SPY ....probable target levels for Tues sell at 9347 to 9379 and exit at market close or carry to WED target 9180 to 9135....stop placement 94.15
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Monday, June 15, 2009
ProphetCharts: SPY
SPY ....probable target levels for Tues sell at 9347 to 9379 and exit at market close or carry to WED target 9180 to 9135....stop placement 94.15
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ProphetCharts: SPY
This SPY 2 Year chart is a study of ATR...Average True Range and Volume....notice when ATR is lowest and price is highest, the sell off is very abrupt....this time we also have 3 months of declining volume against increasing prices.....this has the potential to be explosive...to the down side ....expect wide volital swings and an incerasing Vix....also notice the 2007 Aug to nov price / volume divergence as well...
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Pre Market TAO Monday 6-15-09
It All about Safety vs Growth.........we are seeing the Dollar rally and commodities fall over weekend...this indicates the markets are moving toward safety this AM......Will have to watch how US markets respond ......as for now, Emerging markets as well as Asia and Euro markets are selling stock and buying treasuries....also suggests a move toward safety ..........ES futures are down and testing multi day rang low.......wil be watching opening Gap down on Spy for any sign of further break down below the ascending triangle we have been tracking for the past 8 days ....for now, ES at the "G" spot ....we could go either way .....right now i am long spy ......but ready to bail if market continues to show weekness......
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Havent seen a +500 tick all am...we are clearly in a down trend day ...the bull arem't even putting up a fight......we will see if we get a test of lower triangle trend and if price fails here. it is time to become bearish for the near future.....will consider switching to sell the rallys mode..
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4:02..et pm....very slow trading day.......this week is oxp ( options expiration ) in addition to all the indecision and low volume .....makes for a tough to trade.....this really dosen"t feel like a bearish sell off type down pressure day.......if there where a large bearish sentiment, they would have clearly had the opportunity ......so i really dont think a short play, other then scalp trades, is at this time the best way to go..... right here we are at a major support level SPY 92.00 area if price drops below there then we could be short....but for now the market is esencially directionless..... I have been long sence friday am so today was a bit panefull with a opening gap dow and run down to a stalled market . so i just sat it out and was expesting the crazie buyers to show at the close and they where hiding too...
for now i have closed out all my positions for a loss ...ouch! .... and am sitting on all cash...... we will see how the overnite markets look at todays session............we'll start out fresh in the am
Friday, June 12, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
Wow! something has got to give! This is a Bull vs Bear Slugfest...
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Pre Market TAO Friday 6-12-09
The TAO is neutral this am....After the big sell off at the close Es futures flatlined overnite and resumed selling at 5am et...
Spy will open a little down from close ...dollar is firming up and oil is selling off a bit ....still a buyer of dips so a move to wed's buy zone is a buy ,,,,
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9:40 et am..... financials strong......energy weak.... tick neg bias ....spy gap down but trying to rally
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10:21 et am ....tick is still neg bias ,big buyers havent stepped up to plate yet ...xl's have moved back up into yesterday range.....and just got first +800 tick with increasing volume.....i wouldnt call this a trend yet ...we need to fill am gap and hold above it....
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10:38..et am......looks like xly is selling below weekly lows....all xl's are in a miutiday range and lifting higher ......this could be a rotation of money out of consumer staples to more risker sectors....this makes sence with a low Vix ...
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10;45 et am spy just filled am gap ...now we see if she holds
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10:55 et am ....looks like gap is holding now we need to take out the pivot point at 95.08....and a little more volume , please sir....
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11:04 et ..am ..........es futures have moved above daily pivot and well above overnite lows....xl's are in wed/ thur range and nyse tick is mixed ...so we look to be range trading today......
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12:18 et pm...spy retraced am rally to 62% fib and now on way back up.....this should be wave 3...which should take price above pivot...
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1:12 et pm......the Nyse has been broken and it looks like their desk people are doing all the trades manually.....the market action remindes me of my cat coughing up a hair ball......
we're just dwaddling along......
Thursday, June 11, 2009
ProphetCharts: $VIX
Here is a long term weekly trend line of the Vix....the end of June is the target for a bounce.....this is also the end of the quarter.....here is where there can be a major reversal......this also correlates with the Spy projected target high....yesterday i talked about Mutual Fund window dressing buys into the end of the Quarter .....once the qtr is printed expect the big dump....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
This formation is on SPY 5 min interday......looks like a great set up for the big push to finally get well above the daily 200ma and range we have been stuck in the past 9 days
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ProphetCharts: $SPX
Spx ...S&P 500 ....this is a CUP and Handle Pattern which is a very Bullish formation....today was an interday break out of high and the second close above the 200ma...the 1000 target may be the next stop ....we need a break and close above this formation to conferm.
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Pre Market TAO Thursday 6-11-09
The daily TAO is green.....The overnite futures where basicly flat ...due to the June rollover to Sept.... I 'm still in buy the dip mode.....any return to yesterday buy zone is a buy......spy is still in multiday range.....
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10:00 et am.....spy is at or approching range high.....are we going to break away? or start a "F" leg down...I think... we get an "f" and "g" leg ........the tick or the volume supports a big break out this AM......just dosen't feel strong here...
