I expect a bounce this AM after a big down day up to ES 898 then a continuation of down for the rest of day.....Fomc is tomorrow
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10:00et am....spy is moving up to pivot 9082 if buying keeps up we could be at 9055.....realestate is up from May so that could help ...Xl's are holding yesterday range but Teck is a little weak.....my long trade from yesterday is still down.....yesterday sold off more than i thought it would.....price made a wave 5 extention down in the last few min's so i am expecting an ABC retracement this AM to the up side to 9025 -9050.....
tick is mixed... price is rotating around Vwap....(volume weighted moving average)
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10:30 et am ...markets are moving consistent with range trade so far ....8988 to 8910
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10;44 et pm...Industrials, materials, teck and energy are all showing weakness this AM...the Dow is leading the market around by it's nose.....but the low end of range is on declining volume....but a bearish tick bias is gaining strength...
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How in the world dose one evaluate the Statement "Weaker than expected but better than"..?
is that good is good? or good is bad? or is bad good ? or bad is bad?..........I think when they don't really want to tell you the truth, they feed the market with this kind of junk....
how can the housing market be less bad when the credit cost is rising? most of these sales are related to forclosure....that is not Retail Sales.... that only drives the price of homes down.....
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11;12 et am..... the bears are slowly grinding the market down ......the xlf is starting to follow as well .... not sure i get the weakness in teck today though....
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11:30 et am.....sectors are returning to yesterday range.. lets 'see if it holds up
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12:07 et pm ....spy ..trend line break on interday chart this appears to be the first leg up after a 5 wave down move..the first target is the daily pivot 8975 to8990
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2:20 et pm.....spy is at top of range 8970 ...if this breaks up the resistance layers are 9890...9000....9025 and 9050......tick is strong +1000 with increasing volume this looks like a possible 5 wave up formstion developing ...if this is wave 3 starting price should reach 9050...
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if you look at a spy 10 min chart there is a small inverted head and shoulders completion ...spy is at the right shoulder neck line ...if this breaks up the target will be + 85 points........ to 9075
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3:20 et pm spy is building an ascending triangle at the end of this 5 wave pattern looks to be a series of 3 wave ABC 's ......it is hard at this time to tell if this will be a continuation or a reversal ..... but the market hasn't been doing much that makes scene except in hind sight.........corrective patterns are difficult to track while they develop any way ......most times you can't tell what they are until it's all over............best you can do most times, is eliminate what it's not doing..... but todays action is acting more like a reversal back to the up side rather than a continuation or correction for more down side...... This is a key reasion i dont like to trade corrective patterns ...but the market gods enjoy squeezing those who are on the wrong side of the trade down to the very last drop of blood........that is another reason to never never never add to a loseing trade.... so i don't.........
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close......the market tick closed with a bullish bias..... spy with a series of modestly higher highs and higher lows from the inter day low I am optimistic we will see a green day wed's......so am holding again my long position .....market fudies where firming up ......don't think fed is going to make any changes at there FOMC anouncement so we sit tight.......i really dont like to hold a position more than two days particularly due to time loss factor in options......it's like pouring oil in to a funnel.....
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Pre Market TAO Tuesdat 6-23-09
Monday, June 22, 2009
ProphetCharts: SPY
Inter Day Divergence set up......notice decling price vs the declining volume and the positive divergenve ot the MACD.....this suggest sellers are losing interest
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Pre Market TAO Monday 6-22-09
There no big event today other than the Bond auction at 11am et.....the es overnight has printed a 919 high and a 905 low ...the US Dollar is up and Eurostocks are down sharply.... gold is down as well as oil...and commodities....looks like a flat open ....all Xls closed in thursdays range ....the only xl's trading above the May range are xlk / xly / and xlu..... i expect a dip today and a rally to fridays high afted the auction
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9:55 et am....all the Xl's have fallen out of bed at open and are trading below friday low....
tick is clearly neg -1200 ....... spy is approching 9030 ,,,last weeks low....we wait for reaction to this support level ...i am expection a bounce.... i covered my short for a 100 point gain.... now am looking for a long trade back to top of range........
