The Euro Dollar is chuggin along.....getting into target area ...expect the direction to change or reverse next week
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Saturday, May 30, 2009
ProphetCharts: FXE
The Euro Dollar is chuggin along.....getting into target area ...expect the direction to change or reverse next week
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ProphetCharts: $SPX
This is a weekly chart of $SPX....Notice the Gravestone Doji followed by a Tall White Candle on the week of Jan 25 ,09 then again on the week of May 20 ,09......also the decending triangle.
Key Levels always get test befor the troops leave the battle field...check the 9 weeks down vs 9 weeks up symmetry as well..start at top of Jan to top of may ..an 18 week cycle top to top.....
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Friday, May 29, 2009
ProphetCharts: SPY
Wow.....Got it just right! see the previous chart on the weekend post...this was a very hard price action to day trade.....it just go's to show if you plan out ahead and take a good entry with a proper stop.....place the trade and hold your nose.....it is very hard to do even for the most experienced traders.....I try to stick to the plan because almost avery time I deviate or or become impulsive....it cost money ...and I end up unhappy with my self. mY best work comes when I take a core position of 50% of my trade commitment and make my best entry...the balance i use to trade the swings during the day...I'll post a new game plan for next week on sunday
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Day trade Journal 5-29-09 Friday
10:30 am etwe opened with a small gap up then a run up to 91.70 the secondary descending trend line...price moved back down to 9080 then rallied back to and tested high.... Xls are testing top of their ranges and the Tick is leaning to the bull side with one quik tick above +800.... looks like we hover here a while....volume is dropping off ......
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1045 am et ....Index's are felling back into yesterday ranges..... but sell volume is not really there.
tick is making lower highs but none greater than -800...
es futures is holding 910.........
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1100 et ...energi looks to be the only thing above the trade range...all the indexes are testing the move back down in to range as well....
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1145 et Indexes are at or below close and below Vwap spy is holding better than other three qqqq is leading down ....there is not alot of real selling pressure follow thru ....
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1234et....every thing i see is screaming to me, sell.....but the tick is stuck leaning on its bull side....
markets are thin and volume is low on this last little rally ....telling me bear flag .....but we need to see some selling pressure in the after noon session.....hard to say what we get for now...
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2:00 et....spy has tested and fallen back down through yesterdays trade range 3 times looks like there may be an evening star pattern building on the 30 min chart.....it is rare that spy dosen't tag the daily pivot line at least once in a session....
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4:05 et .....spy.... Whoa.....didn't see that huge short covering spike coming in last 10min's...
it looks like every short in the world was running for the big glowing exit sign.......I put on a nice
put play near the top of the spike 1 min bfor the close....these end of month day spikes nearly always gap down come monday and retest fridays range ....but just in case i got my stop in too...
have a good weekend...!
Pre Market TAO 5-29-09 Friday
The Daily TAO is Green...... Over night the world got Bullish .....world stocks r up....gold is up......oil is up......yields r down ....the dollar is just tanking........
The S&P Futures are running up to the Wednesday high of 914 and could touch the the 919 before the turn back down........the SPY will most likely gap up on the open to 91.75 .....I will sell the high of the first 30 mins .....and exit at the daily pivot zone 90.60 ish
The pending economic releases this am ......Chicago Pmi at 8:30.... prelim GDP ......Mich sentiment at 9.55 et....may make the wheels spin an extra 30 min's before the market get traction....
Thursday, May 28, 2009
ProphetCharts: UNG
Ok....if you missed the Buss on UNG ...it looks like a pull back to 14.50 -14.25 would be a good place to jump in.....it would be the last low risk entry on this lift....
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ProphetCharts: ESM9
This is a Daily of the S&P E-Mini 500....The Futures market trades Globaly 24 hrs........
Looks to me like the Bears are in a line Up for some Porage..... Or will Goldie Bull trample the picknic?
Something is gona give .....I think the Oil market is ready to break down ....and Bond Yields are going to push the market down....
