Market TAO Tues 7-28-09

10:15 et am XL sectors are all turning down and US Dollar is starting to rally ....SPY moving to r1 and tick - 1000

Exit Spy Puts 9740


Here is chart of the QQQQ ETF
I traded today .

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I am long QQQQ 3914 strong tick + 900

Range day market this Am QQQQ 3900 to 3840.. sitting on lower "T" support tick is neutral to a bit bearish ,,

Big up spike in US Dollar ....this could be the catalyst to turn the overall market down..... my QQQQ play will stop out at 3880

I don't like Market action for this QQQQ long will exit on next up tick 3910 to upper teens ..sectors feel like they are ready to roll down.

nice up tick!.. i am out of QQQQ 3928

just went short QQQQ 3945

i will exit QQQQ on next tick down to 3920 ish

I am out of QQQQ 3929 ,,,,, that was 2 ok ScalpTrades today and a Spy PUT exit turned out to be a good day.

Market Tao Fri 7-24-09

ES Futures overnight did about what I expected and traded down toward the 950 to the Triangle Retracement ... It still has more to go to get there.

Spy Opened down and is trying to find balance and is now trending back down toward triangle support as well .


Nasdaq is selling off this am and is at the 10 day support trend line .


The XL'S are mixed

NYSE Tick is showing some selling pressure with - 1200 hits

With the addition of more Spy Put positions at yesterday high it looks like things are doing as expected.
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12:20 et pm..... Spy has reached what looks like the top of the Intraday Bear Flag at 9750
which has been building on decreasing volume and neutral to bearish NYSE Tick and has touched the 62% Fibonacci Retracement. I expect this next down leg will end around 9600 and I will be looking for the exit sign.
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1:05 et pm... Spy is breaking down slowly but the selling pressure has been light but steady.
Adding more Puts to the fire SPY 9740...
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Close .... This Market is amazing! The volume was dropping all day. The NYSE Tick was Bearish all day with no big buy ticks ...None ....Not One .....Nada! The tape was bearish from the get go
and we didn't even get a decent retracement started compared to the huge rocket propelled ride we have had....The Market continues to rise!

I Think the Day belongs to Billy- Bob Late to the Party Bulls (Amateurs) and the I-Bots.

The Biggest Problem I have with this latest rally 11 Days Parabolic, is if it goes up any straighter the charts will do a backwards Loop-D-Loop ..

All week long there was a plethora of huge gross revenue declines with very low expectations of any profits going into earning season. Every showcase company that is regularly touted before the public Beat The Street By a Penny or Two and the talking heads gasped in astonishment. The Government Reports are not much more reliable either. How is it, they all seem to have a feeling of being Fudged just enough to make them positive by .001%

Excuse me if I don't feel elated. I can't stand the oversell on the news shows try to feed us. This is all a little to orchestrated to me. I'm not a Perma Bear or Bull . I trade the market based on a blend of technical and fundamental analysis. As of lately, I really don't feel like we are getting a truthful picture of the nature of the economy or the corporate balance sheet.

OH ya... while I'm ranting and probably repeating myself here, the earnings reports continue to try and convince everyone things are getting better! Well you can't grow an economy on IBM government contracts , Obama jobs, Apple i-Phones and apps made in Asia, declining top line company revenues , depleting inventories, cutting jobs, raising taxes, printing currency to buy down debt or mandating everyone have health care.........AND! 550,000 job losses every month or week or what eaveeer. It doesn't matter what the number is, it's ...aheem... Less Bad......So that's Good?

Has any one caught on here? The only sector which hasn't participated in this huge surge, relatively speaking, are the Banks. I have two questions to ask here. Is the lack of interest based on the overall public sentiment or is it the banks (cough...GS, JPM, BAC) who have pushed this market around know something and have conveniently excluded themselves? They're definitely not buying each other, big tell, and they must report self purchase. These humongous pockets full of government money operations are the BUlls who push the market up and are or become the Bears when they think its time for the market to go down. This kind of duplicity is only eclipsed by the way they expanded and subsequently exploded the mortgage bubble. If your the one calling all the big moves it is easy to place oneself on the right side of the trade.

Did anyone notice that the USA was the largest consumer of China's products? So how is China going to save our economy? It's The copper play that will save us . But our Alaska And Arizona Mines have scaled back 50% ish . How about the teck play? That will for sure do it. We don't make the stuff. We buy it from them. Oh, then it has to be the Oil and energy play right? How dose oil pumped out othe ground in Brazil and shipped to china help the USA?
Well that's my long term view and really doesn't effect my day to day take on the market. Only the tape can guide us there...........Enuf pontification.