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11:30 et am put on a long spy 9034 .....stop 9005 ....target 9085
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12:00et pm........the market is stretched out to the down side this am selling pressure should start to let up now that European markets are closing....... should snap back toward the pivot spy 9208
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12:30 pm et......spy just broke up thru the interday down trend line lets see if it holds.....
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a good clue the market will diverge away from the prevailing trend is when all market sectors dont follow along...today the xle / xlk / xli / and xlb where all at new weekly lows but the other xl's stayed in the weekly range and did not make any new low..... this looks more like a rotation ie: money being moved from one sector to another.....which suggests we may remain in a range trading environment...-----
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When markets start to move the first question i ask is, where is the money going?
Money dosen't just POOF! and turn in to thin air....it has to go some where.......Today it looks like money is flowing to treasuries and bonds ....... safety ...... look at the TLT etf...... it is about the only thing thats up ....
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1:48 et pm....the markets look like they are all trying to turn ....we have hammer doji on all 10 min charts dow / naz/ sp.....
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2:19 et pm .......on a gap down day with a runner the price will eventually return to test or fill the gap befor continuing down....but most times the close will be at the low of the day ..so we got about 2 hours... to see. added to long at 89.70 2 contracts
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2:41 et pm looks like buyers are starting to nibble here ...tick +800
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3:00 ... I', really disappointed today with the Bulls ...they haven't even put up a fight so far......they have pretty much let the bears have their way .......
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3:30 et pm It's very hard to be a buyer of dips at the end of the day when this market down like this ...the crazy buyers usally show about now ...we will see if they show.. i would like to see a 9025 print so i can get out clean today
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close Well my peanut butter and jelly sandwich fell exactly the way it always dose no the close....face down.......so i will hold this over night and trade it out on turn around tuesday.....we should test the gap at least....
Friday, June 19, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
Looks like this bearish wedge is going to follow through next week..That's why i carried my short over the week end.....
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Pre Market TAO Friday 6-19-09
There are no big economic reports due today.....the key event affecting market action is options expiration and rollover.....this can get a little jumpy ..... gold is up...oil up ...US Dollar a little down..ES futures over night is in mini rally mode up to 920 resistance ( really looks like a big bear flag to me....) but spy will gap up at the open, completing the original plan i started with until i got head faked and falsely broken ..... I held my short over night so i am gona get some heat at the open but it shouldn't last long.....will add on to short at top of gap 93.03 to 93.25 for the next ride down....target of 90.00 .........
Starting Monday.... The window dressing will start up for the end of the Quarter and mutual funds will start buying any thing that is up .....and sell any thing that is down...the fundamentals will be largely ignored .. in fact we should see some interesting analysis upgrades to help it all along......it will be all about printing a good looking book for the qtr report......but on first week of July , Watchout.....they will be throwing those buys out the window.... as overbought.
my plan is to short the ultra triple short ETF's up to the end of the month....
Faz / Bgz /Typ /Ery
then go long the first week of July......
caution!... these etf's are day trade products, they really don't work well with a long term buy and hold stratigy.. and be carefull they're fast movers both ways....
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9:40 et am xlf and xlv jumped out first .... spy small gap up on open ....tick a bit bullish ....dia naz rut all above pivot....us dollar opened down but still above upward slop trend line.........
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9:55 added to short 9260/ 2 contracts ......at 92 delta....101 july put ....eq value 370 shares
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10:00 so far all Xl's have remained within yesterday range...other than health care which is still above range.....tick is a bit bullish but turning neutral.....ES futures is slugging it out at 922 ..dollar is moving up a bit
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10:30et am....put in a bear flag and the target to exit will be 91.92....
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1041 et am...this bear flag in at the last stand of 62% retrace ....this market feels like yesterday ...it has follow through issues....revised target is 92.00 exit..
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1052 .......teck is poke'n its head up into wed's range but on low volume.... tick just popped a +800....spy is back at top of range.....the dollar is noodle'n sideways......this is the markets 3rd run at the spy92.65.......and the 6th runn up into this zone......it is either going to break up or fail ......i think a reversal is in the cards....
