Is IT a Bull Market Yet?

Notice the 40 & 200 WMA crossover and Volume Spikes.
Could be beginning of new Bull Trend......wait for volume spikes in next few days

Moving Average Stock Chart ...S$P 500

10/40/200 Time Period Weighted Moving Average

Click on chart to Enlarge

The Moving average is buy far one of the most useful and popular technical indicators.
The WMA Weighted Moving Average uses past price performance as a predictive tool for future price movement .

To use this tool properly, it is important to understand and be aware of the chart time frame you're viewing.

The moving average calculates the past 10, 40, 200 time periods and generates a line on the chart. If you're on a daily chart the 40 ma will be a line representing the past 40 (days).
If you're on a 15 minute chart the 40 ma will be a line representing the last 40 (15 minute time periods).

There are several ways to calculate moving averages

Simple Moving average.......is the basic moving average.
Exponential moving average...is a simple moving average with a deviation component used to smooth the line out.
Weighted moving average...is an exponential moving average where the most current time periods are weighted to be more relevant or significant.

Signficant Points:

1. Look at the Above chart......notice how the 10 wma follows the price closer than the 40 wma.

2. On the left side of the chart the 10 wma is well above the 40wma(this is a Bullish trend).
also notice the rising volume.

3. Then notice how the 10 wma begins to turn down toward the 40 wma and continues to cross over the 40 wma . Again notice the volume.

4. Once the 10 wma passes under the 40 wma the trend is then considered Bearish.(Sell Signal)
also notice the red volume selling spike the first time the 10 wma touched the 40 wma.

5. The 10 wma continued to move down to the 200 wma and bounced twice (double bottom).
Notice the long red sell candles as the price moves down. (indicates high volatility ).
Notice the 2 red sell volume spikes when the 10 wma first touches the wma 200.
Also notice the second bounce was not as low as the first. (first confirmation of a bottom)

6.Then 10 wma moved back up to and crossed over the 40 wma where the trend becomes bullish again. (Buy Signal)


Always....Always.....Always .....BE Aware of the time frame you are looking.
It is very important to remain in context with the prevailing trend and overall price movement.

The 10 wma and 40 wma are in months on the above chart.. but on a Daily chart the wma's would be the past (10) one hour periods or the past (40) 15 minute periods...

this the biggest mistake a new chart reader will make....The wma's are still relivent but only for the time frame of the specific chart time frame.....

Don't get in to a trap of looking at weekly chart and make your trading decisions based on the hourly chart.... or visa versa, they're two different worlds.

As you look at different chart time frames , you will notice the same kind of price movements
on a 30 minute intraday chart as with the weekly 5 year chart...

As a Swing or Day Trader,

I use the yearly,monthly and weekly charts for over all perspective.
I base all my buying and selling decisions on the intradaily- 30 minute and 5 minute charts.
I will use the 1 hour and 1 minute charts to gage the rhythm of cycles.

To keep my perspective, many times I'll print off and put up a 3 month and a 2 year chart while trading the intraday 30 minute chart.
It is easy to get so close to the bushes, you lose track of where the trees are.

If I make a decision to buy stock on the 30 minute chart, I will stay with the 30 minute chart until I make the decision to sell....Don't buy in on the 30 minute chart and then jump over to the 3 minute chart to decide when to sell.....Every time I tried it , I got confused and ended up losing money or getting out too early or too late.

Avoid The Wipe Out!

The market is indifferent to all.

As the moon is to the Ocean, so is the market to the trade.

The wise trader is indifferent to the trade.

As the tide is to a sand castle , each trade is as a straw dog.



Market sectors are as oceans, each with their own kind.

Rise and fall of a wave, as a clock in time.

Space between the waves are as sleeping volcano's.

Compressing down yet building up.


The Fifth Constant Market Trader Tao

"Large waves require patience and commitment.
Medium waves expect endurance and strength.
Small waves demand attention and agility.

When searching for starfish in the tide waves, A wise trader always
knows where the big waves are."

Neboxian

READING THE CURRENTS ......For Beginners

S&P 500 Volume 20 Year Annual


















This is A Moment for Great Opportunity...
The Risk is being on the right or wrong side of the trade.

Volume is Like A Tug Boat Pushing the Price Barge UP And
Down the Chart.

The Resistance line is like a narrow passage in the river .
The resistance Current can be very strong against forward progress.
Once the price is pushed through the resistance line, the strong
resistance current lessens significantly and the price will continue
to move easier in the same direction. There will also be an extra
spike in buying volume.

On the other hand, if the price fails to push through the
resistance, the prevailing current will reverse
the price very quickly and price will be pushed back toward a
previous level of resistance along with a spike in selling volume.

When the price action flattens out for 4- 9 time periods that
means the Tug Boat is working very hard to break through..
This a time for patience.
.....There are a number of terms for this .activity.
Consolidation, coiling (tighten like a spring), distribution.
All these terms convey the building up of energy.

A good example of this is the moment before opening of the
nozzle of a garden hose under pressure.... Once you open the nozzle there is
a blast of water volume under a lot of pressure...it's also
to notice the direction the nozzle is pointed.

Many times it is difficult to tell which direction the price will go.

I will anticipate the price will go with the prevailing trend but
also watch closely for other evidence of of my predilection.
I am always ready to quickly move out of my position should
the market say otherwise.

If there Questions ....leave them in the comments section ... NeboXian

Week end Fun Time...Just for Girls

A large Majority of my readers are Women.
So Here's Yours Girls.

Goodbye Summer!