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10:30 et am...if spy test this high and fails it will be a short play to yesterday low 93.50 ish place stop just above high ..
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11:45 et am......short AT 95.30 with stop above 95.50......target 93.50
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12:10 et pm ......covering short at 95.15 very small profit......the bond auction starts in 15 min... will watch for better tick and volume action
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12:35 et pm.......all the XL"S have remained in yesterday range other than xlk and xle.....the xlk is turning back down into range ......xle is still well above range but looks to be turning back down as well.....the naz....dow .....s&p ...russ ....all look like bull flags ........tick is very range bound but leaning to bullish side..............just watching for now....
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1:10 et pm.........looks like the market likes the bond auction yields got a strong tick up ....i"ll wait 30 min's to see how it is digested and wait for a support test to go long....we had a break out to the up side but volume was not huge ....and tick should be slammin the +1200 ....and it's not .........i am reserved here.....
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2:15 et pm ....i am long at support test of 95.70 looks like it is gona hold .....stop below 95.50
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2:40 et pm .... this is a very lethargic break out for a major area..... volume is poor and tick is still weak than expected...
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Ishould have suspected this was a false break out ......these markets are very bi-polar......that's why i keep stops so close to entrys........the last hour of trading i have concluded to be a waist of time ....it seem that the program trade Bots kick in and you just cant tell what they are going to do....i find the last hour of the day is like rolling dice.......there are two options 1. pull off the trade by 3pm or 2. ignore the last hour if you are with the major trend which will re assert itself in am trading.....to day i was long at 95.70......the market sold off inthe last hour 80 points.......I decided to add to my trade at the close and take the am trend up...
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Pre Market TAO Wednesday 6-10-09
looking to a early opening gap up ...expect gap to fill down to high 9390 then reverse to up side....the TAO is Green and i am a buyer at 94 or lower
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pre market gap up and sell off has moved back into multiday range .....if price remains below yesterday high we should see move to target buy area as the day progresses...
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2:00 et pm....I 'm in long AT 93.30 with stop below 93.00
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3:00 et pm .....Strong +900 ticks and increasing volume looking good to close....got some hurtles.......s1 @ 9405 , then volume weighted moving average @94.15 , then to pivot 9460 .... then r1 @95.17......got some selling supply at 50%fib too.
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3:46 et pm .......gona take profit here 94.10 ....nice day ...85 points.....buyers are not as aggressive as they have been on these dips........
ProphetCharts: SPY
Ascending Triangle .....are continuation consulidation patterns..I always buy the "E" ....with a stop under the "C"....a good E will rairly retrace all the way to the A-C trend line......This break out has the potential to be very explosive to the up side.
1. Most Bears are heavy short expecting a big down correction...but corrections can be sidways ie: time ....
spy has had 2 time corrections .. the month of May and the first 10 days of June...
2. The Dollar is showing more weakness . This is good for Equities and commodities.
3. Mutual Funds must speng the next 20 days Window Dressing their portfolios ....they will buy any brand name that has outpreformed in past 3 months even if the fundamentals are bad......and they will sell anything that has underpreformed even if the fundamentals look good....
4. SPY is at the 200ma ....any clean break above and hold for a week is very bullish...
5. Shorts are forced to buy back their shares at higher prices which adds rocket fuel to the fire.....
The price target could be 100 to 105
This could be the interesting....
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Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Per Market TAO Tuesday 6-9-09
Spy has been trading in multiday range 9510 to 9310 ......hard to tell where the market will go ...
dollar is trying to stage a come back but looks to be stalling , oil looks to be topped out ....gold cant hit that magic 1000 mark.....bond yield are rising..... the market is still in buy the dips mode ....so even though all indicators are not looking great for the markets....today i stay with the big money and they are still buying the dips......spy is sitting on the 200ma so the big mutual funds are afraid they will miss any up side and they are buying like crazy cause that is all they can do.........looks like we open flat so the best thing to do is watch the XL's and see who leads in the first 30 min"s...im thinking ... xlk because Texas Inst had a great earnings report............................................................. the plan today is to buy in low 93 ish and with a stop below 92.70 and sell 94.80
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1030 et am ....market has settled into a range day with spy 9500 high ....no significant buying or selling on nyse tick ....no real leader sector this am .....relative volume is low as well...
Thursday, June 4, 2009
ProphetCharts: SPY
Todays price action looks very much like a riseing mini Bearish Wedge....notice the falling volume vs riseing price divergence.....
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Day Trade Journal 6-5-09 Thursday
We opened gap up with a test of the jan high 94 at 945 amet.... and sold off to pivot 9351 ...we are just under pivot and noe having any strong neg ticks -800 looks to be a range day ....
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1127 et am we are filled at 94.20
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1156 et am spy is hovering at 9407 ...xle . xlf are leading all others look to be rolling over....tick is neutral
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dollar is starting to show weakness ....xl's stalled took a tiny profit 9387... nervous markets to day... europ is closing down ....hard to say what rest of day will do selling pressure isn't building ...