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12:25 et mp....sell off is in full swing here spy is at pivot if it falls below target is 9150 then 9138 ...the volume and tick is not really strong enough to sustain further move down ....for now, only light pressure...but we may bleed off the rest of the day...
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12:48.................covered 2 contracts with 60 point gain....could be more down to go.....
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1:01 pm et ....this could be a turn point ...i covered my other 2 contracts ...60 points +
that is 110 points total......lets see what the afternoon session has for us....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------spy is sitting on the upward sloping trend channel that starts from wed's low.... it's bounce or break time......i dont the bulls are going to give up that easy ...i say we bounce ....to 9220 or 9250
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1:30 et pm....put on a long at 9205 target 9250 ....stop 9180
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2:oopm .....ok...we had a interday down trend line break to the up side ..with a test ( that's where i jumped in ) now we have a retest of the confluence of the up and down trends......this should go higher now.....we need a higher high on this push with some + volume and + ticks...or im callin it a bear flag!
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ok..ok..ok it's a bear flag ...i got stopped out ....
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2:30 price spy came back up to 9180 so im short here to the close 2 contracts...target 9130
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3:30...the crazies are back....this is where for me chart analysis and logical pattern price moves fall of the edge of the table.....it is unbelievable the amount of money it takes to move the whole market this much this fast against the prevailing trend
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What a stinker of a week. It was just a lot of hard work........lost Monday......won Tuesday ... won wed ...squeaker Thurs.....won some today ..got stopped out, a loss ..... jumped back in.....and had to carry over a near break even to Monday....so i guess this week was kinda of just ok...small win overall ..so now we start the new week with a little more than we had last week......that fulfills NeboXian's number One Rule.......Don't lose the MONEY....
Thursday, June 18, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
Make Ya Nuts ......don't it.....Serious BI-Polar condition.....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Here is a one day one min chart of today.......you can see my entry and exit points ......i re entered short at my exit point...and carried the trade over to AM session.....market is really fighting over this 9235 zone ...but it looks like the bears may win friday and monday....there just dosen"t seem to be enough firepower left in the Bulls to keep pushing this market up.....
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Pre Market TAO Thursday 6-18-09
The TAO is neutral this AM.......The Jobs report was as expected so that is already priced into the market.....so even though 605 thousand jobs were lost .....which is very bad......the market will think this is good because it is not worse bad.....the asian, euro stocks are down and the ES futures remained in a tight range overnight......we have Geitner yapping this AM and the Phillie Fed report at 10 am......Spy looks to open flat....so we watch the tick and volume ....the plan i posted last night shows 3 possable paths ...i am inclined to think spy will open flat and rally out of channel ,, test it, then work its way to the high blue path.... at 9300......but we do what the market tells us to do....
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9:40 et am....xli is weak and xlk is following down to bottom of yesterday range...tick is bearish...xle is falling as well...spy is at the 9157 pivot ......
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10:01 spy just broke upper channel...we wait for bounce and buy.....9180ish
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10:17 et am.....spy is above yesterdays range and tick is pos +1000 then +800 IF PRICE REMAINS HERE WE HAVE A TREND TO UP SIDE.... a good entry here is 92.31
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10:30 et am....92.80 to 93.25 is exit zone.......when price get up there use a tight stop because i expect price to reverse quickly..92.99 is my goal here.
10:38 this is a continuation flag at 92.32 ..the next impulse wave should take price to my goal
10:47 you can tell this flag is a retracement of this morning leg the fib is at 38% and the volume is dropping and the tick is not less than -500 to -700
10:55 i added 2 contracts to my position at 92.05
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11:15 et am the NASDAQ has been weak all AM if she dosent get above the open and pivot we could get pulled back in to yesterday range for the remainder of the day......so keeps your dukes up...
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11:30 tme market is struggling to move higher ....the naz is the laggard ......
