Market Trader Tao Day Trading The SPY

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

ProphetCharts: FXE

I will be taking profits on any high today... I am expecting a US
Dolllar Bounce to the up side from here....

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Monday, June 1, 2009

S&P futures are at the Jan High for a change of a double top...if price can break above 934 and hold the next target is 975...if price is rejected and falls below 930 we go back into last weeks trade range to as low as 875....also notice the MACD divergance developing

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Saturday, May 30, 2009

ProphetCharts: FXE

The Euro Dollar is chuggin along.....getting into target area ...expect the direction to change or reverse next week

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ProphetCharts: $SPX

This is a weekly chart of $SPX....Notice the Gravestone Doji followed by a Tall White Candle on the week of Jan 25 ,09 then again on the week of May 20 ,09......also the decending triangle.
Key Levels always get test befor the troops leave the battle field...check the 9 weeks down vs 9 weeks up symmetry as well..start at top of Jan to top of may ..an 18 week cycle top to top.....

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ProphetCharts: $SPX

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Friday, May 29, 2009

ProphetCharts: SPY

Wow.....Got it just right! see the previous chart on the weekend post...this was a very hard price action to day trade.....it just go's to show if you plan out ahead and take a good entry with a proper stop.....place the trade and hold your nose.....it is very hard to do even for the most experienced traders.....I try to stick to the plan because almost avery time I deviate or or become impulsive....it cost money ...and I end up unhappy with my self. mY best work comes when I take a core position of 50% of my trade commitment and make my best entry...the balance i use to trade the swings during the day...I'll post a new game plan for next week on sunday

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Day trade Journal 5-29-09 Friday

10:30 am etwe opened with a small gap up then a run up to 91.70 the secondary descending trend line...price moved back down to 9080 then rallied back to and tested high.... Xls are testing top of their ranges and the Tick is leaning to the bull side with one quik tick above +800.... looks like we hover here a while....volume is dropping off ......
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1045 am et ....Index's are felling back into yesterday ranges..... but sell volume is not really there.
tick is making lower highs but none greater than -800...
es futures is holding 910.........

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1100 et ...energi looks to be the only thing above the trade range...all the indexes are testing the move back down in to range as well....

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1145 et Indexes are at or below close and below Vwap spy is holding better than other three qqqq is leading down ....there is not alot of real selling pressure follow thru ....
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1234et....every thing i see is screaming to me, sell.....but the tick is stuck leaning on its bull side....
markets are thin and volume is low on this last little rally ....telling me bear flag .....but we need to see some selling pressure in the after noon session.....hard to say what we get for now...
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2:00 et....spy has tested and fallen back down through yesterdays trade range 3 times looks like there may be an evening star pattern building on the 30 min chart.....it is rare that spy dosen't tag the daily pivot line at least once in a session....
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4:05 et .....spy.... Whoa.....didn't see that huge short covering spike coming in last 10min's...
it looks like every short in the world was running for the big glowing exit sign.......I put on a nice
put play near the top of the spike 1 min bfor the close....these end of month day spikes nearly always gap down come monday and retest fridays range ....but just in case i got my stop in too...

have a good weekend...!

Pre Market TAO 5-29-09 Friday

The Daily TAO is Green...... Over night the world got Bullish .....world stocks r up....gold is up......oil is up......yields r down ....the dollar is just tanking........

The S&P Futures are running up to the Wednesday high of 914 and could touch the the 919 before the turn back down........the SPY will most likely gap up on the open to 91.75 .....I will sell the high of the first 30 mins .....and exit at the daily pivot zone 90.60 ish
The pending economic releases this am ......Chicago Pmi at 8:30.... prelim GDP ......Mich sentiment at 9.55 et....may make the wheels spin an extra 30 min's before the market get traction....

Thursday, May 28, 2009

ProphetCharts: UNG

Ok....if you missed the Buss on UNG ...it looks like a pull back to 14.50 -14.25 would be a good place to jump in.....it would be the last low risk entry on this lift....

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ProphetCharts: ESM9

This is a Daily of the S&P E-Mini 500....The Futures market trades Globaly 24 hrs........
Looks to me like the Bears are in a line Up for some Porage..... Or will Goldie Bull trample the picknic?
Something is gona give .....I think the Oil market is ready to break down ....and Bond Yields are going to push the market down....

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Day Trade Journal 5-28-09

10:23 am e t......so far trade is going as planed ......sitting at 89.40 building a contiuation bear flag ...looks like more down
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10:26: well below yesterday range with retest ....looking to break current low in a few min's

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1045 am.....bulls putting up a fight here moved back into range ...but no +750 yet

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1130 am .....got a non comfermation reversal .ad broke hard back in to range hugging the 90.32 for now

didnt cover back when i should have at 89.25...........but looks like we ma have a swing back down net tick is back to zero .......i just get mad at my self when i dont stick with the plan .....it always delivers pain.......

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1152 am......here is a good lesson...... when you file a plan stay with it.....because the trading gods winn punish you ........we gave it all back......so far.....
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2 pm price pulled back down to 89.75 and i covered ......

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3:07pm looking to a final hour sell off short at 91 .16 with stop just above 91.30
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4oopm ....wow what a whip of a day ! held position over nite we look to be at the top of this range and we closed at the s&P futures key resistance area of 905 ....we'll see in am how it dose
the gap was up to day expect gap to be down in am........
made some $$$$ today but i violated my trade plan buy not covering when i should have....
so i feel like i fought it all day......and dont feel like i did any good.......these markets are moving so fast if i step away to use the bath room it can take off .... .....ok it was an ok day ...so ill stop banging myself on the head...