Music by: Peter Cincotti
Goodbye Philadelphia
_____________
Have a Great Week End and
Go have some Fun.

Dont Get All Tangled Up!

There are many places you can make it fast or lose it faster

Options, Futures, E-minis, Forex...all these
products work great! But jumping into the
water to soon could easily produce an outcome

we can only imagine in this picture.

These products have GREAT potential
to make money in theskilled traders' hands.

With Common Stock one can purchase and walk away for
months or in some cases years and can return having a
reasonable expectation of all the money plus growth will
be waiting.

On the other hand, the above mentioned trading instruments
are not designed the same way. They are heavily leveraged
Instruments as much as 200 to 1.
This 200 to 1 leveraging can work
with you or against you in equal magnitude!

Many new and some older investors don't really
understand the concept of leveraged Instruments.
But they will try to trade the market and very quickly
realize the market is cruel.

To give you a better picture of this, lets look at the house
equity you used to leverage your home loan.

To keep it all simple, the value of your house drops and
the bank calls your loan in.

There are three options.

1. Come up with the cash to cover the difference.
2. Put up other property of equal value.
3. They take your house.

Imagine how this would play out if your house house
value dropped from $300,000 down to
$150,000 in a few months?

Leveraged Stock market Instruments can do this Quite
often and in fact do.

The old mind set of buy'm and hold'm Will NOT Work
with many leveraged products.

If you're not able to hover over the trade like an
Eagle, ready to pounce at any moment, then most
leveraged investments will in most cases become
a big disappointment.

Market Trader Tao

"The Wise trader walks the path easily seen.
It is best to learn the potential of the Lion
before stalking, to prevent becoming the prey."
NeboXian

Volume is the first place to look... Lesson 2

Beginners 101...

A significant change in volume is telling us something is happening
to the opinion and emotion of the people holding an interest in the stock.

This could be Good.....or ..This could be Bad.
That depends on the number of sellers vs buyers trading.

If the high volume is a result of more sellers, then expect
the price to begin to fall.

If the High volume is a result of more buyers, expect the price to move up.

Many times the stock price will continue to move in the current
direction, while the volume, is showing the momentum is changing...

A good example of this is, if you throw a ball in to the air, as it
reaches the highest point, the ball loses upward momentum (slows down) but
continues to move up for a very short period of time.
Then the ball reverses direction ...and increases momentum again in the opposite
direction.

We are looking for this type of divergence of price direction and volume momentum.
In stock price /volume comparison, this principle works in both directions.

Market Trader Tao

"The wise trader always travels with the trend as a mountain stream.
Watching for the change in the current ahead will keep you on
the right side of the trade."

NeboXian

IT's Always about VOLUME!

Large changes in volume mean something
is happening...it should get your attention.

Powered by ScribeFire.

Market Trader Tao... Eight...

The strongest position is with the Trend
Flow with it as water.

Do not struggle with the correction
move smoothly without hesitation
Treat the reversal as a bolder in the stream.

Others fear the low places.
Be as water and seek the low places

Trade in that which you like and understand.
Be kind to your self.
Encourage your self in speech.
Govern your self in thought.
Work earnestly, skillfully and diligently.
In trading, be efficient, act only when the time is right.

Do not compare your self to others.
Above all, do not place blame when thing go wrong.



Market Trader Tao Eight

"The Wise trader is patient, always seeking the trend. Moving as water over the obstacles, have faith in the planning. Always be ready to act when the time is right."

NeboXian

____________________________

Nebo

Trade School For Beginners... Day ONE

BEGINNIERS ONLY .. S&P 500.. Class 101 ....Day 1

Between now And the First of the Year We will Study The S&P 500.

So by the time Things Really Get Rollin again ....YOU ...Will be ready to..

Trade The Market with the Wisdom of the TAO.

Now Most Big time Traders Will think this stuff is a Bit Hooky. But ....They Have already made all the money so there's probably not gona be any left for the rest of us...anyway.

There are Zillions of Bucks out there, and I'll Be Happy to Share the Crumbs with all of you.

OK Let's get started.......

WHAT is the Standard and Poor's 500 Index? (S&P 500)

Simply put...you average the value of 500 companies each worth over 10 billion Dollars...

It is used as a Weather vain to Gage the overall Health of the economy. Kinda like a daily Weather report.....And we all under stand Weather......It Changes all the time....But always stays in a seasonal range....just like the stock market....the Index is a relative number to the total of all 500 companies considered....right now the S&P 500 is at 1489.42

The S&p Report Doesn't mean much to most people, but if you have money in the markets.....its a way to compare every thing else..... a place to begin...a point of reference.

Now to the Chart.....This is a chart of the S&P over the past 70 years....

1. First Question class....which way is it going? ( up or down)

2. From 1930 to now, how many times did it reverse direction?( count #___ peaks some big some small) about 14 -16 times

3. what dose the top look life it's going to do next? (up or Down)

Fortunes have been made and lost on each one of those little Peaks and valleys.

_________________________________________

That's the lesson for today.....if you want to read more ...start with Market Trader Tao :ONE.

Market Trader Tao

Lesson 1:

"There are Thousands of Stocks , Thousands of Terms And
Thousands of Experts.

All designed for and desire to make Money yet desire less of your personal
participation.

in other words... it makes no difference to the
market if you're in or out, make money or lose .It doesn't care if it
knows your name or you know theirs.

Yet it exists for one single purpose......to make
someone MONEY

Herein lies the Pivot point the fulcrum if
you will...

