Market TAO Tuesday 12-01-09

Topping Rectangle .....

Range Trading for the last 14 days.

A break above 1112 or below 1086 is what I'm looking for . Otherwise, the range is the trade zone.

If the current cycle continues, we should see a move down to the red oval in the next 3 days.

More Info on Topping Rectangles

visit this link http://thepatternsite.com/recttops.html



Overnight the es futures are up and the open SPY is a gap up....

My Spy plan is to buy the opening gap about 110.80 and run up to 111.10 - 50 and exit trade.....
this looks to be a potential trend day up so an attempt to fade the rally may not work...most times a strong rally day will close at the HOD ....keep an eye on the USD and XL's for divergence

Market TAO Friday 11-27-09

As I have mentioned in previous posts, the markets are looking for a catalysis to spark a sell off...

Thursday announcement of the Dubai Credit crisis has put the world markets in a state of extreme concern.

As I am writing this markets world wide hav sold off 3-4% overnight. Th US Dollar is at an all time high short interest at 94%. When the Us Markets open the morning I expect a major rush from the equity bulls and the Dollar Bears all running for the door at the same time.

There have been plenty of signals warning of this event and it now looks like we are looking into the abyss once again.

Above is a 15 min chart of ES SnP Futures I will be watching this very close at the open ....
As you can see it sold off substantially overnight. This will translate into a very large SPY gap down . I anticipate a bounce up into the yellow Fib retracement zone before a resumption of the sell off as you can see, there may be support at the red Zone .

My Spy plan today Is to Buy Spy Jan Puts on any bounce into the yellow zone ..Scale in on 3 buys 38% 50% and 62%..This may be a hold over the weekend play particularly if we break and close below the red zone.

A good Spy conversion rate is Spy 10 cents for every Es futures Point.

Thanksgiving 2006 US Dollar Collapse

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Ed Grimley Triangle Solo

Holiday Market Action

Turkey Cookie

Market TAO Wed 11-25-09

Cup and Handle with an inverted Head and Shoulders

Who's Got the Tab?......You!

Market TAO Monday 11-23-09

Lunar Cycles are 21 days the next phase will be on Dec 3rd....

Spx is beginning to show signs of topping.

Thanksgiving Holidays are usually bullish so be careful of reversal behavior.


My SPY plan today is to buy the gap and run up to 111.20 then reverse position to sell down to 109.00 or lower

Patiently Waiting for The Feast

Market TAO Friday 11-20-09

Market action today .....My best Guess.....

price will most likely retrace 38 to 50 % of yesterday and pin to the weekly Pivot into the close.....Spx 1090 to 94

my Spy plan today is to sell the rally up to 110.24 and exit at or below 109.14

I f ..it doesn't happen by European close, then I'm done for the week...

I was Early today...... The Same SPY Plan For Monday...... have a good weekend

Tues Wrap Triangle

Odds are we go higher out of this Triangle ....watch out for the false break outs..

Push for The Fib 50

The final assault!
Push for the fib 50 is underway....

Spx 1120-50 long term trend zone is the target this week. This will give us a spike shooting star candle

I must say this will be swift so don't fall in love with any direction.....take profit quickly.

I f the price holds and we get a open and close day above 1121 next week then the market moves higher....

or

price touch the fib 50 and reverses back to lower fib fan line.......notice how price has responded to the fib fan lines..

My Spy plan today is to buy down to spy 110.85 the opening gap and ride the run up until it stops going up 111.70 up to 113.85... .

Market TAO Tues 11-17-09

Overnight Es futures are down and the US Dollar is a bit up........

Spy is at a key inflection area....if we remain above 1100 then we most likely go higher ..this is options expiration week and historically the week has been bullish .....My SPy plan today is to approach the open with a neutral stance and wait 30 min's ... Will update after open

TGIF the Bar is Open

Market TAO Friday 11-13-09

Reports due this AM .....US dollar is steady ...My Spy plan is to sell up to 109.75 and exit at or below 108.07

Ascending Broadening Wedge

Works much like a Bearish rising Wedge...

A rising formation breaks out downward 70% of the
time.

For downward breakouts:
The lowest price in the formation is the minimum price move to expect.

For upward breakouts:
The formation height is added to the breakout
price.


Partial rise:

If a stock shows a partial rise and begins to head back toward
the lower trend line, consider selling short.