ProphetCharts: SPY

Per Market TAO......Chart SPY .....looks to be an open to touch the pivot in the first 30 min's ...then we expect a reversal...
todays TAO is RED

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ProphetCharts: UNG

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Pre Market TAO 5-28-09 Thursday

Today's TAO is RED
Overnight Asia did ok overall a up day ..... European markets look flat range bound.....The dollar got a 100 pip bounce up and could range 80 to 81.5 till Monday.....the overnight S&P futures look like it is putting in a bear flag and is breaking down.....we could see a small gap up at the open in the SPY.... I am still following the N vs N chart I posted over the weekend and it looks like this last 2 days are ( 1.5 days up and .5 day down) ...we need a full day follow through today to the down side to complete this series of cycles...so the Bears need to get busy.....

A few other things to watch today ....
The XLF and XLE are at the apex of a symmetrical triangle on the 30 day 30 min .............and UNG looks very interesting as well....

ok back to spy.....if we gap up and run up, my plan is to short the spy at the high in first 30 min's with a first target of yesterdays range low 89.50 , 2nd tgt 89.25 , 3rd 88.20.........
.....if we open even to flat we will go with the directional bias after the first 30 min's

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Day trade Journal Wed 5-27-09

10:12.... First 30 min went as expected looks like a range with a pole to pole swing of tick
-1000 to +1000 ......and now at zero ......price spiked above Tuesdays high and was rejected quickly back into yesterdays range.........looks like a range of 90.95 up to 91.60 for now.
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10:35 ...could have an ascending triangle on spy ....we have flat top and higher lows 5 min chart..
watch for another bounce at 91.01 ish ...got another +800 tick.... look for a firming up as the am moves forward...
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10:55 ...Tick si leaning to bullish ....we are on 45 min cycles low to low look for next bounce @ 11:30am et... at 91.13 this would a good buy point with stop just below 90.92
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2:pm et......price tagged the top of day range and quickly retreated back down to Tuesday range never gave me a entry opportunity......broke down thru trend line and is now resting on the 5o%fib......along with a-900 and -1160 neg tick........ we'll see if the fiddy holds...
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2:15 et ...brok tru 50 fib..and retested took short trade at 90.40 with stop just above 50% fib
target is yesterday pivot line 89.90

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2:27 ....closed short trade @ 89.90 thats .50 cents .......good trade...we risked .20 cent to make .50 cent thats 2 1/2 to 1 ratio....
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Pre Market TAO 5-27-09

After yesterdays huge climb, we can expect a bit of a rest ...todays TAO is Green.. market will most likely open near to yesterday close.. we should remain bullish but wait for the pullback ..... today may be a range bound day digesting yesterdays gain...... watch for10am mortgage apps report

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

The first 30 min's is Key

In the first 30 minutes the market is going through a price correcting and balance phase. This comes from the rollover of activity during the night before ....after the US market closes, Asia , Australia , and Europe are Trading throughout the night. This momentum is absorbed at the US market Open....Hence the gap will occur....there are several possibilities once the gap presents it self...
1. Gap opens within previous days trading range.
2. Gap opens above previous days range.
3. Gap opens below previous days range.

First thing to watch for is the TEST... expect that Price will always test the Support/resistance closest to where the gap opened........will it pass through or be rejected?

Here is where the NYSE Tick comes into play. The tick records the cumulative buying and selling each minute ...if above zero , there are more buyers than sellers .....if below zero there are more sellers than buyers.........

with the Tick there are significant ranges

- 500 to + 500 indicates a neutral bias
-750 to + 750 indicates a bearish or bullish bias and leans to a range bound price action.
greater than -800 or + 800 indicates a trending bias......up or down.

Volume is the next thing to watch...

now volume is a real time relative measure of the number of shares traded....

the key observation to make is how volume moves in relation to price movement.
(try to visualize driving a car and volume is the gas peddle)

1. volume moving up, more gas / price moving up the hill faster = buyers are in charge

2. volume moving up, more gas / price moving down the hill faster = sellers are in charge

3. volume moving down ,less gas / price moving up the hill slower = buyers are drying up

4. volume moving down , less gas / price moving down the hill slower = sellers are drying up

Let's pull the two above charts together.

min 1.... gap down below previous day lower range with big volume/ - 300 tick.

min 2 thru 7..... price is rejected from trend line and lower support zone...price is going up and relative volume is flat to rising ,tick is flat remaining around -300 area....

min 8 -10 .....price drops slightly with a volume spike , tick remains in -500 range (no big sellers)

min 9 - 18.... price rises with one test of lower support zone (long wick suggests strong buyers) with rising volume, tick moves above zero and up to +800 ( big buyers are moving with +800 blocks of shares per minute) also we have a rising 20 ma cross of 50ma ,, and 50 ma is rising above zero line....Potential to trend up

min 19-30.... price hugged up against pivot line (center line of daily trading range) with increasing to flat volume , tick continues to range above zero up to +800 .....Bullish

min 31...... gives us a buy signal with a break away and close above pivot and rise in volume along with a +800 tick.....

right here is the buy....with a stop just 3 points below the candle at 20 min's

ProphetCharts: SPY

WOW!.......what a fast Bounce today.......my analysis over the weekend, I neglected to draw in the lower purple assending line connecting the lower low and the higher low from 5-17 to 5-21....and i also missed the over nite low support bounce of the s&P futures which run 24 hrs globaly....had i done a better job here, we might have caught this bounce....that said, i still didn't think we would get a straight up rocket!...the bears didn't even put up a fight at the 89.25 pivot or the 90.00 friday top or the 50% fib...maybe we get a bit of a correction down to the 90.50 to 90.00 zone and jump on his rally up to the 92.00 target zone.....

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