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130 pmet.......spy has moved up to and through tuesdat low support range .....past support can be future resistance......we are clearly above wed's range ...steady tick +1000 ..... I am skeptical of this rally because the volume has been dropping all day.....
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214 pm et .....spy is about to fill wed's opening gap....this could be a resistance point if not we have wed's pivot to test........ to days price action is really looking like a bearish mini wedge...
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if you read my post on SPX yesterday the close was a very nice looking evening star candle pattern at extreme bollinger band top on the daily chart.....most times the price will retrace back up to 50 % to 99% of the previous day candle ......evening star's are very good sell signals.....the best play would be to short as close to top of pattern9540 with a stop very tight just above high 10 -15 pionts...9550... ......expect price to move sideways for 4- 6 days if price dosent break above the high and watch for a nother bearish candle pattern to form ie: dark cloud , 3 inside down or another evening star to start the price moving down... keep a close eye on the tick and volume..........
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300 et pm watching the Naz and russell .....to see if they hold these highs.....or break down end of day....
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 311 et pm ....trend break spy.....with increasing volume ......
Pre Market TAO 5-4-09 Thursday
The over night action looks to be bullish for the US Dollar.....the ECB voted to hold rates as is...
the S&P futures printed an overnite range of 938 - 923 .....retail store sales are mixed to down...
and continues jobs claims were down slightly 4000 ....which is minuscule in the big number of 624,ooo jobs ..... still less than Horrible .
We are observing the 2 day rule...after a big run up, a decline on the first day should continue the second day and turn back up late the afternoon on the second day or beginning of third day.....
looks like we get a gap up at open .....
I will sell spy up to 94.20 and exit 92.75....stops at94.50
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
ProphetCharts: $SPX
SPX 500 ...Evening Star pattern ...a very bearish candle signal....with formation at top of bollinger band this is significant.......this could definatly take the steam out of this rally and throw the price action sideways or down with a smaller bearish candle pattern in the next week.....check this out after close ...if it still looks like this we could be in for a reversal
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Pre Market TAO 6-3-09 Wednesday
Four Days up into Resistance all day yesterday....the market scraped every thing it had for the dow Diamond to touch the 200MA on low volume......S&P 500 Futures are trading at Tuesdays lows .....ADP jobs report was a bit better or as expected ( less than horrible) but still on pace for 9% reportable unemployment......the big guys are buying all dips the net NYSE tick is biased to the bullish side.... S&P is stradeled on the 200mA .....the financials are weak....and oil looks to take a nose down today ...the dollar is in a rally against all other currencys....euro stocks are down.....
I think we r in for a volital day....very strong mixed currents.......spy looks to open down to Tuesdays lows and remain in the lower range trading .....I will watch the first 30 mins and see if we break the bottom of yesterday range ....or bounce back to top of range.....keep an eye on the relative volume and nyse tick......the market today will be like a pressure cooker ready to blow....you can almost see the steam coming of the charts......it will be an interesting day...
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954 et am......opened well below tuesday low..... first big neg tick -800 ...xl"S selling...volume is up looke to be a down trend day start... broke s2 support 9359
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1030 et am......tick is not agressively showing sell pressure.....but is starting to lead to bear side....Xl"s are paused and selling volume looks to be letting up.....this could be a transition to the up side .....took short positions off here 9340.... wait for more selling to increase....
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1037 et am Helocopter Ben is still talking .....very hard to read whats next untill he shuts up....
this may be a good place to put on a long trade to top of range ....wait for + 800 tick
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1100 am et spy is sitting at may high......93.23......if we break this to the bdown side we could see that correction the market pros have been touting for the past 6 weeks....... keep your power dry traders..... tick is neutral could see sideways for next few hours.....keep u posted
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Day Trading Journal 6-2-09 Tuesday
We have had Three strong up days in a row...today can expect a range day ( yesterdays high and low) or a down day if price breaks below yesterdays low ...right now price it at the pivot of 94.63 and no tick above +800
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10..amet Xl's ar on the move higher ...and we just broke yesterday high.. Financials and Energy the laggards..Just tested Jan high again ....we wait pass or fail......xfl financial is weak and hasn't filled it's opening down gap ....and energy is losing upward mojo....this test may fail
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1021et am ...spy is back under high....if it rises and fails again ..im a seller here..
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1043 et am ....there are still alot more buyers than sellers here....must wait till selling pressure picks up...... no neg ticks -500 or more.... looks like there is some rotation in the Xl"s....to comsumer disc and staples and health care.....Treasuries are also telling us the market is weak...
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1055am et ...XLF financials broke today low ....we could get a fresh wave of selling---
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the Dollar is a victim of Timmy's Big mouth....Every time he opens it the Dollar Drops....
this whole market Rally the past month has been a pure Dollar weakness play.....as soon as Timmy Shuts up the Dollar will go up....
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Pending Home sales Are exactly That...... Question is ,How many of those Are investment co"s and speculators buying for rentals and flips vs Real Home buyers .....and how many will ultimately be actually finalized?
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1145 am et ......spy is back to the daily pivot.... nyse tick is not building up sell pressure -750 convincingly.....light sell vol at pivot......looks like range is going to maintain ... energy is weak as well as financial..Dollar is coming off bottom.