I made a nice profit exiting My Puts at 9685....
And I Am Short again Spy Puts going in to the weekend....... Average price 9790

Pre Market TAO Wed 07-22-09

ES Futures trading down overnight

Crude / Gold ....down

US Dollar UP

Asia flat

Euro Stks down

Earnings today WFC PFE GSK PEP LLY MO BK USB / bmo

QCOM ACL EBAY MOS TMX VMW TCK NE / amc


Spy Will open , 9450,

Have Put positions still in play.....
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Pre Market Tao Tues 7-21-09

ES traded up over night 954

Crude up
US Dollar flat
Asia / Euro stks up

Tape is bullish


Looks like Spy gaps up wet another day.

10:00 et am........Earnings are coming out better than expected but the bar was placed so low by the analysis's so I am not surprised.

The market gaped up at open and is now settling back down into yesterdays range..I am not a buyer up here but I am not a big seller either ....

I have not been impressed with the volume in this rally but I must respect the bullishness .
At this point I think the current lift of 10% is about out of steam but as long as the US Dollar is falling out every morning this will continue.

I still have on the Spy PUT I entered yesterday and added another at the open but it could all fall apart if the close is above this AM high. This market could take off to the up side quickly.

I expect a retracement back down to 9250 - 9150 zone before we turn and continue to the up side .....keep the stops up!

Neboxian's Day Trade Journal Mon 7-20-09

This looks like a good place to put some Spy Puts on .....9500 with stop above 9550.....ES Futures is selling off and the Xl's are all breaking down......

The Eaton Hal and Johnson reports were not good for the future guidance.

Top line Revenue continues to fall and just because they beat the street estimates doesn't mean that is is good in to the next quarter.

All the reports so far including the ones last week say the out look is foggy.
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12:50 et pm Not doing any big trading today mostly waiting for true market direction.... I don't think there will be much until aapl and cat report.

Pre Market TAO Mon 7-20-09

ES Futures traded up to 944.78 over night and is now back 942.50

Crude / Gold up

US dollar down and sitting on a key support line it could be setting up for a bounce . It needs to because bounce below that support is an abyss.

Hal/ jci/ etn/ has earnings b/o
txn/ LM / Bsx ............ a/c


Cit may get bailed out?

Hal/ Jci earnings down Big! Hasbro toys profit is up

Congress is now looking to a Rent to Own program to support the housing recovery.

Tyson and Sanderson just got cut down a notch.

Asia / Europe up

Spy looks to open flat to up

Today I am Neutral to Bearish ..........will watch first 30 min's

[tags]day trading Journal, hal,jci,etn,txn,lm,bsx,rent to own,tyson,sanderson,cti[/tags]

Head & Shoulders Fri 7-17-09... It Aint over Till it's Over the Head

SPY Daily

I know, we are all sick of IT!

BUT...

The upward sloping complex Head and Shoulders pattern tag is still in play as well as the MACD divergence. This is a Daily chart of SPY.

I believe the structure begins at the apex of the triangle on the left (the apex is the net retracement of a triangle pattern). Typical support is at the bottom of the first shoulder but this has not been a typical market.
Almost every pattern has been driven to extremes or doesn't follow through at all.

The robust nature of this last rally is no exception.

One would think if this is a failure of the pattern the volume would be through the roof! But this week volume was very low.

I think this was a brute force push by the big trading houses.

There have even been reports of short position blocking, tape manipulation, and forced short ticket cancellations from the guys at Zero Hedge.............

And the earnings reports continue to try and convince everyone that things are getting better! Well you can't grow an economy on IBM government contracts , Obama jobs, Apple iPhones and apps made in Asia, declining top line company revenues , depleting inventories, cutting jobs, raising taxes, printing currency to buy down debt or mandating everyone have health care.........OH ya ....Did anyone notice that the USA was the largest consumer of China's products? So how is China going to save our economy? Well that's my long term view and really doesn't effect my day to day take on the market. Only the tape can guide us there...........Enuf Ranting.

The pattern is now at the top of the 2nd right shoulder and the trade count is 25 days peak to peak from the head to the right and left side.

The valley count is 31 trade days from the apex to the center line of the head.
As you can see there is time left, 5 trading days to move back to the lower neck line.....

The candle pattern at the top of the right shoulder is two opposing dragonfly doji's which indicates an indecision in the market.

Based on this analysis I am more comfortable short , with a stop above the high of the head, than long. Next week the market could go to 1000 as easy as 800 so stay on your toes and keep your dukes up!

For more on head and shoulders , John Lansing has a great analysis as well as John Murphy

[tags][/tags]

Evening Star Candle Pattern

Spy 30 min chart

After a huge rally over the past 4 days it can take more than one reversal candle pattern to turn thing around..

Here there 3 patterns.


1 . Evening Star to stop the rally and send it sideways.

2. An Engulfing red candle to hold it down.

3. a Hammer with a red Dark cloud cover to knock it out!

All rapped up in a Keltner Channel
notice the extreme deviation of the evening star followed by the piercing and rejection of the hammer wick on the upper channel line.

As a day trade approach, candle formations are only reliable for 7 to 16 candles after the formation develops and it is necessary to remain on the same time frame. This one is a 30 min candle pattern