For every dollar made, there is a dollar lost and for
every buyer, there is a seller.

These Two Spring from the the same source... "

NeboXian

LMT Relitive to S &P

This Is a Relative % of performance chart of LMT and S&P 500...
notice the Double top of the S&P as well as the great divergence of
price action sense Aug of 2006.....You don't stay that far ahead of
The S&p with out It catching up ...or you Slowing down...If the S&P
dose Not Move Higher out side of the Yellow Range Then It"s not
very likely LMT or Most other Defence Stocks will continue to
see significant Gains.

Charts: LMT

LMT is at a major resistance level as well as the beginning

of a diamond top formation, in addition, the trend
direction has stalled out.The trend began around
April 2004 and has had 4 major lifts.
As a rule The 5th is usually the final and
weakest peek prior to a correction (small reversal of trend)...
Lmt as well as many of the Defence Stocks Will most
likely continue to trade relatively
flat until early 2008...The next 6 months  will be
a good time for swing traders .
there will be plenty of volatility . 

Didn't President Bush get mostly "C"s in Collage?

Mathematician has President Bush all figured out.

From correspondents in Tehran

September 03, 2007 06:14pm

Article from: Agence France-Presse

PRESIDENT Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has sought to justify

his confidence the US will not attack Iran, saying the proof

comes from his mathematical skills as an engineer and faith

in God, the press reported today.

Mr Ahmadinejad told academics in a speech that elements

inside Iran were pressing for compromise in the nuclear

standoff with the West over fears the US could launch a

military strike.

"In some discussions I told them 'I am an engineer and I am

examining the issue. They do not dare wage war against us

and I base this on a double proof'," he said in the speech

yesterday, reported by the reformist Etemad Melli and

Kargozaran newspapers.

"I tell them: 'I am an engineer and I am a

master in calculation and tabulation.

"I draw up tables. For hours, I write out different hypotheses.

I reject, I reason. I reason with planning and I make a conclusion.

They cannot make problems for Iran."'

This video pulls it all together

it's ok...It's OK !... I SAID!... IT'S! ... OK?

This was published late Friday in The Guardian

It may not be a good idea to jump out there first thing Tuesday....give it a few hours and just watch..don't be like Butch and the Sundance Kid...


Barclays admits borrowing hundreds of millions at Bank's emergency rate· 'Technical breakdown' in clearing system blamed· Pound falls as news swirls around money markets Ashley Seager, Larry Elliott and Julia KolleweFriday August 31, 2007The Guardian
Barclays has been forced to borrow hundreds of millions of pounds from the Bank of England's emergency lending facility for the second time in a fortnight, it was revealed last night.
In a hurried and emotive statement after London's markets had closed, Barclays attempted to calm fears that it faces a cash crisis. Rumours had circulated all day that Barclays was forced to go to the Bank of England after the central bank said it had lent £1.6bn at its penal rate of 6.75%. It is thought that Barclays borrowed the entire amount.

Trading the Wedge

Trading the Wedge

By Toni Hansen

Description: This is a specific type of triangle that has a noticeable slant to it with higher highs and higher lows for an ascending or rising wedge or lower highs and lower lows for a descending or falling wedge. The characteristics detailed below apply to a rising wedge for a short setup, but can be easily reversed for a falling wedge buy setup. The wedge formation is typically a reversal pattern, meaning that the trend within the wedge itself will reverse when the trend breaks, although it can serve as a continuation pattern if the trend is new. For the purposes here, however, it will be discussed in terms of a reversal, with a rising wedge viewed in terms of a break lower and a falling wedge breaking higher.

Criteria: Uptrend with higher highs that break by a lesser degree than before, while the higher lows are still separated by greater differences in price, creating a triangle that slants higher when the upper and lower trend lines are drawn.

Entry: When the lower trend line breaks. Alternate entries are when the last uptrend within the wedge breaks lower or drop down to a smaller time frame and watch for a 2T or Avalanche and utilize those entry criteria.

Stop: Over the highs of the rising wedge, or over the highs of the base on an Avalanche formation if the wedge begins to hug the lower trend line after pulling off the highs before breaking lower.

Target: The target on the wedge depends on where it occurs in the larger trend. The main support levels in a rising wedge will be at each of the pivot lows within the wedge itself. When a downtrend is new and the rising wedge is a continuation pattern, then an equal move out of the wedge as compared to the drop into the wedge is the larger target.




Ideal 5 Tech Tools Traits:

Pace: Above average pace heading into the start of the wedge, followed by a slower trend for the wedge itself. In the case of a rising wedge this means a strong drop lower, followed by a slower rising wedge. Within the wedge itself it helps if the pace slows on the upside as the wedge nears completion. The best circumstance is when the security pulls strongly back into the lower trend channel from the wedge and then hugs that support just prior to breaking down out of the rising wedge. The reverse applies to a falling wedge.

Volume: The volume will ideally increase heading into the start of a rising wedge formation and then decline as the wedge progresses. If the wedge hugs the lower trend line from the move higher just before breaking, then that volume should be the lightest of the entire wedge.

Correction Periods: Higher changes for success when the highs of the wedge correspond to a correction period or the trigger for the wedge corresponds to a correction period.

Support/Resistance: In a rising wedge, it is good to have strong upside resistance, followed by a pullback to the lower trend line. The security then has higher odds for a strong follow through when it hugs that lower trend support just prior to breaking down. A lack of significant support, such as a previous low or congestion zone that would hit right away will also increase the odds for a successful move.