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The biggest market in the world is Bonds, and when Rates go down the Yield goes up.....that means.....the yield component is the gross amount the investor makes over the life of the bond...
This is a good Tell to determine the over all direction of money flow........money always follows the best return......therefore if yields are going up , money wants to move to the higher yields....that equates to less money flows towards equities .......
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Monetizing The Debt?.........That is secret code word for the Government to print more Dollars (funny money) ..to buy down the debt........ AhAA ......Timmay!
ProphetCharts: FXE
I will be taking profits on any high today... I am expecting a US
Dolllar Bounce to the up side from here....
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Monday, June 1, 2009
ProphetCharts: ESM9
S&P futures are at the Jan High for a change of a double top...if price can break above 934 and hold the next target is 975...if price is rejected and falls below 930 we go back into last weeks trade range to as low as 875....also notice the MACD divergance developing
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Saturday, May 30, 2009
ProphetCharts: FXE
The Euro Dollar is chuggin along.....getting into target area ...expect the direction to change or reverse next week
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ProphetCharts: $SPX
This is a weekly chart of $SPX....Notice the Gravestone Doji followed by a Tall White Candle on the week of Jan 25 ,09 then again on the week of May 20 ,09......also the decending triangle.
Key Levels always get test befor the troops leave the battle field...check the 9 weeks down vs 9 weeks up symmetry as well..start at top of Jan to top of may ..an 18 week cycle top to top.....
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Friday, May 29, 2009
ProphetCharts: SPY
Wow.....Got it just right! see the previous chart on the weekend post...this was a very hard price action to day trade.....it just go's to show if you plan out ahead and take a good entry with a proper stop.....place the trade and hold your nose.....it is very hard to do even for the most experienced traders.....I try to stick to the plan because almost avery time I deviate or or become impulsive....it cost money ...and I end up unhappy with my self. mY best work comes when I take a core position of 50% of my trade commitment and make my best entry...the balance i use to trade the swings during the day...I'll post a new game plan for next week on sunday
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Day trade Journal 5-29-09 Friday
10:30 am etwe opened with a small gap up then a run up to 91.70 the secondary descending trend line...price moved back down to 9080 then rallied back to and tested high.... Xls are testing top of their ranges and the Tick is leaning to the bull side with one quik tick above +800.... looks like we hover here a while....volume is dropping off ......
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1045 am et ....Index's are felling back into yesterday ranges..... but sell volume is not really there.
tick is making lower highs but none greater than -800...
es futures is holding 910.........
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1100 et ...energi looks to be the only thing above the trade range...all the indexes are testing the move back down in to range as well....
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1145 et Indexes are at or below close and below Vwap spy is holding better than other three qqqq is leading down ....there is not alot of real selling pressure follow thru ....
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1234et....every thing i see is screaming to me, sell.....but the tick is stuck leaning on its bull side....
markets are thin and volume is low on this last little rally ....telling me bear flag .....but we need to see some selling pressure in the after noon session.....hard to say what we get for now...
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2:00 et....spy has tested and fallen back down through yesterdays trade range 3 times looks like there may be an evening star pattern building on the 30 min chart.....it is rare that spy dosen't tag the daily pivot line at least once in a session....
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4:05 et .....spy.... Whoa.....didn't see that huge short covering spike coming in last 10min's...
it looks like every short in the world was running for the big glowing exit sign.......I put on a nice
put play near the top of the spike 1 min bfor the close....these end of month day spikes nearly always gap down come monday and retest fridays range ....but just in case i got my stop in too...
have a good weekend...!
Pre Market TAO 5-29-09 Friday
The Daily TAO is Green...... Over night the world got Bullish .....world stocks r up....gold is up......oil is up......yields r down ....the dollar is just tanking........
The S&P Futures are running up to the Wednesday high of 914 and could touch the the 919 before the turn back down........the SPY will most likely gap up on the open to 91.75 .....I will sell the high of the first 30 mins .....and exit at the daily pivot zone 90.60 ish
The pending economic releases this am ......Chicago Pmi at 8:30.... prelim GDP ......Mich sentiment at 9.55 et....may make the wheels spin an extra 30 min's before the market get traction....
Thursday, May 28, 2009
ProphetCharts: UNG
Ok....if you missed the Buss on UNG ...it looks like a pull back to 14.50 -14.25 would be a good place to jump in.....it would be the last low risk entry on this lift....
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ProphetCharts: ESM9
This is a Daily of the S&P E-Mini 500....The Futures market trades Globaly 24 hrs........
Looks to me like the Bears are in a line Up for some Porage..... Or will Goldie Bull trample the picknic?
Something is gona give .....I think the Oil market is ready to break down ....and Bond Yields are going to push the market down....
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Day Trade Journal 5-28-09
10:23 am e t......so far trade is going as planed ......sitting at 89.40 building a contiuation bear flag ...looks like more down
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10:26: well below yesterday range with retest ....looking to break current low in a few min's
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1045 am.....bulls putting up a fight here moved back into range ...but no +750 yet
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1130 am .....got a non comfermation reversal .ad broke hard back in to range hugging the 90.32 for now
didnt cover back when i should have at 89.25...........but looks like we ma have a swing back down net tick is back to zero .......i just get mad at my self when i dont stick with the plan .....it always delivers pain.......
