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Sunday, September 20, 2009

The Week Ahead 9-20-09

Spx 500 Chart
Price has popped out above the riseing wedge upper trend line. This could mark the usual over shoot typical of the climax of wedge tops.

The Ascending Triangle in last two days is a head scratcher here. This could signal a final push up. The market is clearly headed for the Dow 10,000. The Transports are leading the way and the Spx will most likely follow along in the same general direction. Earnings will begin to trickle in next week and the Big Houses are in pump mode with all the upgrades last week ....expect more.

The dark blue oval is the upper target the orange dotted line is the long range trend line off the all time high 1576 on Oct 07 .

It's hard to say how price will get there in the next 7-10 days. The ovals are the probable reaction areas for price corrections and direction change.

I Think the market is topping out up here but it may take a few more weeks before we see Mr. Market's real intent.

  • The Markets are at extremes for now.
  • The Bullishness is at 2004 levels.
  • Vix is at the 10 year low trend line.
  • There are a record number of stocks above the 200 day moving adverage ...
  • The Us Dollar is at 18 month extreme lows.
  • Side line cash is moving out of money markets and more in to better intrest and dividend earning vehicles and not as much is avaliable to go into common equities.

Untill the fever breaks ,if you want to be in the market, it is safer to remain in a buy the dips mode with tight stops.

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