Trend Placement/Trend Development: A rising wedge is common in a downtrend as a correction within that larger bear move. It can also be located at highs as the last move up within a larger uptrend before a larger correction off highs takes place. A rising wedge is higher risk as a short setup when it occurs at the beginning of a new uptrend, since momentum can be building and any break lower at that point out of the rising wedge can easily be just a small base before the wedge then breaks to new highs.

Rising Wedge Examples

Example #1: Occidental Pet. Corp. (OXY) Rising Wedge – A Short Setup




Pros on Rising Wedge in OXY:

1. OXY made only slightly higher highs, but significantly higher lows as it rose, creating a narrowing channel for the wedge formation.

2. After taking only 15 minutes to drop off the 10:30 ET highs, it then took three hours to return to that level.

3. The prices from the start of the 10:30 ET decline created a strong price resistance level.

4. Volume was the strongest at the start of the rising wedge and then declined throughout most of the upside move.

5. The rising wedge had three waves of upside within it, which is typical of an exhausted uptrend, making is easier for the stock to form a larger correction on a pullback following the third waves of buying that took place coming out of 13:00 ET.

6. The third move higher was much choppier than the prior two and began to hug the lower trend line and test it repeatedly while starting to avoid the upper end of the channel.

7. Volume increased as the wedge broke lower, providing confirmation to the setup.

Cons on Rising Wedge in OXY:

1. The move out of the rising wedge did not correspond directly to any correction period even though the 14:00 ET one was approaching.

2. OXY is a more volatile stock with a lot of overlap from bar to bar which created a somewhat larger stop since a trader could not drop down and short an Avalanche on a smaller time frame as the trigger to the wedge breakdown.

Example #2: ES Rising Wedge Pattern Intraday – A Short Setup




Pros on 2 Minute Rising Wedge in the ES:

1. The large momentum heading into the wedge was on the downside. It then took 90 minutes to just regain the losses from the gap and immediate selling out of the open.

2. The rising wedge had three waves of buying in it, which is typical for a trend development, creating an exhausted trend before the wedge broke lower.

3. The volume decline throughout the rising wedge and did not increase at all coming out of the last pullback into 10:45 ET, indicating that despite the strong upside, there were not a lot of determined buyers present.

4. The second high in the wedge was only slightly higher than the first and the third high was comparable to the second, whereas each low was significantly higher than the last.

5. The final pivot high within the wedge took place heading into the 11:00 ET correction period.

6. As the wedge hugged the lower trend line leading into the second setup, the volume declined even further, despite the correction to the selling into 11:00.

7. The pace of the moves out of 11:00 and then along the lower trend line indicated a bearish bias since the upside was much weaker than the downside.

Cons on 2 Minute Rising Wedge in the ES:

1. The momentum within the wedge did not slow on the upside until the stock had already traded under the lower trend line, so those taking a trend line break as an entry would have had to have sat on the position for awhile before the stronger selling continued.

2. Volume did not increase much on the selling coming out of the wedge to provide strong confirmation for the breakdown.

Ber blulFFuktard

How Much Money did We Recycle Last Week?
It's not easy to be a $%@*#$! Green Tard

Bear-bull-tard? vs Recycled Money?

Here are some new Words for your Webster.

I was inspired by Tim Knight's bolg Slope of Hope with the word "bultard "to help describe the state of the markets in the past month. Well of course, I felt like this new lexicon needed some friends. So here they are.


Ber-bul: .....little fuzzy creature .....chases anything green.
..looks a little like a gerbil on a wheel..

Ber-bul-tard: bear/bull/trader....a personal mental and emotional state of
utter dumb SH*#$!!.


Ber-bul-tarded: the feeling of what the Hell just happened?


Ber-bul-fun-tarded....the act of staying at the party to long and can't find the bathroom.


Ber-bul-fre-tarded: ......the act of ..Throwing a free beer, all you can drink party....and charging $20 to use the toilet....it's a little hard on the carpet, but it's a great way to get your emptys refilled....


Ber-bul-stop-tard....Refilling beer bottles sure keeps the bar tab under control.


Ber-bul- tech-tard:......Success is the divergence of Refills vs Flushes


Ber-bul-gre-tarded: the act of showing up.


Bul-tard: wishing to get up off the floor.


Ber-tard: hoping no one will step on your fingers.

_________________________


And the Grand Daddy of all.

Ber-blu-tard: waking up on the floor with empty refills in both hands
and f!eeling like a Ber-bul-fuk-tard.



Cheer up! You helped the economy by recycling your money...
So, dose this make us ..........Green-tards?



We all have to get back to work first thing Tuesday ...oh my....

neboxian.blogspot.com

Seven

Whatever the trader makes most important will become the focus of insecurity.
Be willing to give up a loss and the gain will be greater.
There is never fear of loss of the unimportant.

The Seventh Market Trader Tao

"The wise trader should not dwell in the extremes of the market movements.
Success comes from flowing with the greater trend and not focusing on the distraction
the smaller reversals."

NeboXian

Miss South Carolina answers a question

Take her to the Bridge! She's in goo company.
It's no worse than the Markets lately

MTW

Expect price to move down to yellow 

range before reversing toward $85-90

Dose anyone have Questions?

Are you prepared for the answer? Remember in the market all answers are final.In hindsight it looks easy...oh ya ...no matter the answer....you still have to pay up.

FXI

Notice the extreme over drive on the bollinger bands 

the first  indicator of reversal ....

the  macd and the ema  need a  1/2 day to catch up  with the price..

Expect a down  gap and then a floater for the rest of the day. 