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1152 am......here is a good lesson...... when you file a plan stay with it.....because the trading gods winn punish you ........we gave it all back......so far.....
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2 pm price pulled back down to 89.75 and i covered ......
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3:07pm looking to a final hour sell off short at 91 .16 with stop just above 91.30
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4oopm ....wow what a whip of a day ! held position over nite we look to be at the top of this range and we closed at the s&P futures key resistance area of 905 ....we'll see in am how it dose
the gap was up to day expect gap to be down in am........
made some $$$$ today but i violated my trade plan buy not covering when i should have....
so i feel like i fought it all day......and dont feel like i did any good.......these markets are moving so fast if i step away to use the bath room it can take off .... .....ok it was an ok day ...so ill stop banging myself on the head...
ProphetCharts: SPY
Per Market TAO......Chart SPY .....looks to be an open to touch the pivot in the first 30 min's ...then we expect a reversal...
todays TAO is RED
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Pre Market TAO 5-28-09 Thursday
Today's TAO is RED
Overnight Asia did ok overall a up day ..... European markets look flat range bound.....The dollar got a 100 pip bounce up and could range 80 to 81.5 till Monday.....the overnight S&P futures look like it is putting in a bear flag and is breaking down.....we could see a small gap up at the open in the SPY.... I am still following the N vs N chart I posted over the weekend and it looks like this last 2 days are ( 1.5 days up and .5 day down) ...we need a full day follow through today to the down side to complete this series of cycles...so the Bears need to get busy.....
A few other things to watch today ....
The XLF and XLE are at the apex of a symmetrical triangle on the 30 day 30 min .............and UNG looks very interesting as well....
ok back to spy.....if we gap up and run up, my plan is to short the spy at the high in first 30 min's with a first target of yesterdays range low 89.50 , 2nd tgt 89.25 , 3rd 88.20.........
.....if we open even to flat we will go with the directional bias after the first 30 min's
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Day trade Journal Wed 5-27-09
10:12.... First 30 min went as expected looks like a range with a pole to pole swing of tick
-1000 to +1000 ......and now at zero ......price spiked above Tuesdays high and was rejected quickly back into yesterdays range.........looks like a range of 90.95 up to 91.60 for now.
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10:35 ...could have an ascending triangle on spy ....we have flat top and higher lows 5 min chart..
watch for another bounce at 91.01 ish ...got another +800 tick.... look for a firming up as the am moves forward...
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10:55 ...Tick si leaning to bullish ....we are on 45 min cycles low to low look for next bounce @ 11:30am et... at 91.13 this would a good buy point with stop just below 90.92
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2:pm et......price tagged the top of day range and quickly retreated back down to Tuesday range never gave me a entry opportunity......broke down thru trend line and is now resting on the 5o%fib......along with a-900 and -1160 neg tick........ we'll see if the fiddy holds...
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2:15 et ...brok tru 50 fib..and retested took short trade at 90.40 with stop just above 50% fib
target is yesterday pivot line 89.90
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2:27 ....closed short trade @ 89.90 thats .50 cents .......good trade...we risked .20 cent to make .50 cent thats 2 1/2 to 1 ratio....
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Pre Market TAO 5-27-09
After yesterdays huge climb, we can expect a bit of a rest ...todays TAO is Green.. market will most likely open near to yesterday close.. we should remain bullish but wait for the pullback ..... today may be a range bound day digesting yesterdays gain...... watch for10am mortgage apps report
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
The first 30 min's is Key
In the first 30 minutes the market is going through a price correcting and balance phase. This comes from the rollover of activity during the night before ....after the US market closes, Asia , Australia , and Europe are Trading throughout the night. This momentum is absorbed at the US market Open....Hence the gap will occur....there are several possibilities once the gap presents it self...
1. Gap opens within previous days trading range.
2. Gap opens above previous days range.
3. Gap opens below previous days range.
First thing to watch for is the TEST... expect that Price will always test the Support/resistance closest to where the gap opened........will it pass through or be rejected?
Here is where the NYSE Tick comes into play. The tick records the cumulative buying and selling each minute ...if above zero , there are more buyers than sellers .....if below zero there are more sellers than buyers.........
with the Tick there are significant ranges
- 500 to + 500 indicates a neutral bias
-750 to + 750 indicates a bearish or bullish bias and leans to a range bound price action.
greater than -800 or + 800 indicates a trending bias......up or down.
Volume is the next thing to watch...
now volume is a real time relative measure of the number of shares traded....
the key observation to make is how volume moves in relation to price movement.