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Day Trade Journal 5-28-09
10:23 am e t......so far trade is going as planed ......sitting at 89.40 building a contiuation bear flag ...looks like more down
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10:26: well below yesterday range with retest ....looking to break current low in a few min's
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1045 am.....bulls putting up a fight here moved back into range ...but no +750 yet
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1130 am .....got a non comfermation reversal .ad broke hard back in to range hugging the 90.32 for now
didnt cover back when i should have at 89.25...........but looks like we ma have a swing back down net tick is back to zero .......i just get mad at my self when i dont stick with the plan .....it always delivers pain.......
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1152 am......here is a good lesson...... when you file a plan stay with it.....because the trading gods winn punish you ........we gave it all back......so far.....
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2 pm price pulled back down to 89.75 and i covered ......
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3:07pm looking to a final hour sell off short at 91 .16 with stop just above 91.30
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4oopm ....wow what a whip of a day ! held position over nite we look to be at the top of this range and we closed at the s&P futures key resistance area of 905 ....we'll see in am how it dose
the gap was up to day expect gap to be down in am........
made some $$$$ today but i violated my trade plan buy not covering when i should have....
so i feel like i fought it all day......and dont feel like i did any good.......these markets are moving so fast if i step away to use the bath room it can take off .... .....ok it was an ok day ...so ill stop banging myself on the head...
ProphetCharts: SPY
Per Market TAO......Chart SPY .....looks to be an open to touch the pivot in the first 30 min's ...then we expect a reversal...
todays TAO is RED
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Pre Market TAO 5-28-09 Thursday
Today's TAO is RED
Overnight Asia did ok overall a up day ..... European markets look flat range bound.....The dollar got a 100 pip bounce up and could range 80 to 81.5 till Monday.....the overnight S&P futures look like it is putting in a bear flag and is breaking down.....we could see a small gap up at the open in the SPY.... I am still following the N vs N chart I posted over the weekend and it looks like this last 2 days are ( 1.5 days up and .5 day down) ...we need a full day follow through today to the down side to complete this series of cycles...so the Bears need to get busy.....
A few other things to watch today ....
The XLF and XLE are at the apex of a symmetrical triangle on the 30 day 30 min .............and UNG looks very interesting as well....
ok back to spy.....if we gap up and run up, my plan is to short the spy at the high in first 30 min's with a first target of yesterdays range low 89.50 , 2nd tgt 89.25 , 3rd 88.20.........
.....if we open even to flat we will go with the directional bias after the first 30 min's
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Day trade Journal Wed 5-27-09
10:12.... First 30 min went as expected looks like a range with a pole to pole swing of tick
-1000 to +1000 ......and now at zero ......price spiked above Tuesdays high and was rejected quickly back into yesterdays range.........looks like a range of 90.95 up to 91.60 for now.
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10:35 ...could have an ascending triangle on spy ....we have flat top and higher lows 5 min chart..
watch for another bounce at 91.01 ish ...got another +800 tick.... look for a firming up as the am moves forward...
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10:55 ...Tick si leaning to bullish ....we are on 45 min cycles low to low look for next bounce @ 11:30am et... at 91.13 this would a good buy point with stop just below 90.92
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2:pm et......price tagged the top of day range and quickly retreated back down to Tuesday range never gave me a entry opportunity......broke down thru trend line and is now resting on the 5o%fib......along with a-900 and -1160 neg tick........ we'll see if the fiddy holds...
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2:15 et ...brok tru 50 fib..and retested took short trade at 90.40 with stop just above 50% fib
target is yesterday pivot line 89.90
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2:27 ....closed short trade @ 89.90 thats .50 cents .......good trade...we risked .20 cent to make .50 cent thats 2 1/2 to 1 ratio....
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Pre Market TAO 5-27-09
After yesterdays huge climb, we can expect a bit of a rest ...todays TAO is Green.. market will most likely open near to yesterday close.. we should remain bullish but wait for the pullback ..... today may be a range bound day digesting yesterdays gain...... watch for10am mortgage apps report
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
The first 30 min's is Key
In the first 30 minutes the market is going through a price correcting and balance phase. This comes from the rollover of activity during the night before ....after the US market closes, Asia , Australia , and Europe are Trading throughout the night. This momentum is absorbed at the US market Open....Hence the gap will occur....there are several possibilities once the gap presents it self...