FXI / FCX comparison

This is a relative % comparison of FCX and FXI ......

notice how closely they follow each other...

.I'll use this to get a picture of where the Mountains and valleys 

are ...."the wise trader works in the shadow of the mountain"....

..it's looking like we are 1/3 the way down....

if your trading shorts or puts your 

best money will be made in the next 1/3 down....

.don't try to ride this in to the valley......

.the thorns and rocks will tear you up.  

FXI : God almighty..how do I trade this?

Electronic traded fund based on Chinese Stock This stock is a very hard issue to trade ...The first consideration is the time zones china is closing when the USA is opening ....this is good because you can get a good idea where the ETF is going to go before the USA market opens...

Great Question ... Onohay.....I'll see if I can help you out....first of all this etf follows the FXC and $spx very closely.Run your comparison based on % of change.... also if your day
trading this issue, don't hold over night or weekends .....don't make any
decisions until about 90 Min's after open.....trade with the 2day
trend ...follow the 4Ema with the 10/20 Ema as the buy sell range.this
stock has a wide trade range. Use bollinger bands the price action is over driving
the channel on corners (tops and bottoms) ...if you want to just buy
and hold this stock the trend avg is $134.5 (+/- $16.50 deviation.).....the long
trend is up on avg of + .50c a trade day...just wait until price
moves back to the center around 134 down to 120 it well get there just give it a few more
weeks. then buy in at the 120 to 130 range .....if your already in ,
I'll say price is moving to the lower range for the next 2-3-
weeks ......Hope this helps.........Questions?

Neboxian

FCX

This FCX chart is developing a Head & shoulders Pattern. If price drops to 82.50 expect a surge down to 74 - 78 range be fore a bounce to higher levels . The long term trend (5 year)looks to be 95 - 100 by Nov/Dec 2007......keep your powder dry and wait for the bounce....will be last chance to buy cheap. You will also notice the classic Island reversal pattern...

For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.prophet.net/

The Procter & Gamble Company

The Procter & Gamble Company

P&G a solid safe haven ....if this credit stuff with the banks continues
to stay in the news P&G will keep moving up..$68-70.++

The volume has gone from 5 million up to 15-20 million over the past 4
months . This means the big boys are moving to the safe haven
stocks like P&G. All the activity will drive the price up over the next few
months...

This is a good place to jump in.now..and take a ride up the elevator.

However, once things settle down next year, you can expect the

price to float back down toward these current levels ....

People will start leaving for better growth stocks.

When the selling starts there will be fewer and
fewer buyers for a while because the buyers who are left take

advantage of this and offer to buy at lower price....

To answer Jonsey and Roberts question of huge drops in price..

Back in 2000 we had a major tech bubble ..Big HEDGE funds and brokerage

houses were borrowing money to buy more tech stock.

They were using stock of companies like the P&G's
as collateral .....so ...when the $150 Palm Pilot stock dropped to
$5......the banks called the loans in and forced the big boys to
sell the perfectly good P&G type stocks to cover the loss of equity.

This is an immediate sale at any price they can get..RIGHT NOW!..

.So a perfectly good stock like P&G is sold off at
half price to cover a BAD Debt....kinda like every one in the
neighborhood flushing the toilets all at the same time. The sewer
backs up for a while.

Although it is a little unnerving, the good ones recover very quickly 3-6 Months.

This is what just happened over the past two weeks in the mortgage credit industry..

Give the market time to drain the swamp and thing will be back to normal in a few months....but if
you got cash this is the time to buy.There are an abundance of solid
companies you can pic up cheap...cheap ..cheap....questions?

Neboxian

Commentary four

"When Nothing becomes visible an Idea is revealed".

NeboXian

This thought embodies the concept of creation and intelligent design.
That which is seen exists because of that which is not seen..

A great company begins as nothing (no thing) but with an idea. Through recognition of a need (not seen), the evolution of events and decisions by the creator(intelligent), a deign is born (seen).

Once the idea has life and physical form, this new symbol of hope is thrown in to life's Calderon and the concept of social and economic Darwinism comes in to play....the new idea must find a way to survive, adapt and become accepted by the world.

The new idea has a very long way to go before it can be come a worthy investment opportunity and offered to the public as a share of stock.
Most ideas must have a driving force and a committed creator to survive the very long development process.

Many times the Idea is good but the creator doesn't have the confidence, willpower or resources to follow through . The idea will either be abandoned to die or another believer will step in to help. These are called Angles.

It takes much more than money for this new infant to survive...but with out sufficient capital chances are slim.

This is where the first internal battle begins and can become a huge distraction.

The creator is the visionary and artist or technocrat of the big idea. He quickly begins to make the false equation of running the business and maintaining control with administrating the every day activities required to grow the arms and legs of the distribution process....

The crucial part of any success is learning your true passion and recognising there are others who are passionate about the things you are not.....the willingness to let "it" go to others who can do "it" better is the key to success.....

Three words come into play here are inclusion, involvement, commitment and , oh yes, we can't forget the very very very most important word is communication...Once this is mastered, even a mediocre idea can be successful....

I happen to believe that if God created the world, then the Devil is in the administration department.and pastors were sent to reconcile the two...

The giving up of control in areas of life can be very liberating...it can allow you to grow your passion.


We all desire to do the best we can . We become the best we can be by helping and allowing others to be the best they can be.

Basically people come in Three flavors

1. Artist...visionaries.....Cheerleaders ...Band ..
2. Counselors....coach .....trainers
3. Actionaries... doers .....players.... ticket, popcorn and hot dog vendors.....