(try to visualize driving a car and volume is the gas peddle)
1. volume moving up, more gas / price moving up the hill faster = buyers are in charge
2. volume moving up, more gas / price moving down the hill faster = sellers are in charge
3. volume moving down ,less gas / price moving up the hill slower = buyers are drying up
4. volume moving down , less gas / price moving down the hill slower = sellers are drying up
Let's pull the two above charts together.
min 1.... gap down below previous day lower range with big volume/ - 300 tick.
min 2 thru 7..... price is rejected from trend line and lower support zone...price is going up and relative volume is flat to rising ,tick is flat remaining around -300 area....
min 8 -10 .....price drops slightly with a volume spike , tick remains in -500 range (no big sellers)
min 9 - 18.... price rises with one test of lower support zone (long wick suggests strong buyers) with rising volume, tick moves above zero and up to +800 ( big buyers are moving with +800 blocks of shares per minute) also we have a rising 20 ma cross of 50ma ,, and 50 ma is rising above zero line....Potential to trend up
min 19-30.... price hugged up against pivot line (center line of daily trading range) with increasing to flat volume , tick continues to range above zero up to +800 .....Bullish
min 31...... gives us a buy signal with a break away and close above pivot and rise in volume along with a +800 tick.....
right here is the buy....with a stop just 3 points below the candle at 20 min's
ProphetCharts: SPY
WOW!.......what a fast Bounce today.......my analysis over the weekend, I neglected to draw in the lower purple assending line connecting the lower low and the higher low from 5-17 to 5-21....and i also missed the over nite low support bounce of the s&P futures which run 24 hrs globaly....had i done a better job here, we might have caught this bounce....that said, i still didn't think we would get a straight up rocket!...the bears didn't even put up a fight at the 89.25 pivot or the 90.00 friday top or the 50% fib...maybe we get a bit of a correction down to the 90.50 to 90.00 zone and jump on his rally up to the 92.00 target zone.....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Here we have a continuation Flag or a double top...we wait for the break away up or down .....
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Spy chart 11:30 AM 5-24
Look at this Volume ...it has beed going down all morning .....i suspect ..this spike is loosing steam
ProphetCharts: FXE
The Euro is moving to the up side in this classic Double bottom "W"
Pattern this a sign of the continuing US Dollar weekness..
Remember weak Dollar = strong commodities and stocks for the day trader the UUP 2x bull and UDN 2x bear will be a good Us dollar trade
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Pre Market Tao
We are In a Trading range 88.26 to 92.25 With weak volume.....the Spy has moved to a some what neutral overall stance.....The XL'S are not showing any sign of a strong trend.. this week could be the test of last weeks low 88.15 ......if we break out to the down side expect strong spike and then a support/resistance test...... if we bounce off the 88.15 to the up side we could go back to last weeks highs 92.00 area......S/p futures look to a opening gap down and we are well below the pivot ....we are still in holiday mode today and will observe the first 90 min's of trading and look for a sign to move in......three day holiday weekends are prone for reversals so the potential to get trapped in a trade is high....keep your powder dry ....
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9:30 oppened gap down and quickly moved back up to fridays low and back into fridays trade range and
gap is filled ....Nyse Tick is neutral
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10 am: spy moved to pivot and is now looks to test fridays high ...XL's just started to move back into fridays range as well ...to m4 pivot point nyse is tending to the bull side ....we wait to see if we break fridays high and hold ...if we do we could have a up trend day....
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10:15 spy filled thurs gap.....now we wait for pull back to89.80 to 90.00 area to buy in....
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10:30 xlb,xli , xle, so far have not reached thursdays gap this could be a sign of non correlation
to the other XL's ....which is a potential reversal sign ......the only thing pushing market up at this point is XLK , XLY , and sort of The XLF ........I dont like to chase this type of fast spike,,,, they tend to kick one in the teeth most of the time.....we wait to see if laggers pull up or the leaders pull down......
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12.00 Im just not convinced this spike can continue ....the dollar has filled its opening gap and looks to bounce up.....the Xle still hasn't joined the rally.....xlf is stalled at the thursday / fri high...and volume is not really there......I think the bulls are gona get their fingers caught in the cookie jar...
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12:42 Things are starting to look like this rally may hold......nyse tick has stayed bullish all AM
the XL'S Are all moving together... and Volume is starting to pick up ...with 3 narrow range doji's in a row ......will take a small position at 90.98 ....with a stop at 90.80
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12:47 really dont"t like the action to day ....i pulled off that last trade....will wait a bit longer
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12:57 .....2 mins after I jumped out...price jumped up .........wait for the pull back......91.00
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2:pm all the Xl's look to be at or approaching their upper resistance zones .......this Rally has been very sharp and unexpected this early in the week.......can't count the number of 10 am spikes that reverse and sell off with a vengeance.......so i tend to be overly cautious.....
but the markets are what they are......some times you get it right and some times you get it wrong...........my weekend analysis was right ....just didnt think it would happen this fast.....i have to say i missed a great Tell this AM ...over nite the S & P Futures printed an over nite low of 876.55... a major support level .....some it is impossible to have your eyes in all the right places.........still think this spike is getting tired....we will wait...
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3:10 I put in a short trede at 91.00 with a target 90.50 .... stop at 91.20
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3:50 having a bad internet feed today .......had to re boot 10 mins b4 close......
dont see this short moving .......best to close even....