1. Gap opens within previous days trading range.
2. Gap opens above previous days range.
3. Gap opens below previous days range.
First thing to watch for is the TEST... expect that Price will always test the Support/resistance closest to where the gap opened........will it pass through or be rejected?
Here is where the NYSE Tick comes into play. The tick records the cumulative buying and selling each minute ...if above zero , there are more buyers than sellers .....if below zero there are more sellers than buyers.........
with the Tick there are significant ranges
- 500 to + 500 indicates a neutral bias
-750 to + 750 indicates a bearish or bullish bias and leans to a range bound price action.
greater than -800 or + 800 indicates a trending bias......up or down.
Volume is the next thing to watch...
now volume is a real time relative measure of the number of shares traded....
the key observation to make is how volume moves in relation to price movement.
(try to visualize driving a car and volume is the gas peddle)
1. volume moving up, more gas / price moving up the hill faster = buyers are in charge
2. volume moving up, more gas / price moving down the hill faster = sellers are in charge
3. volume moving down ,less gas / price moving up the hill slower = buyers are drying up
4. volume moving down , less gas / price moving down the hill slower = sellers are drying up
Let's pull the two above charts together.
min 1.... gap down below previous day lower range with big volume/ - 300 tick.
min 2 thru 7..... price is rejected from trend line and lower support zone...price is going up and relative volume is flat to rising ,tick is flat remaining around -300 area....
min 8 -10 .....price drops slightly with a volume spike , tick remains in -500 range (no big sellers)
min 9 - 18.... price rises with one test of lower support zone (long wick suggests strong buyers) with rising volume, tick moves above zero and up to +800 ( big buyers are moving with +800 blocks of shares per minute) also we have a rising 20 ma cross of 50ma ,, and 50 ma is rising above zero line....Potential to trend up
min 19-30.... price hugged up against pivot line (center line of daily trading range) with increasing to flat volume , tick continues to range above zero up to +800 .....Bullish
min 31...... gives us a buy signal with a break away and close above pivot and rise in volume along with a +800 tick.....
right here is the buy....with a stop just 3 points below the candle at 20 min's
ProphetCharts: SPY
WOW!.......what a fast Bounce today.......my analysis over the weekend, I neglected to draw in the lower purple assending line connecting the lower low and the higher low from 5-17 to 5-21....and i also missed the over nite low support bounce of the s&P futures which run 24 hrs globaly....had i done a better job here, we might have caught this bounce....that said, i still didn't think we would get a straight up rocket!...the bears didn't even put up a fight at the 89.25 pivot or the 90.00 friday top or the 50% fib...maybe we get a bit of a correction down to the 90.50 to 90.00 zone and jump on his rally up to the 92.00 target zone.....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Here we have a continuation Flag or a double top...we wait for the break away up or down .....
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Spy chart 11:30 AM 5-24
Look at this Volume ...it has beed going down all morning .....i suspect ..this spike is loosing steam
ProphetCharts: FXE
The Euro is moving to the up side in this classic Double bottom "W"
Pattern this a sign of the continuing US Dollar weekness..
Remember weak Dollar = strong commodities and stocks for the day trader the UUP 2x bull and UDN 2x bear will be a good Us dollar trade
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Pre Market Tao
We are In a Trading range 88.26 to 92.25 With weak volume.....the Spy has moved to a some what neutral overall stance.....The XL'S are not showing any sign of a strong trend.. this week could be the test of last weeks low 88.15 ......if we break out to the down side expect strong spike and then a support/resistance test...... if we bounce off the 88.15 to the up side we could go back to last weeks highs 92.00 area......S/p futures look to a opening gap down and we are well below the pivot ....we are still in holiday mode today and will observe the first 90 min's of trading and look for a sign to move in......three day holiday weekends are prone for reversals so the potential to get trapped in a trade is high....keep your powder dry ....
