Are We There Yet? The Top That Is

First post of 2010

It has been a while but I really haven"t had any real compelling reason to trade this topping action.

But now we are beginning to see Mr. Market show his hand with a very convincing down week.

we have a perfect 5 wave structure along with a price rejection at the 2008 63% and 2007 50% key fib levels . In addition a break of the upward March an July 2009 trend lines.

The market sold off this week and is now resting on the Dec 2009 low as well as a 50% retracement of the Nov 2009 low.

Monday I expect a bounce after an opening gap down back up to the 1120 level before a resumption of another down week.

If this the Top , we would expect to see lower highs and lower lows in the
days and weeks ahead.

on the 60 and 15 min chart I have outlined how I think the week will play out...

Merry Christmas Morning

Happy Holidays

Have a Cookie too....

SPY A Perfect Doji Close

A Perfect Doji close is indecision.

SPY Closing at the top of the Rectangle just barely a new high daily close.

Overnight the world markets are showing softness and the Euro /USD is down as well .

The Spy will open Gap down @ 111.25 and I expect another return to the 1085 level with a Friday close about 110 ish due to options expiration.

Seasonality suggests this week of Dec is very Bullish and I think this is what every one expects but the market is give the unexpected so stay tight on the stops .

The big risk today is a higher close and if that happens we will go higher up to Spx 1120-1135

Inverted Head and Shoulders Break Out

This what a good Head And Shoulders break Out looks like...notice the big build in volume at the break....

This is also an excellent long Entry point.
Expect some test of the neck line this week.
ALB is on the move to higher ground.
$40 is the target

Ag Chems Are on the Move

TNH Terra Nitrogen Asymmetrical Triangle long trade is good for $4 up to D and then $4 down to E then I expect to see break to the up side for $8 more ....By Feb 2110

International Markets are Weakening

This Asymmetrical Triangle Tracked out perfectly and broke down.

Lower Highs and Lower lows....Th real test will be to crack the horizontal support line below this level.

Some ask me if I think the Candle Wicks are significant to drawing pattern trend lines and I think the wicks tell us a lot about the sentiment of the day but it is the close that really counts.

The softening of the International Markets only supports the last 3 oil field charts I posted..

I expect a retest of the rising trend line first .

Another possibility is, this is the "c" wave of a long Descending Triangle with an apex at mid Febuary 2010

Diamond Offshore Triangle Pattern

Descending Triangle Pattern.

This is not finished and could follow the Green path and break to the up side after the holidays.

If This Pattern is going to break to the down side , we should see it happen Monday Or Tuesday and follow the red path..

These Are + $5 legs ....so they are very tradeable..

Suncore Head and Shoulders

SU Suncore Head and Shoulders Pattern . I expext to be at the neckline Monday or Tuesday.

This may not break untill after FridayOptions Expiration .


To trade this Wait until a daily close below the neckline. And a large spike in daily Volume.
The Target would be 26 ish with a resistance at 29 to push through.

It is important to remember this is a rectangle Pattern also and if the neckline dose not break we can easily revisit the top of the right shoulder and head....Pay attention to how price reacted the last two times it touched this level.....always look to the left for past support and resistance structures where price can react .

SNP China Petro

Snp Triangle ..... This is the place where the pros buy ...notice the last two times the buyers where aggressive but this time there is indecision. Monday will tell us what to do. It will take 15 days to get back to 90.00 and less than a week to go to 70.00 if this breaks down.

To trade this Wait until the close Monday to place your order.

SPY-der Monkeys at War

Hey all Spy-der Monkeys ...
In My career as a Trader, this is the most difficult and scariest trading tape I have ever seen.

With an Spx 1086 to 1112 range and professional Island Reversal gaps every other 2 sessions , It is almost impossible to effectively Day trade. The past month feels like we are on a March of Doom....

Something is going to break and break hard..Can't say what direction ..so be ready

I am thinking next week early will show us some direction.

Until then I am going to do some Options Break Point and Swing trading Holds overnight for 1 to 3 days of a few selected individual picks ... such as AAPL,GS,POT,IBM,Rimm, and a few others...I will post some charts over the weekend

Market TAO Wednesday

Hard to say where we go today but it looks like we gap up to spx 1095 and run to 1100 then slowly sell off rest of day ..... ending in a Doji

My spy plan is to sell the Gap and run up 110.00 and exit at or below 109.20

Market TAO Monday

Markets are still in a sideways range not much has changed . Fed Chairman Bernackie Spoke around noon and the market sold off a bit after he finished. His mind set has not changed for the near term. Took two small scalp trades . I am standing on sidelines waiting for a clear direction...

Wild Ride This Week

Market TAO Thursday

One More Day ...Ground Hog Thursday....The Rectangle Pattern is still in play.

Price was rejected today at upper resistance and sold off in the first hour then paused for the remainder of the day until the last 30 min's then totally Tanked down to the 50% fib!

I expect price to retrace back to the upside at the open at least 50 % of today's range SPX 1105 up to 1110 area then sell off again into the close. A good target would be the 1070-75 area with an unfilled gap..

Past Transport Rectangles Resolve to the Upside

Transports 4 Tops and Rectangles

Dow Transports 4th attempt to break to the upper resistance.

Doji Day

Doji Day and Rectangle Top Day 16

Not much to say here.....

we will see how the Asians and Europeans do overnight.

Target is still SPX 1085 unless we break and close above the Rectangle

Market TAO Wed 12-0209

Rectangle Top still in play...Day 15

Overnight ES futures remained in a 1110 to 1105 range. The Euro/USD is trading in a narrow range as well but looks to be turning to the down side .

I expect Spx will put in a Doji day today with another test of the yesterday high and a 50% retracement of of yesterday range .

Keep an eye on the XLF it held back all day when all other sectors where (+) 1 to 2 % .... MM maybe setting up for a catapult type cannonball push to the up side .

We are seeing a rare but possible Triple Top if this 1112.50 SPX fails ..so it can go either way.

We can also plan for a Gap fill at SPY 110.10 .......Then a Bounce up from there.....

My Spy plan today is to Sell up to the high of yesterday and exit at or below the The Gap fill....

Be Nimble today...

Market TAO Tuesday 12-01-09

Topping Rectangle .....

Range Trading for the last 14 days.

A break above 1112 or below 1086 is what I'm looking for . Otherwise, the range is the trade zone.

If the current cycle continues, we should see a move down to the red oval in the next 3 days.

More Info on Topping Rectangles

visit this link http://thepatternsite.com/recttops.html



Overnight the es futures are up and the open SPY is a gap up....

My Spy plan is to buy the opening gap about 110.80 and run up to 111.10 - 50 and exit trade.....
this looks to be a potential trend day up so an attempt to fade the rally may not work...most times a strong rally day will close at the HOD ....keep an eye on the USD and XL's for divergence