Market Tao Thurs 11-05-09

Looks like the jobs report came in better than expected.

US dollar Down

Spy to open Gap up at 105.70

financial' s, teck , and industrial' s will lead the AM session


My SPY plan is to Buy the gap and run...... Spy gap fill down to 105.00 and exit above 106 up to 107

Shooting Star Candle Pattern

This is a Shooting Star Candle Pattern..

I would prefer to see them as a top reversal candle but this market activity has not been typical for over a year.

This has developed at the end of a down move over the last 12 days. It closed inside the downward channel and below the purple long term up trend line....so I am optimistic to further movement to the down side but approaching this with caution.

I would like to consider this as a continuation signal and see the Blue blocks develop in the next 2 days and continue lower next week. A break below 1040 and hold would be very bearish....

The 2nd possibility is a retracement up to the 50% Fib line

Bull Market Gone Bad

Based on my Analysis over the weekend the Weekly Charts of the Trans, SPX, Naz, and Dow are beginning to convince me we are definitely rolling over to the down side.....The markets are showing signs of weakness in all sectors and the US Dollar appears to be in the beginnings of a rebound........With all that , I am moving to a sell the rallys mode . I am still cautious of suprise up spikes... so for this week small size trade placement will stay in effect.....if spx remains below 1040 after Monday close I feel confident we will continue to further broader market weakness...

Happy Hallowen

Wile E. Coyote vs Road Runner

Spy is at 0:26 on this cartoon

Market Tao Fri 10-30-09

Last night my office was flooded so that put a kink in my morning.....

things are back to normal now ...sort of....

looks like plan red and yellow are working ......this is in the bounce zone now ........be ready for both directions.

GOODBYE PHILADELPHIA (MUSIC VIDEO)

Right now the world Series Phi vs NYY Game 2 is on and we are down 2 runs ......but I have faith the Phillies will carry the series....

Defense Friday

SPX.....We have 3 options for Defense Friday.



1...we sell off at the open... Red path
2...we sell off at the open and bounce and hover....yellow path
3....we rally at the open and hover

4... play Beatles Rock Band all day and let them use their money to sort this mess out....


I will take a look at the futures in AM and may be we have a better idea where we are headed.

GDP.....It's a Setup!.....For the Bulls!

We are seeing a series of higher highs......and higher lows.....that is still a Bullish trend.....Get Ready for the Bounce.....

Look at the chart I posted last night...

My Spy plan is to buy any dip at the open down to 104.14 and hang on for a 2% push today up to 106.20......

I'm feeling lucky today...the Phillies won last night!!!.

Possible Gap Bounce

Got it half today right.....Spx sold off...I didn't expect a super extended minute wave 5 down after the European close.....

I showed up expecting a fight with the bulls and they pulled a toilet plunger on me ...
They waved me off with a California Howdy( the Bird) and went back into the barn...

after that there was not a buyer in sight....

Classic Step aside bull tactic.. I have seen this movie many times....

I am expecting a small sell at the open then a bounce out of this gap fill spx 1040.50....
It could go as high as 1074.92 but I would be happy with 1060 up to 1060.50....

But...be prepared..if the gap bounce fails, there is nothing to stop the fall until 1020 to 1016.00

Market TAO Wed 10-28-09

Overnight it got very red out there....

Asia down
Europe down
Us Dollar down
Euro Dollar down ????
Gold down
Oil down
news tape bearish

Very hard to make a case for the Bulls particularly after my last post ......will the market magically levitate for the next 3 days? we will see signs after the durable goods and new home and oil supply after 10:30 et ...They are just gona have to spin this ... It's the End of the year for the Money Managers they got to pump this up in two days for Gods sake!....! or die!

spx is resting on 20day ma....

pivot daily
PP 106.60
S1 is 105.91- 87
pivot weekly s2 105.82

My Spy plan to day is to buy the Spy at the low after oil report 10:30 et ...spy 105.90 down to 105.63 ( stop placement 10 points below@ 105.50)and hold to the gap fill 108.30 ish

Money Manager End of Year Markup

Market shenanigans for next 3 days.

I expect price action over the next 3 days to appear to defy gravity.

This is the end of October and the end of the year for Money Managers.

Many will pull out all the stops to push up prices in an effort to use the higher looking performance even if it is only good until Friday close to claim the final print as their end of year return.

So I expect a early AM dip and the drive will begin and lasting relentlessly all day... and for Thursday the drive will continue until the end of the day ....for Friday Prices will appear to be frozen in space and time into the close........Monday will be release day...ie : sell sell sell.

I am expecting at least a 2% push....could go higher.

My Spy trade plan in the AM Oct 28 ,09 is to buy the low in the first 30 min's Spy Gap fill 106.00 down to 105.50 and hold until spy 107.79 up to 108.50 ....will do a premarket up date in AM

Market TAO Tues 10-27-09

Markets overnight are mixed .

Asia down
Europe up

waiting for home sales reports

Es futures flat

I expect a narrow range day .
there has been one penetration and one touch of the extreme Bollinger Band in the past two days on the 2 hr SPX chart suggesting a flatting out of price action for next 7-16 ....2 hr bars...

my plan today is to scale into spy up to 108 and exit at or below 106.50 down to touch of gap 106.00

Market TAO Monday 10-26-09

More of the same today...Asia and Europe are up , US Dollar weak ...Trading range is expested to be confined to the Triangle until Wed's ...... There is no way to determine which direction the market will break......I COULD MAKE GOOD ARGUMENTS FOR EITHER DIRECTION....

My plan today is to buy the SPY low retracement after the opening gap up at 108.32 and reverse position at touch of triangle upper trend line for another ride down ........ 100 point range trade.

Market TAO Week Ahead 10-25-09

The Bulls fought very hard to hold this lower triangle trend line at the close on Friday. This is a significant place ..

As you can see failure to hold above and break out of the Triangle to the up side will most likely see the Gap below filled .....

Triangles are difficult to trade... use small amounts and tight stops to trade the interior body.... be nimble...

we will most likely know the direction of the break by end of week.

James Taylor-Up On The Roof

Eva Cassidy - Somewhere Over the Rainbow

Pumpkin Patch

Prespectives 10- 23-09

Been doing this way back to 1978.....the fundamentals are for the first time in my life thrown out the window.....most of the metrics I learned to trade with don't provide any true since of reference. It has come to a point no one trusts the analysts or the anointed reporting entities either. I am amazed at how bullish the markets are to date...To a point, I am questioning my own point of view and wanting to give in to the BS.....The media makes me nauseous because I know what is going to happen...I really think they do too....That is why it is being so over sold every day. The shift is now moving away from the USA...... but to where? What are the new reference points and how are they to be measured? As a day trader this all really doesn't affect my performance....but there is a heavy weight in the atmosphere.

Market TAO Fri 10-23-09

SPx will either break above upper resistance lines or remain in this sideways forming channel

....Overnight we saw it all go up Oil,Gold, Asia, Europe ...even the USDollar..

Spy Will Gap up to 109.83 resistance line...

Home sales report due and Bernakie is talking as well.....I always lose money when he talks...

So my plan today is to remain neutral
and see how price responds to these upper resistance lines.

If we gap up and break lines I'll go long and we most likely head to Spx 1120.

If the lines hold... we will most likely spend the rest of day up here fighting it out. I dont anticipate any meaningful sell off today.