good until Friday close to claim the final print as their end of year return.

So I expect a early AM dip and the drive will begin and lasting relentlessly all day... and for Thursday the drive will continue until the end of the day ....for Friday Prices will appear to be frozen in space and time into the close........Monday will be release day...ie : sell sell sell.

I am expecting at least a 2% push....could go higher.

My Spy trade plan in the AM Oct 28 ,09 is to buy the low in the first 30 min's Spy Gap fill 106.00 down to 105.50 and hold until spy 107.79 up to 108.50 ....will do a premarket up date in AM

Market TAO Tues 10-27-09

Markets overnight are mixed .

Asia down
Europe up

waiting for home sales reports

Es futures flat

I expect a narrow range day .
there has been one penetration and one touch of the extreme Bollinger Band in the past two days on the 2 hr SPX chart suggesting a flatting out of price action for next 7-16 ....2 hr bars...

my plan today is to scale into spy up to 108 and exit at or below 106.50 down to touch of gap 106.00

Market TAO Monday 10-26-09

More of the same today...Asia and Europe are up , US Dollar weak ...Trading range is expested to be confined to the Triangle until Wed's ...... There is no way to determine which direction the market will break......I COULD MAKE GOOD ARGUMENTS FOR EITHER DIRECTION....

My plan today is to buy the SPY low retracement after the opening gap up at 108.32 and reverse position at touch of triangle upper trend line for another ride down ........ 100 point range trade.

Market TAO Week Ahead 10-25-09

The Bulls fought very hard to hold this lower triangle trend line at the close on Friday. This is a significant place ..

As you can see failure to hold above and break out of the Triangle to the up side will most likely see the Gap below filled .....

Triangles are difficult to trade... use small amounts and tight stops to trade the interior body.... be nimble...

we will most likely know the direction of the break by end of week.

James Taylor-Up On The Roof

Eva Cassidy - Somewhere Over the Rainbow

Pumpkin Patch

Prespectives 10- 23-09

Been doing this way back to 1978.....the fundamentals are for the first time in my life thrown out the window.....most of the metrics I learned to trade with don't provide any true since of reference. It has come to a point no one trusts the analysts or the anointed reporting entities either. I am amazed at how bullish the markets are to date...To a point, I am questioning my own point of view and wanting to give in to the BS.....The media makes me nauseous because I know what is going to happen...I really think they do too....That is why it is being so over sold every day. The shift is now moving away from the USA...... but to where? What are the new reference points and how are they to be measured? As a day trader this all really doesn't affect my performance....but there is a heavy weight in the atmosphere.

Market TAO Fri 10-23-09

SPx will either break above upper resistance lines or remain in this sideways forming channel

....Overnight we saw it all go up Oil,Gold, Asia, Europe ...even the USDollar..

Spy Will Gap up to 109.83 resistance line...

Home sales report due and Bernakie is talking as well.....I always lose money when he talks...

So my plan today is to remain neutral
and see how price responds to these upper resistance lines.

If we gap up and break lines I'll go long and we most likely head to Spx 1120.

If the lines hold... we will most likely spend the rest of day up here fighting it out. I dont anticipate any meaningful sell off today.