Ag Chems Are on the Move

TNH Terra Nitrogen Asymmetrical Triangle long trade is good for $4 up to D and then $4 down to E then I expect to see break to the up side for $8 more ....By Feb 2110

International Markets are Weakening

This Asymmetrical Triangle Tracked out perfectly and broke down.

Lower Highs and Lower lows....Th real test will be to crack the horizontal support line below this level.

Some ask me if I think the Candle Wicks are significant to drawing pattern trend lines and I think the wicks tell us a lot about the sentiment of the day but it is the close that really counts.

The softening of the International Markets only supports the last 3 oil field charts I posted..

I expect a retest of the rising trend line first .

Another possibility is, this is the "c" wave of a long Descending Triangle with an apex at mid Febuary 2010

Triangle Top SPX 10-1-09

Asymmetrical Triangles Don't usually form as the final wave of a Top. They are typically a wave 4 formation.

This Triangle is not complete ....but if this plays out over the next two days This suggests we could see another leg up.


This formation at this top of a Bear Wedge could become very whippy .

I Don't intend to play the first break up or down. I expect both will be false.
The safest play here is to get long above SPX 1077 or short below SPX 1040... Otherwise trade the Spx 1045 to 1070 zone as a sideways trending channel.

The biggest thing we have been fighting here is Bi- Polar market data ... There are so many conflicting fundamental Data signals it will be difficult to see a clear direction until we see a clean break above 1082 or below 1040.

It is still easy for the media people to make a Bear or Bull case in either direction and this creates confusion.

The most reliable approach will be to take the position that the news and Data is already in the charts and stay with chart formation, pure technical and Elliot Wave analysis.

Market TAO Wed 9-24-09

Overnight ES traded in a tight range but after a positive jobs report we are trading above yesterday US market close.

The Past two swing trade setups were no great winners and with the bullishness in the market lately , i am a bit skeptical of this one . We will see how the AM session unfolds. I would rather be buying the dips.

The Asia and European markets have shown weakness and oil is down as well.
US dollar is flat

The Bond market is looking like it wants to break to the up side today. I'll be watching the TLT at the top of an Asymmetrical Triangle.

Pre Market Tao Thurs 08-27-09

ES E-mini Futures
Asymmetrical Triangle could break up or down. Triangles occur in the 4th wave of a 5 wave structure.
we could expect a break out to the up side to complete the final wave 5.
Buy above the 1038 or sell below 1018.. price is at Apex so we should see a break out this session.


Jobs and GDp report where not helpful in defining direction.

Asia was weak Europe was soft
The US Dollar is holding steady

News tape is modestly biased Bullish
Bond Auction at 1pm est .
so far open looks like a yawner.

NeboXian's Butterfly Chart Pattern

Spx chart

Seriously, I have never heard of or found a butterfly pattern in the books.
But it is interesting.

My take on this.
There is an asymmetrical triangle on the left and an expanding triangle on the right .

Bulkowski's sight explains expanding T's.
Both are continuation patterns but expanding T's can also be reversals.

The asymmetrical triangle on the left is a continuation to the up side.

The expanding triangle on the right looks to me like it could be a continuation to the up side or a reversal to the down side.

I don't really have a firm opinion here.
I just thought it was interesting and gave it a name NeboXian's Butterfly and wanted to share it with you.