Monday, May 25, 2009
Todays TAO Insight
AOL is going to get an x- Google exec for their new CEO........AOL still exists?......Ahaa....Really?
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Todays Tao Insight
50 Cent and Bette Medler to do a Duet?....... Is this really a sign of the impending apocalypse?
Chart 6 Support and Resistance
This is a chart pattern called an ascending triangle.....a consolidation period, usually seen in the 4th wave of the up cycle...see video on triangles....this is a time period accumulation phase where price retraces sideways rather then down.....as price moves up to resistance buyers are reluctant to pay a higher price as a result the price is rejected and falls , not to a lower low but a higher low than the previous low. This means the sellers are drying up on each consecutive Dip. Eventually the sell orders completely stop and the buyers take control (usually on the 3rd attempt) pushing price thru the resistanceline and a surge to the up side begines....
ProphetCharts: SPY
This is a very Critical support line if SPY breaks down here, there is not much to stop the drop to the target zone....if we bounce we could reach the upper target in 2 days .......also notice the potential for an decending triangle if we do bounce up .....we also have a possiblel Double Top to consider ....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Beginning with a pattern of 5 up and 5 down days , we now have the possibility of a 3 up 3 down days pattern completing.
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Saturday, May 23, 2009
ProphetCharts: SPY
Markets run in cycles .....this chart suggests a continuation of that cycle to nex bottom in next 4-5 weeks
For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net
Todays TAO Insight
Obama signed a bill to curb wasteful military defense spending........but wasteful economic defense spending......I suppose is still OK
Friday, May 22, 2009
live market trading 5-22
we are at the top of yesterdays high and has failed twice we are now short at 89.71 witha stop just above the high89.80
Pre Market TAO
With the holiday weekend here the market is prone to be a bit erratic ,,unexpected reversals can b common the day before a 3 day weekend ...... The daily TAO is neutral to bearish ......expect a trade range in the SPY 89.50 to 88.50 .....there shouldn't be any major moves ....if anything an open to the up side and a side ways action to European close at noon then a a lot of erratic movers while the big boys hedge up their book for the week.....
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Todays Tao Insight
In 2008 the oil company's said they had to raise prices because demand was way up.....
In 2009 the oil company's said they have to raise prices because demand is way down.....
go figure??........NeboXian
real choppy day ...jumped outat 88.85 after big boys registered some big block buys here..... we had a small loss here ...because we had the spike up while i was making last post ....and haden't moved my stop in.......over all a wash for the day ..... there is always tomorrow......or next tuesday......it is most likely a good idea to just take a long week end ......but i will be here till europe is closed about noon..... remember ...dont chase the trade...... and always have a stop in mind before you enter the trade...Neboxian
Mixed currents are hard to read some times......some times it's hard to get it right ...but see had you gone long there would be pain about now....we got a big spike to the down side....this is good...now we watch for a corrective bounce to jump on the down train...I'm thinking 88.75 test with a stop at 89.06with the a target of88.20 ......i don't like to chase these runs ....wait till they come back to a managable entery point ....if it dosen't come back then we just missed this trade....but the market will be there tommarrow
Vix is rising and dollar has bounced back a bit.....enrgy XLE is starting to roll as well as Xlf financial
we are down at the am lows for test ......we wait for a bounce back up to top of range before we jump back in to the short side......
.NeboXian Says
.the best way to lose money is to trade against the prevailing trend ....which is down to day.......problem is if you go long here and the trade goes against you ...then your trapped in the trade hoping it will come back to let you out.....and it also absorbs your mental capital because you cant concentrate on new opportunities b cause you brain wont let the losing trade go ......so you usually lose more .....its a vicious cycle.........the only thing you control here is when you jump in and how much you are willing to risk if the trade moves against you.
we will pull off this trade at a small profit..... the dollar is tanking in the last hour and energy is picking up steam to the up side .....we will step aside till 90 min's b4 the close..... and see how it looks...typically if the dollar is dropping, foreign investors will try to pile in and this can cause equity's to rise ...along with commidties like oil and gold.....with the pending holiday week end, volume is off and we are not seeing good follow thru....
we retraced back to 89.20 on relative low volume and there are no big block buyers moving in ....all xl's are moving together ......so we are more than likely to be in a 89.25 to 88 .80 range ....well see in 30 min's.....iff we break above89.25 and close above the range it is time to consider to close out trade if you did nt take you profit at 88.80
Pivot point 91.06 ...we are bearish at open below pivot ...looks like we open gap down and the momentum could carry spy down to support at 89.40 b4 bounce ....jobs are as expected and the dollar is in pause from the steady decline... pilly fed at 10 am et... so it could be that bad news is really ok today ...be carefull... trade in small amounts and use tight stops ..... if we get down to 89.40.....expect a large in flow of bulls to push the market back to 92.26
premarket TAO
SPY..... Today the Market TAO will be a RED TAO down .... .....Expect a gap down on the open ....after the initial sell off momentum expect a reversal 30 min"S into open...... price should then attempt a rally up to yesterday close 90.50 to fill the Gap.....key .....if price fails to rise above the open, then expect a sell off to begin...if price continues up .....SELL at or up to 91.20 ish with an exit target in the mid to upper 89's.....next post will be 30 mins into open
Follow me daily with my SPY Trades
The SPY is an ETF which tracks the S& P 500 Futures .....follow along and learn to Day Trade With me Live ....I will post my trade action in real time thru out the NYSE trade day..... in addition I will post my reason for taking the trade and the exit target .. ....Check in Early for the daily pre market Game Plan .....NeboXian
Friday, March 27, 2009
four-bears-large.gif (GIF Image, 912x662 pixels)
four-bears-large.gif (GIF Image, 912x662 pixels)
Will History repeat?