Put it all together.....you got a High School Football Game....
______________________________________________________

The Fourth Constant Market Trader Tao

If you want to have more of life .....be willing to accept a loss and give it away emotionally..

"The Market will Always Reverse Direction. The trader will always lose
money.
Therefore, the wise trader always determines the limits of loss before the
reversal arrives."

NeboXian

Traveling Wilburys - End Of The Line

These Guys Sum it up Just Right

SIX

Valley Girls and Mountain Men


There will always be valleys.

The trade depends on the correction.

The wise trader waits in the shadow of the mountain.



Valley floors are dimly lit and only seem to be there.
The spirit of the valley remains.



All flows to the valley, yet never fills.

Mountains fade but valleys are eternal.



If mountains are so Bold , why are valleys so accepting?
If mountains are so inviting, why are valleys so feared?
If Mountains are life, why are valleys death?
If mountains are danger, why are valleys safe and peaceful?

Why is it, those in the valleys long to be on the mountain
and those on the mountain long to be in the valleys?

Mountains are impatient for their day are numbered.
Valleys wait patiently for the mountains to send their bounty.


The Sixth Market Trader Tao

"Mountains become valleys and valleys will be
mountains.

The wise trader sees the shadows , feels the wind and
hears the water.

The top cannot be seen from the bottom nor the bottom
from the top, yet they are."

Neboxian

FIVE

Avoid The Wipe Out!

The market is indifferent to all.

As the moon is to the Ocean, so is the market to the trade.

The wise trader is indifferent to the trade.

As the tide is to a sand castle , each trade is as a straw dog.



Market sectors are as oceans, each with their own kind.

Rise and fall of a wave, as a clock in time.

Space between the waves are as sleeping volcano's.

Compressing down yet building up.


The Fifth Constant Market Trader Tao

"Large waves require patience and commitment.
Medium waves expect endurance and strength.
Small waves demand attention and agility.

When searching for starfish in the tide waves, A wise trader always
knows where the big waves are."

Neboxian



T
th

Commentary 3

Learning the fundamental and technical aspects of the market is a matter of applying oneself and acquiring the language of the market. Consider a trip to China. You'll need to learn the language.

The technicals can be learned and mastered in a reasonable amount of time.

"The hardest thing to learn is control of our nature.
The desire to have more must be disciplined by knowing when the cup is full.

The easy part is the knowing when to act .

The hardest part is to act on this knowledge"
NeboXian

....The Single emotion in human nature hardest to ignore and easiest to manage is Fear.

The fear of failure.

The fear of pain.

The fear of rejection.

The fear of loss....

To take the idea of wandering through life, trying to avoid everything we are afraid of, seems impossible...


The opposite side of the same emotion is desire...the desire to have that which we love, want or need.

These two Emotional drives have started wars and conquered nations. Desire and fear have caused people to steal, argue and fight with those whom the possibility of a favorable outcome would , by others, be perceived as astronomical ...

While there are many tangents and manifestations of these basic emotional states , fear and desire , let's keep it simple for now. They are in fact rather generic terms.

There is also a third behavior. The act of staying to long...holding on and not letting go...choice ...free will....to do or not to do....we'll just call it Greed.

The word "greed" has a negative bias which denotes irrational behavior while the word "passion" portrays a more positive motive and may be a good substitute. At this point ,we are going to learn to manage our fear ,so the word greed works better.

While the degree of Fear and desire provide the emotional momentum to propel us to to a certain behavior, it's greed which produces the inertia to hold us in our position.

Most times our Desires lead us into a potentially dangerous situation which looks safe in the beginning or we wouldn't have entered in the first place.....we are creatures of resistance and support....once our desires overcome our natural resistance, we will enter the new position and use that point of reference as a sense of support... now we are comfortable and as with any dangerous activity it all boils down to your planning. When things start to become unstable , it is very important to have a predetermined safety plan. The decision is made in advance to execute the plan when the environment reaches the preplanned limits.

When you recognise the warning signs and ignore the plan, you are making a choice which is biased by the desire to be right . We begin to experience greed. Now greed will override rational thinking and the only thing which makes us snap out of "it" is FEAR... Suddenly, you realise things are turning very bad. Panic setts in, and more bad choices are made . The safety plan is no longer relevant because the situation is beyond the possibility of a favorable outcome. The technical name for this is Risk Management.

It's all about the things we either don't know or chose to ignore which get traders in trouble. Many traders will argue this point and try to rationalise all this as a Gut Feeling. Until a trader has had some long term experience, he cannot afford to have Gut Feelings. As a rule, if a trader is having "gut feelings " is because he feels something . The odds are, it's either fear or greed... and by then it's to late. .Good planning and staying with the plan will keep the trader out of these emotional account killers...

The Goal of Market Trader Tao is to Guide those ,who want to become more
successful, along a path to understand how to Manage the emotional response
toward the volatility and uncertainty of the trade.

This is not a religious or spiritual blog site but we cannot help but recognise we are spiritual beings having a human experience.

We are all HARDWIRED to believe there is more to the things we cannot see than what we can see. The methods I use are both esoteric and functional.

How is The Market trader Tao used?

The Market Trader Tao lessons are exercises in thought.

Most lessons are only a dozen lines and take a few minutes to read ,but for
some , a life time to learn.

A page of the Market Trader Tao is a tool to invoke reflection and focus.