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Timmie has been talking all AM ....don't think we are going to have much life till he stops yapp'n
spy has bumped the 92.34 three times ...we need to break up here or we are gona be stuck in this range .....naz is still weak but making another run to the pivot ....
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12:25...spy range is getting narrower and we keep getting higher lows on each bounce from 9234.. this represents behavior of an ascending triangle.... we are reaching a break point .....
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12:36 et pm....just not having any big boys step up to buy ...we need some volume and strong ticks to push up out of this triangle....
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12:47...i am moving my stop to 92.16......if we dont break up on this push spy is gona get tired..
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12:30 Ahhha SWeet .....break up....naz too! ....
the next hurtle is 9250....the shorts are probably hiding just above that.....there is still alot of supply uphere for the sellers.....so this my be a real slog to the goal line....
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1:00 et pm ...looks like financials are ready to pop to the up side ...we need a little rocket fuel push....
blast off!
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1:10...move stop up to 9250
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retest of 9250 area ......
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1:39 et pm lower high and lower low......is my signal to bail out if we dont make it above 9260
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1:45......neg divergence is begining to build in the major sectors ......market look to be heading back to the mean ie:the pivot point 9157.......-
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this last push is on lower volume with a neg _800 tick ...it is all starting to smell of a false break out...with a small double top.......
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205 et pm market is falling back n to yesterday range...have exited long at 9250 and now short at 9235
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all the XL's are starting to show weaknes and price rejection from their range highs....tick is going bearish as well ...this last spike up on spy is on low volume....all suggesting more down side
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2:49 et pm ...spy back up to test the 9250.....but that is still a lower high.......but I am starting to get tired of these head fakes and hood winks......this type of market is hard to trade ..... it all acts like it wants to roll to the down side but can't.....eeeeeuuuh!
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but i must say I feel more comfortable short here than long.......we are just below the S&P500 es futures 920 ......which is a key support and resistance area....
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the US dollar has been flat all AM and got a nice boost in the last 60 min's ...that would account for the drop in the market......Dollar looks like it building a bull flag for another run higher ......which is good for my short spy pos....
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3:20 et pm we are entering the twilight zone.....the last 30 min's .......so get your 50 cent piece out and give it a flip.......are the crazies gona show up or stay away?
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looks like the Bulls are gona pull the pull out the Big Cannons to keep the close above S&p 920 ?
or are they getting short of powder ...they have been doing some heavy lifting today.....
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
reversals with wedges most times meander sideways to upward ...they are difficult to project targets and price points...... look to left for support and resistance zones along with fib's ....some times they will retrace back to top and others will just move sideways in a low to mid range channel......
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Alternate trades for thursday 6-18-09
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Thursdays Game plan 6-18-09
I think tomarrow will be a range day 9230 high and 9080 low...but the market dosen't care what i think .....so i always have alternates....
buy 91.00 down to 90.80
stop 90.65
sell 92.15 up to 92.30
stop 92.45
alternate .. if price fails at top of orange channel sell there and follow the red path......or if price gets to "c" and reverses at top of orange channel follow the blue path...
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Pre Market TAO Wednesday 6-17-09
The overnight ES futures Action is clearly shifting the overall sentiment to the down side.....at this point i am leaning more to a seller of rallies but not totally convinced yet....the dollar is seeing some strength and oil is down as well as gold....the stronger Dollar will feed in to the bearish trend direction........the pivot is 92.04 and the spy will open gap down and below daily pivot.....so we are in a holding mode at open will see if yesterday ranges hold and watch tick and volume for first 30 min's........i will usally use the 2 day down rule and buy the open .....but we are seeing too many bearish indicators this AM....
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9:35 et am....energy , indus , finan, mat ar all starting out below yesterday range....
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10:40 ET AM ....The markets are in the bad news is Bad mode today......the Spy is lagging because of the bank sector down grades the financial' s are dragging the market down.....tick is in bearish bias .....looks lke all other sectors are beginning to follow the banks....