Take a look at this coloration to the Dow Crash of 1929....the Bear lasted 34 months....
we are 17 months into this .........
Right now we are experiencing a Bear Market Rally that began March 9 , 2009 .....once the S & P 500 Reaches the 850 range start looking for another leg down.......
Your first clue will be a big spike ( the Big Money is moving) in selling volume........NeboXian
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Buy Sell levels Chart 5
Most likely this a continuation Triangle. Notice the higher lows on each Correction phase (they're running out of sellers) and the unwillingness of the buyers to move the price higher ...watch the 5 phases of a chart and the triangle - correction and Impulse videos and try to develop your own conclusion.......NeboxianFriday, August 8, 2008
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Buy Sell levels Chart 4
Price will almost always bounce (reverse) if it dosen't break out above or below a previous base area The technical term for these key areas is
1.Support (Low level of base)
2.Resistance (high level of base area)
Sunday, August 3, 2008
5 Ema / 10 Sma Moving Average Chart D
The 5 ema (exponential moving average) and the 10 sma (simple moving average) are combined to complete the (200ma)........ (55ma / 21 ma) ................(10ma / 5 ma) .......moving average price alignment platform........the final 5ma/10 ma combo will show the momentum of the the price in relation to the 21/55ma.......this is all used together like one would sight in a rifle..once the 5/10 ma crossover and in agreement to the direction of the 21/55 ma crossover .....BANG! .....Pull the trigger..... and do what I do next......SO - HAW! (sit on hands and WAIT!)....Neboxian21 Moving average chart C
When combined, the 21ma and the 55 ma crossover points are powerful tools to identify the short term trend reversals . In addition, shows the speed of the trend and price as it moves in relation to the equilibrium 200 ma....these Crossover points are excellent entry and exit signals. and almost perfect when aligned with the 5ma and 10 ma combo...55 Moving average chart B
55 moving average will show the crossover and the relative seed of price as it moves away or back to the 200ma
Friday, August 1, 2008
Buy Sell Zone Chart 3
After a Long period of buying or selling , price will make a Pivot reversal because all the buy orders available are filled and all that's left are Sell orders .....price has to go down and will return to a previous low or a base . we call these areas of support . The reason price will return and rally from these areas are many but the main reason is because there are mega buyers or sellers who have huge orders to fill at a certain price and couldn't fill the entire order at the previous buy /sell session.... so....these mega buyers or sellers Wait for the price to return to these Base retracement zones.....and BANG....off we go again. ......NeboxianThursday, July 31, 2008
Monday, July 28, 2008
Support /Resistance buy and Sell Zones Chart 2
The first thing to remember in all trading.....price will not go up forever and price will not go down forever..... price will return and test previous zones of highs or lows at least once but many times price will return to previous price zones as many as two or three times ..... In this chart the price action at the top is showing signs of exhaustion for this leg of increase .....so we can expect price to move back to the previous price zone at least one time ......so this could be a low risk high profit entry for a limited time short sell....or wait until price retraces back to the target zone for a buy entry........on this chart, since the trend is up...I wouldn't expect price to travel below target zone . But once in the target zone expect a move back up toward the highest price point but not beyond the current High. Will cover more in next post...........NeboxianEquilibrium 200 Moving Average
The Very first Thing You do is Apply The 200 ma (moving average).....this will give a picture of the price range you're going to be trading ....the 200 ma is the Equilibrium line (price will desire to move back to this point) in addition , 200 ma will also show the prevailing Trend...The Best Low Risk.... high profit Entry point will be when price is at an extreme point with the most potential to RETURN to the 200 ma ........the next thing to do is look at least 4 time frames...start with the weekly time frame... then drop down to Daily .... then down to 60 min.......then down to the 15 min..The safest low risk trade will be when price in all 4 time frames are pointing in the same direction..... (toward the 200 ma) ......Once all the Home work covered in this Chart School series is complete......you' ll make your entry on the extreme of lowest time frame....Neboxian
Monday, July 21, 2008
Chart School : The Buy /Sell Zone Chart 1
This Series of Charts will teach you how to Identify the High Profit / Low Risk Entry points
Friday, March 14, 2008
The Bear Is Here
100 week weighted moving average ...each week has closed lower
and below the 100 period moving average begining the first
week of January 2008...also the 100 week and 20 week moving
average crossed down in the past two weeks....
..we are officially in a declining bear market..
..expect to visit the lows of the past 4 to 6 years over the next
60 weeks.........NeboxianFor the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.prophet.net/
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