The more you consider it and apply your personal experience to the passages , the closer you come to see yourself at your level of life. This is a way to train and gain a trust of your subconscious thought.
Have you looked into a holographic picture? The longer you look the more of the picture takes shape. Some of the best ones have images within the images. I'll at times invest 2 or 3 days thinking about a single page. I take notes ..and give my mind time to sort and compile ...and then write down and consolidate my impressions.

Our minds don't work well when asked to think in general terms ....the mind is more like a guided missile...the more specific the target the better...this the purpose of the Market Trader Tao....It's a mind tool to help pull your thought into a focus....the trader will discover these constant truths locked up in their life are reaffirmed through the study of Market Trader Tao....you will also find, most lessons will translate to all life experiences.


The first constant Market Trader Tao (way)


The Market exists to make Money...........for somebody.
The trader has the desire to make money .... for himself.


Therefore , the market exists for the trader to make money.



The Second constant Market Trader Tao

The Market will continue to preform the same as it always has.
The Market Trader fears the potential of loss.

Therefore, the trader can manage fear of market performance .



The Third Constant Market Trader Tao

The Market momentum will determine the trend direction.
The Trader is motivated by the the greater of desire or fear.

Therefore, the trader dose nothing when the trend direction cannot be seen.


The Fourth Constant Market Trader Tao

The Market will Always Reverse Direction.
The trader will always lose money.

Therefore, the trader always determines the limits of loss before the reversal arrives.

A final thought :

When faced with a choice of getting out a little to early or waiting to long to get out.
Ask yourself this Question.....which will make you feel worse at the end of the day?


Missing out on making more ?
or
Wishing you hadn't lost so much?

NeboXian

FOUR

Big BANG!

From nothing there is something.
We are pulled by the somethings and never consider the nothings.
Something is drawn from nothing yet, it is never empty.


Therefore,

Need inspires ideas...

Innovation generates commerce...

Sharing promotes cooperation.

One share is a Billion working together.

Untangle the knots to simplify vision and soften the glare.

Think of and travel the old ruts.

When nothing becomes visible ..... an idea is revealed.


Market Trader Tao

"A single share of stock is an Idea transformed from nothing into Money.

Stock Value is the product of a million events, ideas, opinions and
emotion."

NeboXian

THREE

It's All About The Loss

Do not place Gains as your primary goal

for there will be loss.

Emotional commitment to the trade

leads to quarrels with oneself.

Put away gains for they are easily lost

Cleverness turns to indecision and confusion

Greed leads to fear

Market Trader Tao

"Empty your desire and fill your pocket.

Weaken your ambition and strengthen the
trade.

Over think your action and your intellect will
interfere.

when faced with indecision and the path is not
seen.

If nothing is done ...All will be well."

NeboXian

Commentary lesson 1 and 2

The nature of a Stock is much like most thing in our universe.

A force of nature is something which will happen and there is nothing one can do but attempt to be on the right side of the movement.

A wild creature( like stock) really doesn't care if you exist until you grab hold of it (put money in) . Then and only then, do we truly begin to learn the nature of the thing. It has a way of holding your attention. We also begain to learn some new things about ourselves ...

Stock assumes a Nature just like all other living, breathing things.

A Stock is the monietization of Human Nature. You can witness the whole spectrum of human emotion...the two most extreme are desire and fear...Some times, Stock acts like a mighty Bison in a winter blizzard out on the open range ,completely oblivious to to the freezing wind and snow. Other times it's like a flock of a zillion pigeons ,spooked by every moving thing...

Most times , I think of tracking a particular species of stock much like I would hunt a Mountain Lion or Deer. To observe a potential Quarry , one must first decide what type of prey you want to track.

.. make a list

...where dose it range
....When dose it spawn
....what weather conditions are best
... is it heavily hunted
....is the population plentiful
...is it an ant or an elephant and what kind
....Are there maps of the terrain
....once you find your prey , what is your goal
....dose it migrate up and down the mountain or dose it stay in a territory
...what is the mode of capture and /or containment
..when do you want to make your catch
...in the valley
....going up the mountain
...on top
...or going back down
...how long are you to hold
....when are you going to release
....how much will be invested
.....how much return is expected
....what is the risk vs reward
....an I mentally and physically prepared for the journey

....sounds like a lot of stuff right?


I know what a Mountain Lion is and I also know it can be dangerous. Somehow, I have always known I should be afraid of this animal. Learning all I can allows me to Manage this fear to a very healthy respect for the Lion's potential.

Well if this is all bewildering to you, let's just go to the grocery store ....every one of these questions apply ....even if you are after a Box of water.

Oh...I see ...you would rather go fishing....what kind of fish...boat?pole?bate?
etc....Check the weather, almanac..fishing report news....season...limit..local fisherman tails
...are you gonna sell them , eat them or catch and release (that's called practice)

Now, let's use some common sense here. There are thousands of companies.

Where do you start?

Well first let's start with the point of view . There are at least 12 great companies in any category you pick. so.. walk through the house , office, mall, factory, restaurant or parking lot and pick two items in which you have an interest.
It is best to identify completely different market sectors ....make sure it is something you enjoy, like and something you could see your self devoting your life to..

WHAT? .....You say you want to invest your money into something you don't care about?
People who own and run companies devote a large portion of their life , time, education and money becoming an informed expert in their industry....Look.. Once you know your industry, you will feel free to move your money from one company to the next depending on the market conditions.

You will learn and know when the various herds of bison are in the valleys or moving up the mountains...you do know, they... uh.....won't stay in the mountains all season?