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9:30 oppened gap down and quickly moved back up to fridays low and back into fridays trade range and
gap is filled ....Nyse Tick is neutral
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10 am: spy moved to pivot and is now looks to test fridays high ...XL's just started to move back into fridays range as well ...to m4 pivot point nyse is tending to the bull side ....we wait to see if we break fridays high and hold ...if we do we could have a up trend day....
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10:15 spy filled thurs gap.....now we wait for pull back to89.80 to 90.00 area to buy in....
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10:30 xlb,xli , xle, so far have not reached thursdays gap this could be a sign of non correlation
to the other XL's ....which is a potential reversal sign ......the only thing pushing market up at this point is XLK , XLY , and sort of The XLF ........I dont like to chase this type of fast spike,,,, they tend to kick one in the teeth most of the time.....we wait to see if laggers pull up or the leaders pull down......
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12.00 Im just not convinced this spike can continue ....the dollar has filled its opening gap and looks to bounce up.....the Xle still hasn't joined the rally.....xlf is stalled at the thursday / fri high...and volume is not really there......I think the bulls are gona get their fingers caught in the cookie jar...
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12:42 Things are starting to look like this rally may hold......nyse tick has stayed bullish all AM
the XL'S Are all moving together... and Volume is starting to pick up ...with 3 narrow range doji's in a row ......will take a small position at 90.98 ....with a stop at 90.80
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12:47 really dont"t like the action to day ....i pulled off that last trade....will wait a bit longer
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12:57 .....2 mins after I jumped out...price jumped up .........wait for the pull back......91.00
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2:pm all the Xl's look to be at or approaching their upper resistance zones .......this Rally has been very sharp and unexpected this early in the week.......can't count the number of 10 am spikes that reverse and sell off with a vengeance.......so i tend to be overly cautious.....
but the markets are what they are......some times you get it right and some times you get it wrong...........my weekend analysis was right ....just didnt think it would happen this fast.....i have to say i missed a great Tell this AM ...over nite the S & P Futures printed an over nite low of 876.55... a major support level .....some it is impossible to have your eyes in all the right places.........still think this spike is getting tired....we will wait...
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3:10 I put in a short trede at 91.00 with a target 90.50 .... stop at 91.20
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3:50 having a bad internet feed today .......had to re boot 10 mins b4 close......
dont see this short moving .......best to close even....
Monday, May 25, 2009
Todays TAO Insight
AOL is going to get an x- Google exec for their new CEO........AOL still exists?......Ahaa....Really?
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Todays Tao Insight
50 Cent and Bette Medler to do a Duet?....... Is this really a sign of the impending apocalypse?
Chart 6 Support and Resistance
This is a chart pattern called an ascending triangle.....a consolidation period, usually seen in the 4th wave of the up cycle...see video on triangles....this is a time period accumulation phase where price retraces sideways rather then down.....as price moves up to resistance buyers are reluctant to pay a higher price as a result the price is rejected and falls , not to a lower low but a higher low than the previous low. This means the sellers are drying up on each consecutive Dip. Eventually the sell orders completely stop and the buyers take control (usually on the 3rd attempt) pushing price thru the resistanceline and a surge to the up side begines....
ProphetCharts: SPY
This is a very Critical support line if SPY breaks down here, there is not much to stop the drop to the target zone....if we bounce we could reach the upper target in 2 days .......also notice the potential for an decending triangle if we do bounce up .....we also have a possiblel Double Top to consider ....
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ProphetCharts: SPY
Beginning with a pattern of 5 up and 5 down days , we now have the possibility of a 3 up 3 down days pattern completing.