More info on Ascending Broadening Wedge http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html

SPY Evening Star

The Evening Star is a Reversal Candle Pattern.
This dotted yellow line and blue candle is what the next trading day should look like.

Blast Off

The fifth bear trap the bulls have laid since MARCH!

The Market makers are calling for 1120 buy end of the year .... after today's action It wouldn't surprise me to see it tomorrow..

After the poor Friday performance the bears gave. With a gift of 10.2% unemployment report, I don't think they have it in them to significantly push the market down more than 2 maybe 4 % max at any one time.....

The Bulls have the power via the FED to Gut the US Dollar at will and they have unlimited supply of Central bank cash to push this market higher..and the O'Man wants a weaker Dollar because it help the US Export Market......so it is a loser to be a bear for more than a few hours....So We make the Bull Penguin Fly!
It's not really a bull use your imagination

Ending Diagonal

Ending Diagonal SPX

The Market set up very nice for a reversal Monday with a terminating signal at the end of the C wave and the top of wave 2 with a potential of very nasty and long downward wave 3 to begin.

We could see a bit of an overthrow at the open to touch the top of the rising bear wedge ....stops should be placed above the resistance zone ....if it gets above there this is not an ABC retracement but a possible resumption of the larger up trend.


http://neboxian.blogspot.com/2008/08/triangle-reversal-pattern-part-3-of-3.html

Here is a Video I made on reversal triangles the Technical term for them is Ending Diagonal but I try to use more generic terms ...What is Important is to get an understanding of the basic concept.
http://neboxian.blogspot.com/2009/07/markit-tao-thurs-7-23-09.html
Here is an example of an ending diagonal Failure..... that's why I encourage stops.....if ED's fail they are very explosive... and if ED'S work they are as equally successful.....

Fall Montague

Fall Montague

Who is Really pushing this Market?

I was Talking to friends about this yesterday.....I have been trading over 30 years and never have I seen such Shenanigans played out as in this market ...

Article by : Chris Martenson ....very good read!


http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/market-recap-ridiculous-productivity/30966

Market TAO Friday 11-06- 09

OK... It's Game day! the bears had better show up today with a 10.2 unemployment rate ...If they don't,then they deserve to get it right up the A#$%$...!

Options Trading Stocks to Watch

These are great stocks to follow and day trade with options.
The open interest is very high which makes for easy execution.

When day trading the Delta and Implied volatility are the things to consider.
Deep in the money strike price will give a higher Delta.

I prefer a delta of 90 down to a minimum delta of 50.

That means if I select a Strike price with a Delta of 0.50 and the underlying stock moves $1 the option returns .50 cents times 100 shares. Another way to look at it is, I control 50% of 100 shares per option contract.

The Theta is your time component and comes into play when holding overnight, weekends and into expiration...Although I am in most trades for less than 2 hrs , I prefer to trade options with a minimum 30 days or more of Theta,,,for safety

GOOG
BIDU
RIMM
AAPL
AMZN
POT
MA
GS
WYNN
XOM
ISRG

Market Tao Thurs 11-05-09

Looks like the jobs report came in better than expected.

US dollar Down

Spy to open Gap up at 105.70

financial' s, teck , and industrial' s will lead the AM session


My SPY plan is to Buy the gap and run...... Spy gap fill down to 105.00 and exit above 106 up to 107

Shooting Star Candle Pattern

This is a Shooting Star Candle Pattern..

I would prefer to see them as a top reversal candle but this market activity has not been typical for over a year.

This has developed at the end of a down move over the last 12 days. It closed inside the downward channel and below the purple long term up trend line....so I am optimistic to further movement to the down side but approaching this with caution.

I would like to consider this as a continuation signal and see the Blue blocks develop in the next 2 days and continue lower next week. A break below 1040 and hold would be very bearish....

The 2nd possibility is a retracement up to the 50% Fib line

Bull Market Gone Bad

Based on my Analysis over the weekend the Weekly Charts of the Trans, SPX, Naz, and Dow are beginning to convince me we are definitely rolling over to the down side.....The markets are showing signs of weakness in all sectors and the US Dollar appears to be in the beginnings of a rebound........With all that , I am moving to a sell the rallys mode . I am still cautious of suprise up spikes... so for this week small size trade placement will stay in effect.....if spx remains below 1040 after Monday close I feel confident we will continue to further broader market weakness...