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12:00 et pm ....spy is moving back up to yesterday range....well see if it holds....it al so put in a mini head and shoulders...target is 9225...then 9275....will enter here at 91 75 with stop below 9150... ...spy call july @10.00 ....2 contracts with 93 delta ....eq to 183 shares....
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12:20 et pm....tick is moving to bullish bias and all markets are beginning to get positive .....just broke 2 day down trend line...with increasing pos volume.....looking ok so far...i would feel better if we see some real strong up ticks +1000...
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12:42 et pm .....I covered my long at break even ....just dont like the action...will wait for market reaction to president speak...
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1:20 et pm...I'm taking the other side of this trade ......short...9175 spy target 9125 with a stop at 9201.....option play is july put 101 strike with a 89 delta...
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1:45 et pm.....More regulation is good news? this is a crazy market ......financial's are rallying .....i should have stuck to the plan .......now bad news is good.......
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2:46 et pm ......spy has a trend break of interday rally .....volume riseing and tick -800 ....this is a short play to the close .....i think spy will remain in this 9225 to 9100 range for the next few days .and with the overall sentiment i an inclined to sell rallys ....oh ya ..im short at the trend break candle..
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3:22 pm et....the last hour of trading has been a coin toss ....for me it like making a peanut butter and jelly sandwich .... and dropping it on the floor .....the peanut butter side always lands down no matter which side of the bread i use.....but the crazie buyers have been hiding the past two days....maybe they will stay away to day too...
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3:52 et pm Wow the bulls are shooting every cannon they got to keep the close in the green
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3:59 et.pm ...closed out trade with a little squeeker of a profit...... I'm gona call today a wash....
but that is ok it is all about preserving money to fight another day...... .....the key thing to do in trading is do every thing you can to lose less than you make..... and even? ...well.. is not losing...
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
ProphetCharts: FXE
There is still lots of down side for the Euro Dollar over the Summer.. which means the US dollar will get stronger.... A strong US Dollar makes it hard for US companies to sell product over seas and makes US stock less attractive to off Shore invesrors. this could be a bad omen for Us Equities and Commodities...suggesting a major decline in stocks and commodities ...this also is supported buy the chart of the Vix i published a few days ago...the Month of July is the beginning of the 3rd quarter ....
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ProphetCharts: SEPR
Here is a chart to put on your radar over next 2-3 days.
. if you are new to options ...do this on a demo trader to get a feel how options work....
a july $20 strike put is $4.50 per contract ....with a .91 Delta...
two $450 contracts or $900 and are..( equilivent value) to 182 shares of SEPR @ $2900 .....if the entry is at SEPR $16.00 the contract will cost less...a move from $16.00 down to $14.50 will net approx 150 points x 182 shares =about $250 return...the trade looks like a 4-5 day hold for next week...this option has low open interest and daily volume so it may take a few hours to exit at a limit price ......never place orders at market....they will skin you.
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ProphetCharts: $SPX
See my video on Wedges.........Here is a bigger view of the past 5 days........Downward sloping wedge is bullish.......
upward sloping wedge is Bearish........the reversal projection targets with wedges are not as defined as other reversal chart patterns...so you have to take your cues from the left side of the chart and look for past support and resistance in addition to Fib's...
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ProphetCharts: SPY
This is a continuation of Monday nights chart ....the plan worked almost perfect except the market tried to jump ahead of my time projection..HEE.. HEE......today spy put in a final 5th wave down with a very small 5 wave reversal diagonal triangle pattern at the end ( see my video on reversal triangles)...this is also called a Wolf wave .....so the plan for Wednesday is to buy at 91.50 ish and exit at 92.80 upto 93.60.... i will place my stop below 91.35 at 9125 this is a 25 point risk...with a 100 to 200 point reward ratio....
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ProphetCharts: $TICK
Nyse Tick .....1 min .......has turned bearish ....with - 1000 tick and no ticks above +600 ...notice the 200/ 50 /20 MA's are under the zero line .....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
5 min SPY.......smells like a rollover to me.......up against chart resistance 3 rd test.....riseing or flat price.......decreasing volume and a neg MACD divergence.......this could be it....soon...
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