The herd will go down to the valley and stay there a while then migrate to the foothills. They will deal with a few range fires, get spooked by wolves and sometimes run back toward the valley. But, their nature eventually forces them to migrate back to the mountain...every single stock dose exactly the same thing to one degree or another..

There is one more thing you'll need to know.

....Money is made by someone in every market direction...this is important .

Let's say you buy a herd of buffalo.

..now your money will be made when the herd gets to the top of the mountain ...your going to sell them to someone who makes their money taking the herd back down to the valley.

so when do you want to buy the herd?
1 . going down?
2. in the valley
3. in the foot hills
4. at the top?
5. is it spring or winter?

.....this is called identifying the trend and getting on the right side of Nature (the trade)

....oh ya ...Did I mention there will be a helicopter waiting to take you down to a new valley of your choice so you can buy another herd to take up a other mountain....could be water Buffalo in China on this trip....next season it will be Buffalo in Wyoming....it doesn't matter. There is always a new herd ready to go up the mountain somewhere in the world.

you also discovered something about the nature of this type of creature....
1. it feeds it self
2. it reproduces by it self
3 .it protects it self
4. it knows how to survive weather , wolves and bad news ,
5. when the herd starts to move up the mountain.. IT WILL GO! up the mountain and it knows where it is going and how to get there.

....so what did you do?
....your job was to stay with the herd until you sell it to that guy on top!...

.we're not done
.
...you're going to meet some people alone the way up....some one's gonna tell you the herd is ugly, noisy and smelly... the next guy will notice the herd has stopped "it's just standing around eating grass and getting fat!.....then you run into some careless campers who start a grass fire and spooks the heard ......with all the smoke the news paper guy finds you and says "how will you ever get to the top at this rate ? Oh buy the way, did you hear about the buffalo trader who died last week? Aren't you concerned there won't be a market for your heard once you get to the top?"

Now your beginning to think, this Buffalo trip might be a bad idea..

The next morning a industry Analysis flys in and downgrades your heard because they don't think the winter coat growth is progressing well and mutters something about possible Stress on the Herd ......oh Boy!....you can feel the money pouring out of you pockets.....but you hang on....

Now what!...The herd is head'n the wrong way! It's heading for the river...


You turn on the radio...the Government Expert says "we had storms in the mountains... the rivers will be really really hiiiigh."...oh my God you think, the herd is going to drown!

Along the trail there's a sign posted on a tree. It says .....Old Mule Skinner in a shack by the falls....has gold for Buffalo .....you might talk him into tak'n that suicidal herd off your hands before they end up in the river.....it won't be as much as you paid but if they all drown ....then what will you have.?

"That river really looks scary", says the old Mule Skinner . "I can take em off yer hands now if yer like . I'll gve ya gold.....or if'n you don't want to sell ... I've seed this herd come through these parts fer the past 20 years. Fer a fee I ken tell the leed Bul to wate t'll the river git's down.....but that dosen't gar'ntee he'll list'n..."

Now it's late and your tired . What are you gona do now?
When you wake the next morning, the whole heard is gone! You run to the edge of the water and see the herd grazing in the sunshine on the other side!
As you cross the river, Mule Skinner hollers ," watch out! The wolves are in the big trees!"

The herd .....they knew exactly how to cross that river.....

So....what did all these other people know that you didn't? Well I'll tell ya .....Those people knew the chances were very good you didn't take time to learn the nature of the herd and they either tried to exploit your natural fear or inadvertently encouraged your natural insecurities.....

Market Trader Tao Says..... "A Trader goes about doing nothing when the boundaries cannot be seen.....thousands will say with out ceasing ...but the trader owns the results . "


NeboXian

TWO

Two Sides to Everything

We all see Prosperity as prosperity

only because

there is Poverty.

Therefore,

We all can know gain only because there is loss.

Markets Rally only after a fall.

Long and short contrast each other.

Cash and Credit compliment each other.

Risk and Reward arise together.

Greed retreats from Fear.

The Sell is the purpose of the Buy.

Market Trader Tao

"The Trader goes about doing nothing when the boundaries cannot be
seen.

Thousands will try to say without ceasing, yet only the
trader is left with the result .

Therefore,

It (the trade) lasts Forever.:

NeboXian

ONE

MT. NEBO

The Way of the the Markets are a mystery to most . It is always best to first establish a perspective and a Tao (a way) to look and approach such a vast entity.

Developing a perspective of a financial universe so large is akin to

counting the stars in the Milky Way ...So one must take a point of view....

"The universe will always do what it is doing now....

The stock market will always continue to do what it has done.

Nether care if you exist or care if you participate."

Yet,

The Universe, Solar System, and Earth exist for All to live....

Therefore,The Markets exist for All to make Money.

NeboXian

Your ability to make money in the markets is no more difficult than living on this gigantic planet in this enormous galaxy. You were born with all the programing to do both.....

But!

There are a few Physical laws we must understand .

Each Week We Shall go to the top of Mt. Nebo and visit the Oracle, "NeboXian"

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Trader Tao

Lesson 1:

"There are Thousands of Stocks , Thousands of Terms And
Thousands of Experts.

All designed for and desire to make Money yet desireless of your personal
participation.

in other words... it makes no difference to the
market if you're in or out, make money or lose .It doesn't care if it
knows your name or you know theirs.

Yet it exists for one single purpose......to make
someone MONEY

Herein lies the Pivot point the fulcrum if
you will...

For every dollar made, there is a dollar lost and for
every buyer, there is a seller.

These Two Spring from the the same source... "

NeboXian

and aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaeacYour ability Yway