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Saturday, May 23, 2009
ProphetCharts: SPY
Markets run in cycles .....this chart suggests a continuation of that cycle to nex bottom in next 4-5 weeks
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Todays TAO Insight
Obama signed a bill to curb wasteful military defense spending........but wasteful economic defense spending......I suppose is still OK
Friday, May 22, 2009
live market trading 5-22
we are at the top of yesterdays high and has failed twice we are now short at 89.71 witha stop just above the high89.80
Pre Market TAO
With the holiday weekend here the market is prone to be a bit erratic ,,unexpected reversals can b common the day before a 3 day weekend ...... The daily TAO is neutral to bearish ......expect a trade range in the SPY 89.50 to 88.50 .....there shouldn't be any major moves ....if anything an open to the up side and a side ways action to European close at noon then a a lot of erratic movers while the big boys hedge up their book for the week.....
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Todays Tao Insight
In 2008 the oil company's said they had to raise prices because demand was way up.....
In 2009 the oil company's said they have to raise prices because demand is way down.....
go figure??........NeboXian
real choppy day ...jumped outat 88.85 after big boys registered some big block buys here..... we had a small loss here ...because we had the spike up while i was making last post ....and haden't moved my stop in.......over all a wash for the day ..... there is always tomorrow......or next tuesday......it is most likely a good idea to just take a long week end ......but i will be here till europe is closed about noon..... remember ...dont chase the trade...... and always have a stop in mind before you enter the trade...Neboxian
Mixed currents are hard to read some times......some times it's hard to get it right ...but see had you gone long there would be pain about now....we got a big spike to the down side....this is good...now we watch for a corrective bounce to jump on the down train...I'm thinking 88.75 test with a stop at 89.06with the a target of88.20 ......i don't like to chase these runs ....wait till they come back to a managable entery point ....if it dosen't come back then we just missed this trade....but the market will be there tommarrow
Vix is rising and dollar has bounced back a bit.....enrgy XLE is starting to roll as well as Xlf financial
we are down at the am lows for test ......we wait for a bounce back up to top of range before we jump back in to the short side......
.NeboXian Says
.the best way to lose money is to trade against the prevailing trend ....which is down to day.......problem is if you go long here and the trade goes against you ...then your trapped in the trade hoping it will come back to let you out.....and it also absorbs your mental capital because you cant concentrate on new opportunities b cause you brain wont let the losing trade go ......so you usually lose more .....its a vicious cycle.........the only thing you control here is when you jump in and how much you are willing to risk if the trade moves against you.
we will pull off this trade at a small profit..... the dollar is tanking in the last hour and energy is picking up steam to the up side .....we will step aside till 90 min's b4 the close..... and see how it looks...typically if the dollar is dropping, foreign investors will try to pile in and this can cause equity's to rise ...along with commidties like oil and gold.....with the pending holiday week end, volume is off and we are not seeing good follow thru....
we retraced back to 89.20 on relative low volume and there are no big block buyers moving in ....all xl's are moving together ......so we are more than likely to be in a 89.25 to 88 .80 range ....well see in 30 min's.....iff we break above89.25 and close above the range it is time to consider to close out trade if you did nt take you profit at 88.80
Pivot point 91.06 ...we are bearish at open below pivot ...looks like we open gap down and the momentum could carry spy down to support at 89.40 b4 bounce ....jobs are as expected and the dollar is in pause from the steady decline... pilly fed at 10 am et... so it could be that bad news is really ok today ...be carefull... trade in small amounts and use tight stops ..... if we get down to 89.40.....expect a large in flow of bulls to push the market back to 92.26
premarket TAO
SPY..... Today the Market TAO will be a RED TAO down .... .....Expect a gap down on the open ....after the initial sell off momentum expect a reversal 30 min"S into open...... price should then attempt a rally up to yesterday close 90.50 to fill the Gap.....key .....if price fails to rise above the open, then expect a sell off to begin...if price continues up .....SELL at or up to 91.20 ish with an exit target in the mid to upper 89's.....next post will be 30 mins into open
Follow me daily with my SPY Trades
The SPY is an ETF which tracks the S& P 500 Futures .....follow along and learn to Day Trade With me Live ....I will post my trade action in real time thru out the NYSE trade day..... in addition I will post my reason for taking the trade and the exit target .. ....Check in Early for the daily pre market Game Plan .....NeboXian
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